Best Bets for Team USA vs. Serbia: Can the US suppress Nikola Jokic again?

The USA men’s basketball team has officially made it to the semifinals of the Olympics. That’s not exactly a surprise – they were massive favorites heading into the tournament – and their recent string of matchups didn’t hurt, either. They’ve had three straight contests against subpar opponents, taking the court as approximately 30-point favorites vs. South Sudan, Puerto Rico, and Brazil.

The USA saved their best basketball for the first round of the knockout stages, dropping 122 points in just 40 minutes of playing time. That wasn’t just their best scoring performance of the tournament; it was the best of every team by a wide margin.

The only other squads to crack 100 in the tournament were Brazil – who the USA just eliminated – and the USA’s next opponent, Serbia. Serbia overcame a 24-point deficit in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Australia, thanks in no small part to the play of Nikola Jokic. While the USA has solidified its status as the best basketball nation on the planet, Jokic has cemented his as the best player in the world. He’s averaged 19.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game while shooting better than 60% of the field.

The USA got the best of Jokic and Serbia in the group phase. The question is – can they do it again? Let’s dive in.

TOP PICK FOR TEAM USA VS. SERBIA

USA -16.0 (-110; FanDuel)

I laid the points with Team USA in their first matchup vs. Serbia, and I’m going right back to the well on Thursday. Jokic may be the best player in the world, but the USA has the size and depth to match up with him better than anyone.

That’s not to say that the US can stop Jokic completely. They certainly didn’t in their first matchup, with Jokic racking up 25 points, eight assists, and five boards while shooting better than 50%. However, the combination of Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, and Anthony Davis can at least make his life difficult.

Even with Jokic doing his thing, the US still managed to win their last matchup by 26 points. They also took care of business vs. Serbia in the pre-tournament exhibitions, winning by 26 points in Abu Dhabi.

The formula for both contests was pretty similar. In the exhibition, the game was tied at 40 apiece in the second quarter before the USA put together a run to pull away. In the group stage matchup, Serbia jumped out to a 10-2 lead and trailed by just two points with two minutes left in the first half. However, the US managed to close the second quarter strong and ultimately pulled away in the second half.

That’s the difference between Team USA and the rest of the world. They score all game. They’ve averaged 109.75 points in their four contests, and they’ve scored at least 100 points in each outing. No other team can put the ball in the basket that consistently. The sheer volume of firepower that the team possesses can be overwhelming, with nearly every player on the roster capable of going for 20+.

I see no reason why that would change on Thursday. Serbia may have the best player, but the USA probably has the next 10.

MORE BETS FOR TEAM USA VS. SERBIA

Anthony Davis Over 9.5 points (-115; DraftKings)

Joel Embiid has served as Team USA’s starting center all tournament, but Jokic got the better of him in their group stage matchup. Embiid was -8 in his 11.4 minutes, making him the only player on the American squad with a negative +/-.

With that in mind, expect to see a lot of Davis. He was arguably their best player in their first matchup vs. Serbia, leading the team with a +28 in 19.2 minutes. He finished with just seven points, but Davis has averaged 9.5 points per game for the tournament. If he finds a few additional minutes in the Serbia rematch, I like his chances of exceeding his average.

Nikola Jokic Under 40.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111; FanDuel)

Fading Jokic is obviously scary, but if there was ever a team to do it with, it’s this one. Team USA has so many different bodies to throw at him that Jokic is going to have to work extremely hard for everything. He had 38 PRA in the group stage matchup, and he had just 29 in the exhibition. Ultimately, this number seems a bit too high.