Bets from the Group Chat Week 9. Target a Jonathan Mingo Breakout.

Welcome to Week 9 of Bets from the Group Chat.

If you’re tailing our group parlays from this segment, we’re now 1-2 after last week where the Steelers and Cam Akers were losers for us—with Pittsburgh rubbing it in by then getting a win on Thursday night. Thanks guys.

Overall, the plays are 6-3.

Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
Week 8 recap: +666 ❌

Despite the loss, you would be up a solid 3.43 units if you were tailing us with a single unit allocation, per week, to date. This week, we’re back for more and have another parlay AND a ladder bet for Week 9.

Week 9 – GROUP CHAT PARLAY

Mark Drumheller Likes: Bears +8.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Play to +8.5 (-120)

The Bears have risen all the way up to +8.5 from +5.0 where this game opened. Their offense is ugly, but chasing this much steam with the Saints also seems like a recipe for disaster.

Derek Carr is also 8-24-2 ATS for his career when he comes into a game as a favorite of 3.0 points or more. Taking the Bears at this point—whose number has shot up by 3.0 points—just off that trend alone seems warranted.

Freedman / LaMarca Like: Taysom Hill 15+ rushing yards (+240 w/ Bears +8.5, BetMGM)

Play to 18.5 (-110)
Aggregate projection: 22.4 rush yards

Hill has a 20% designed rush rate over the last two games. As Freedman noted in his prop article this week, the Saints' OC Pete Carmichael is bullish on getting Hill involved.

Oct 15, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs the ball as Houston Texans safety M.J. Stewart (29) defends during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Hill has now averaged “5.6 carries for 32.4 yards with medians of five carries and 20 yards” in 24 games under Carmichael, all of which he’s played as a non-QB.

Let’s double dip from this game. The Saints seem likely to use Hill lots again, either to help salt the game away or to provide a spark if Derek Carr struggles.

Geoff Ulrich Likes: D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rush attempts (-105, BetMGM)

Play to 13.5 (-120)
Aggregate projection: 14.4 attempts

Swift has gone over 13.5 attempts in four of his last five games. Last year, the Eagles ran Miles Sanders 18 and 21 times in two games against Dallas, and this week we also have a situation where backup Kenneth Gainwell is in the doghouse.

Swift is projected for over 14 carries this week on Fantasy Life. I think there’s a good chance he goes over this mark quite easily in Week 9.

Week 9 group parlay: +549 ⚜️(BetMGM)

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

Week 9 Ladder Plays

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.

The idea is to give yourself a better chance at hitting some bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well. You can learn more about ladder betting strategy here.

The Week 9 ladder targets are below.

Jonathan Mingo, WR - Panthers (BetMGM)

50+ rec yards (+168) - play to +150
75+ yards (+520) - play to +500
100+ yards (+920) - play to +900

I’ve been high on Mingo since he landed in Carolina. He was a great yards after the catch (YAC) accumulator in college (16.5 YPC) and landed in a weak WR room.

He hasn’t broken out yet, but it’s clear the Panthers want him to develop. He’s averaged a 96% route rate over his last two games, with a 17% (or better) target share in two of his last three starts.

Aug 25, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jonathan Mingo (15) runs during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts are 26th in yards per pass attempt against and have allowed the ninth-most yards to opposing WRs. Mingo went for 50+ last week and plays a weaker secondary who has allowed four WRs (in 8 games) to go for over 100 yards.

Seahawks Moneyline (DraftKings)

Moneyline (+225) - play to +220
-3.5 (+365) - play to +350
-6.5 (+562) - play to +550

I featured the Seahawks here last week as well, and while they didn’t hit their alternate lines for us, they did cover the -3.5 and were out to a 14-0 lead at one point in the game. In short, I think this is still an undervalued team that is really starting to come on of late, especially on defense, where they have allowed an average of 12.5 points per game over their last four starts.

The Ravens still love to run the ball (51.6% rush rate—first in league) but they will have trouble doing so in this spot against Seattle, who ranks 3rd in yards per rush against and just added a great run defender in Leonard Williams.

If Seattle can stifle the run, we could easily see a low scoring game where a couple big plays by DK Metcalf or Kenneth Walker (or Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba) would mean Seattle would not only grab the win, but potentially a win by margin (a TD or more).

If you’re playing Seattle, laddering them up to some key numbers is a nice way to get exposure to their upside and to potentially get some bigger payouts headed your way for Week 9.

You can tail the Seahawks on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of at least $5!

Bets from the Bet Tracker

Each week the betting life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.

Matt LaMarca Likes: Texans -2.5 vs. Buccaneers (-120, BetMGM)

Matt put this one up in our FREE bet tracker early in the week, and while a couple of sportsbooks have 2.5 lines hanging, the line on this game has moved to -3.0 at many spots.

I personally don’t have any reason to bet the Buccaneers, and it’s a really good matchup for CJ Stroud / Nico Collins to rekindle their early season bromance as the Buccaneers' secondary is down to 25th in yards per pass attempt against and has been allowing a ton of big games to opposing WRs of late.

Geoff Ulrich Likes: Trey Palmer under 24.5 receiving yards (-115, Unibet)

I highlighted this bet in our Week 9 prop pod this week, and while it has moved down to 23.5 yards at a couple of spots, I’d still happily play it at that number.

Palmer is the established number 3 WR in Tampa Bay, but that hasn’t meant much. He’s still competing for targets with TE Cade Otton and RB Rachaad White and as a result has gone under this total in five of six games this year.

There is also the fact that this prop last week was set at 15.5 yards. Palmer did go over that mark last week (I actually bet the over), but he needed a late fourth quarter target to do it. At this more inflated total, he’s a solid under play for Week 9.

Matthew Freedman Likes: Taylor Heinicke under 220.5 passing yards

This is another one we discussed on the Week 9 prop pod, and one I like quite a bit. As Freedman mentions in his Week 9 prop article, the trends with QBs under Arthur Smith are pretty strong—to the UNDER.

“Falcons HC Arthur Smith has been with the organization for 42 games. In 15 of them -- just 35.7% -- has one of his QBs gone over 220.5 passing yards. Eight of those games were delivered by 2021 Matt Ryan.”

I think Heinicke will provide a short term spark for Atlanta, but it’s not necessarily due to the fact that he’s going to throw for 250+ yards—it’s more because he probably won’t turn the ball over 3+ times. Either way, I like the under on this as well for Week 9.