2024 Olympic Basketball Preview and Bets: Is Team USA still a betting value?

The summer is typically a slow season for sports. Sure, we have baseball and golf, and the ramp-up to the start of NFL season is always interesting. But the day-to-day sports calendar is far less populated than during other seasons.

That said, that changes once every four years.

The Summer Olympics will kick off on Friday, and it brings a host of sports betting opportunities to the table. Want to bet on stuff like archery, badminton, and canoeing? It’s 100% possible. Matthew Freedman and Jason Weingarten did a great job breaking down some of the ins and outs of betting on the Summer Olympics.

Of course, there’s also Olympic basketball. Team USA will square off against 11 other nations to try to bring home the gold for the fifth straight time. Since the Dream Team debuted in 1992 – and NBA players were allowed to compete – the US has failed to win the gold medal only once.

However, it feels as though the gap between the USA and the rest of the world is shrinking.

They dropped a game at the 2020 Olympics before eventually taking home gold, and they’ve had some sketchy results in their 2024 tune-ups. The US roster is also aging, with their three most important players (LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry) all on the backside of their careers.

Can anyone prevent the US from taking home the gold in Paris, or will the Americans steamroll their way to another victory?

Let’s dive into everything you need to know and some best bets for the 2024 Olympic Basketball competition.

Olympic Basketball Rules and Format

Legendary international scout and coach Fran Franschilla has compared the NBA and FIBA to speaking Spanish and Portuguese: they sound the same, but they’re ultimately different languages.

On paper, most of the key rule changes shouldn’t have a huge impact on the American squad. The 3-point line is a bit shorter, while zone defenses are fully permitted. That means there’s no defensive three-second rule, so big men can plant two feet in the paint without fear of repercussions.

The biggest difference is that once a ball hits the rim on a shot attempt, it can be interfered with by any offensive or defensive player. In other words, if a ball is rolling around on the rim, you can jump up and swat it away or grab it and dunk it home.

The NBA players are obviously all aware of these rules – but they’re not fluent in them. The teams and players with more experience in the international game are proficient in utilizing them. We’ve seen that play out as a negative for the US in the past.

As for the format, we start with three four-team groups. The groups are laid out as follows:

Group A

Australia
Canada
Greece
Spain

Group B

France
Germany
Japan
Brazil

Group C

Serbia
South Sudan
Puerto Rico
USA

The top two teams from each group automatically advance to the knockout round, along with the two best third-place teams. Once you advance to the knockout stages, it becomes a single-elimination bracket-style tournament. Ultimately, a loss in the group stage isn’t a death sentence, but you have to be perfect once you get past that.

Group A is widely considered to be the toughest group of the bunch. Spain is the No. 2 team in the FIBA international basketball rankings, while Australia took home the bronze in 2020 and is ranked No. 5. Canada has the most NBA talent outside of the United States, while Greece features arguably the best player in the world in Giannis Antetokounmpo. No team is a lock to make it out of that gauntlet.

Group B should be pretty comfortable for Germany and France. France is ninth in the FIBA ranks, but that clearly undersells the amount of talent on that squad. Japan and Brazil are bottom-four teams in this tournament, so it would be a shock to see either team finish in the top two.

Group C is headlined by the USA, while Serbia features three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Puerto Rico might have a chance at reaching the knockout rounds via a third-place finish, while South Sudan is the worst team in the field. If the USA and Serbia don’t advance out of this group, it will be a disappointment of epic proportions.

2024 Olympic Basketball Bets

USA to Win Gold Medal (-400; FanDuel)

The USA is the deserving favorite to win the gold medal. The question is – at what point does this bet stop becoming a value?

They’re priced at -500 across most of the industry, but there is a -400 available at FanDuel. That seems a smidge low to me. -400 translates to an implied probability of 80%, and the US has won gold in seven of eight Olympics with NBA players (87.5%).

The gap between the US and the field has narrowed, but this is not the same situation as when the team settled for bronze in 2004. They did not send their A-team to Athens, but we will undoubtedly have our best squad in Paris.

Jul 10, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; USA guard Steph Curry (4) celebrates scoring on Canada during the first quarter of the USA Basketball Showcase at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

On paper, this team compares favorably to whatever previous version of USA basketball you want to compare it to. LeBron, Curry, and Durant are an amazing big three. Jayson Tatum and Anthony Davis are top-10 players worldwide. They have an excellent group of youngsters (Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton) and role players (Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White) to help fill the gaps. The US even managed to steal Joel Embiid away from Cameroon!

Are there some scenarios where this team fails to bring home the gold? Sure. But are there way more scenarios where this team absolutely dominates? You bet.

Whatever weaknesses this team may have with international basketball should be easily masked by pure raw talent. Expect a fifth straight gold medal.

Winner Without USA – Germany (+800; DraftKings)

I understand that betting a -400 favorite isn’t for everyone. Still, that’s the only bet I’m willing to make on the actual gold medal winner.

However, DraftKings does offer a “winner without” category, meaning that you can bet on which team will go furthest after the United States. If the US wins gold, whoever wins silver will win in this market.

Canada and France are the two favorites in this department, but I really like the value with Germany at +1100. Germany gave the US everything they could handle in an exhibition contest on Monday. They lost by merely four points despite shooting an ice-cold 35.8% from the field and 28.9% from 3-point range. If a few additional shots go in the basket, they very easily could have come out on top.

This team doesn’t have the same natural talent that some of the other squads in the field do, but they’re led by Dennis Schroder, Andreas Obst, and Franz and Moritz Wagner. Those guys have gone toe-to-toe with the best in the world before, and they’re not afraid of the competition. They won a gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, beating the US in the semifinals and Serbia in the championship.

I think this team is being severely undervalued in the betting market. I have them ranked as the fourth-best team, just barely behind France and Canada. I like playing them to be the best non-US squad, as well as to win Group B (+180; Caesars) and take home a medal (+250; DraftKings)

France Stage of Elimination – Quarterfinals (+160; DraftKings)

France is going to have the benefit of homecourt in the Olympics, and they are going to be a force to be reckoned with with Victor Wembanyama. Rudy Gobert is also tailor-made for FIBA basketball, where his rim protection becomes even more valuable.

However, I worry about this team’s backcourt. You can’t survive without guards, and this team is severely lacking in that department compared to the other top teams in the world. Nando de Colo and Evan Fournier are not striking fear into the hearts of anyone.

This team has also struggled in the lead-up to the tournament. They’ve dropped their two tune-up games, albeit to good Canada and Australia squads.

Ultimately, I view France as the anti-Germany – they’re the most overvalued squad in this field. I still fully expect them to get out of the group stage, but I expect them to be underdogs in their first knockout matchup.

LeBron James to Lead USA in Scoring (+320; FanDuel)

James was recently announced as the flag-bearer for the US at the Olympics, an honor that has never been given to a male basketball player. Expect him to end his international tenure with a bang.

Having led the US in scoring in their last two exhibition contests, he should be among the team leaders in minutes played. He’s also less reliant on his jump shot than guys like Curry and Durant, so his game-to-game scoring should be pretty consistent.