Bets from the Group Chat Week 11. Can Jahmyr Gibbs Stay Hot?
Geoff Ulrich shares some of the Fantasy Life team’s favorite targets for week 11 of the NFL season, including Jahmyr Gibbs, DeAndre Hopkins, and more.
After another winner, we are officially rolling on bets on group parlays. Since we started this five weeks ago, we are now 3-2 on the 3-way parlays. If you have been tailing us with a one unit bet every week, you are now up +15.39 units overall.
Overall, the singular plays from the parlay section are 12-3.
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
At some point this hot streak will come to an end, but let’s ride the good momentum while we can. This week, we’re back for more and have another parlay AND multiple ladder bets for Week 11.
Group Chat Parlay
Freedman Likes: Cardinals +6.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
The Cardinals have drifted to +6.0 (opened at +4.0) and look like solid targets now that they are near a full TD on the spread. Houston has gone 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite, and their defense is just 21st in EPA per play, making it potentially difficult for them to cover this big number.
LaMarca Likes: Chiefs -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
This one feels pretty straightforward. The Chiefs … off a bye. In LaMarca’s own words:
“When Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than three points, you take it. He's 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three for his career (including playoffs)... Add in a bye week for Andy Reid and this is tough to pass up.”
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Michael Mayer over 18.5 yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: 19.5 (-110)
- Aggregate projection: 27.0 receiving yards
I love this spot for Mayer. The Dolphins have a couple of elite cornerbacks but have been weaker at guarding against the middle of the field all season, allowing the 11th most receiving yards against this year.
Mayer is in a near every down role now (88% of the snaps three weeks in a row) and got a healthy five targets from his rookie QB last week. I don’t see any reason to doubt that he can’t sail over this number for us in Week 11.
Putting it all together: +560, BetMGM SGP
- Cardinals +6.0 -110
- Chiefs -2.5 -115
- Michael Mayer over 18.5 receiving yards -117
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
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Week 11 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 11 ladder targets are below.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - Lions (BetMGM)
- Over 23.5 rec yards (-133) - play to 24.5 (-115)
- Gibbs SGP: over 49.5 rec yards / anytime TD (+475) - play to +450
Gibbs has a great matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the most receiving yards against to opposing RBs. Not only do they give up yards, making the over on Gibbs’s 23.5 total enticing, but there have already been multiple talented receiving RBs who have torched Chicago's linebacker crew for big games (Ekeler 7-45-1, Jones 2-86-1, Gibson 4-64).
Gibbs maintained a big role with Montgomery back in the lineup last week (64% route rate, 5 targets, and 34 yards receiving) and should be used a ton in this spot against a solid rush defense. I like playing the same game parlay angle and taking Gibbs to go for 50+ yards and a TD this week as a way to cash in on upside if the big game occurs.
Gibbs has already gone over 50 yards receiving once this year (just three games ago) and seems well overdue to find the end zone as a receiver given the high usage he’s seen there for the Lions.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR - Titans (DraftKings)
- 80+ rec yards (+225) - play to +210
- 100+ rec yards (+475) - play to +450
- 120+ rec yards (+950) - play to +900
If you tailed me on DeAndre Hopkins last week … I apologize. But let’s not let the past dictate our present decisions. The Titans have made steps to address their O-line (signed Calvin Throckmorton off waivers this week) and are playing a team in Jacksonville who is 6th last in sacks, and who will be down their top cornerback in Tyson Campbell (out).
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) talk about the previous play against the Pittsburgh Steelers during their game at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Penn., Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. Credit: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK
Hopkins still led the Titans in targets (8) and had numerous deep balls from Levis against the Buccaneers that went just outside his reach. It’s not like Hopkins is at risk of getting benched or downgraded in this offense either, and while the 100/120 milestone numbers I’ve placed may look optimistic, it’s easy to forget that Hopkins sailed over both those markers on just four catches against Atlanta in Week 8 (4-128-3). If I’m betting on a big outcome like this, it’s always nice to know that this is something the player has done before.
Ultimately, while last week was disappointing, it’s likely helped create an even better buy low spot on Hopkins. With Jacksonville reeling and already sporting a<div class="ssg-scm offer"></div> weak secondary (8th most passing yards allowed), going back for another dip this week on the Titans' WR1 seems prudent with the whole world now out on Tennessee.
You can tail the Hopkins ladder at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of $5 or more!
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Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Russell Wilson over 1.5 passing TDs (+160, Bet365)
- Projection: 1.5
- Cutoff: +130
Wilson overs don’t sound very appealing, but Matt did a good job in his weekly prop article on reminding us that this year’s Russell Wilson isn’t the same as last year’s.
When you look at the Vikings' defense, they have been solid the last few weeks, but this is still a team you would rather pass against (11th most passing TDs allowed) than run against, when down in the red zone (only four rushing TDs allowed to opposing RBs).
Wilson has surprisingly gone over this number in five of nine games already this year as well, suggesting that this may be closer to a coinflip than the odds suggest. Anything at +130 or better looks to offer serious value on a multiple passing TD day for Russ.
You can tail Wilson at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of just $1 or more!
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Mark Drumheller Likes: Chargers -3.0 (-110)
- Cutoff: -3.0 (-120)
Mark had this bet in the tracker early in the week and gives some pretty solid reasoning why we should like the Chargers bouncing back in this spot.
“LA is 3-0 ATS as a favorite and think they are the much more talented team in this matchup. Green Bay has played against the 5th weakest schedule so far this season and are 1-5 ATS in the last six games.”
The bottom line with Green Bay is that they are having trouble where it matters (27th in red zone offense) while the Chargers' offense remains one of the best in the league—8th in offensive DVOA.
As much as I like this spot for Love and the Packers' passing game to put up yards, it won’t shock me either if L.A. still ends up with the win and covering in this spot.
