Best Bets for Team USA vs. Puerto Rico: Expect US dominance to continue

It’s been two games and two easy victories for Team USA. They easily covered the spread in their first matchup vs. Serbia (and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic), but they were unable to do the same vs. South Sudan. They were never in jeopardy of losing – they won by 17 points – but that wasn’t enough to approach the 29-point spread.

The USA has officially qualified for the knockout round of the tournament, regardless of what happens in their final game. That said, they’re widely expected to take care of business vs. Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico has dropped their first two games of the Olympics double figures, including a 41-point loss to Serbia in their last game. The US represents a massive step up in competition, so it’s not surprising that this game features the USA’s largest spread of the tournament.

Can Puerto Rico keep things closer than expected, or will the USA cruise to an easy win? Let’s dive in.

TOP PICK FOR TEAM USA VS. PUERTO RICO

Team USA -34.0 (-115; Caesars)

Let’s be frank here. If Team USA gives this game their full attention, this should not be close. If Serbia can beat this team by more than 40 points, the USA should be able to follow suit.

The only real concern is that the USA could conceivably take their foot off the gas with a spot in the quarter-finals already locked up. However, that doesn’t appear to be their main focus. They have the No. 1 seed in the tournament in their sights, which means that point differential is going to be extremely important. To guarantee the No. 1 seed, they have to finish with a perfect 3-0 record and the No. 1 point differential.

The USA is currently +43 points through their first two games, but Germany (+33) isn’t too far behind. They do have a significantly tougher matchup in their final contest vs. France, but the USA wants to leave no doubt.

Puerto Rico has some NBA talent on their roster – specifically Jose Alvarado – but he’s a reserve player for a borderline playoff team. Team USA is filled with all-stars. Jayson Tatum didn’t play in the first game of the tournament, while Joel Embiid got the night off in the second. Tatum has been All-NBA First Team in three straight years, while Embiid has won an MVP. That’s the embarrassment of riches that the USA has at their disposal.

Head coach Steve Kerr appears to have this team’s head in the right place, so I’m not overly worried about them sleepwalking through this matchup. As long as that doesn’t happen, I like the USA to win by 35+.

OTHER BETS FOR USA VS. PUERTO RICO

Anthony Edwards Over 12.5 points (-105; Caesars)

Edwards’ scoring prop is priced at 12.5 across the industry, but the juice is different depending on the sportsbook. The over is -105 at Caesars, but it’s all the way up to -125 at DraftKings. That’s the kind of discrepancy that I’m looking for.

Edwards is a reserve player for Team USA, but he’s seen a healthy number of minutes in each of the first two contests. He had 11 points in the first game vs. Serbia, but he increased his production to 13 vs. South Sudan.

Team USA’s team total is up over 112 points for this matchup, which is a number they’ve yet to hit in the Olympics. If they score a few additional points, I could see everyone on the roster seeing a bump.

Even though Team USA is playing for point differential, this is certainly a spot where they could lean a bit on some of the younger legs. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry are all at least 35 years old, so there’s no need to put any extra minutes on their legs. Jrue Holiday is also questionable to suit up, which could open up a few additional minutes for Edwards.

Tremont Waters Under 14.5 points (-115; Caesars)

Puerto Rico pulled the plug on the starters early vs. Serbia, with only Ismael Romero logging more than 20 minutes. Waters played just 16 minutes in the loss, and he finished with only five points.

Waters has been one of Puerto Rico’s top offensive options in this tournament, but I don’t think that really matters vs. the USA. They’re simply too talented, and Waters was unable to stick around at the NBA level.