NBA Bets Today - Bets for Monday, April 1

We’re in the final stretch. The NBA has roughly two weeks left in the regular season, with each team looking at seven or eight games before the start of the play-in tournament. While some teams already know their fate, others still have plenty to play for, and that could play a factor in our NBA bets today.

The biggest battle is taking place at the top of the Western Conference, with the Thunder, Timberwolves, and Nuggets separated by just 1.0 game in the standings.

Home court advantage could be crucial in the West, particularly for the defending champs. Denver owns the easiest remaining schedule of the trio, but the head-to-head matchup between the Nugs and Timberwolves on Apr. 10 could ultimately be the deciding factor.

There’s also a battle for the final guaranteed playoff spots in each conference. The Mavs and Pelicans have given themselves a bit of breathing room in the West, owning a two-game lead over the Kings and Suns.

In the East, the Pacers are just 0.5 games above the Heat for the No. 6 seed, and they’re dead even in the loss column. Those squads will meet on Apr. 7, setting up one of the biggest games of the year for both teams. Not only will the winner get a bump in the standings, but they’ll also secure the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Finally, there’s a battle for the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament. The Rockets have won 11 of their past 12 games, moving to just 2.0 games behind the Warriors. However, they did drop their most recent contest, while Golden State has won four straight.

Monday’s schedule is on the smaller side, with just six games to choose from. However, there is a marquee contest between the Suns and Pelicans in New Orleans. Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets for Monday’s slate.

NBA Bets Today - Monday, April 1

Phoenix Suns +1.5 at New Orleans Pelicans (-110; BetMGM)

No team has been tougher to peg this season than Phoenix. They have the talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone, but they’ve rarely managed to do so. They’re just 30-42-2 ATS this season, good for the third-worst record in basketball.

They’re coming off a 25-point loss to the Thunder in their last outing, despite OKC missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They’ll be facing another team with a key injury on Monday in what is essentially a must-win game. The Pelicans are without Brandon Ingram, who has been their second-best player for most of the year.

The Suns’ track record is concerning, but it sounds like they’re aware of the stakes. Head coach Frank Vogel told reporters that “there are some head-to-heads that have a little more value like this one,” so expect to see him manage his players that way.

The Suns have a Net Rating of +6.4 with their starting lineup on the court this season, and guys like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal could all approach 40 minutes. They last played on Friday, so they should be fully rested and ready to go. I’ll grab them as slight dogs in this spot.

Portland Trail Blazers +16.0 at Orlando Magic (-108; FanDuel)

While Portland has been a disaster this season, they haven’t been quite as bad as you might think from an ATS perspective. They’re just five games below .500, and they’ve been outscored by -9.0 points per game. Those aren’t great numbers, but it suggests the Blazers can potentially cover this number vs. the Magic.

Orlando is still playing for seeding in the Eastern Conference, but they’re far from a juggernaut. They’re 11th in Net Rating for the year, outscoring opponents by +2.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been better since the All-Star break (+6.7), but they’ve benefitted from one of the softest schedules in basketball.

Things aren’t going to get any tougher vs. the Blazers, who have lost nine straight and are coming off a 60-point defeat in their last outing. A loss that bad is almost always going to result in an inflated spread in their next contest, creating some value in the betting market. Only three of the Blazers’ nine straight losses have come by more than 15 points, including a matchup vs. the defending champs.

Ultimately, this feels like too many points. I’ll hold my nose and take the Blazers at anything better than +15.

Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 at Detroit Pistons (-115; BetMGM)

This is a battle of the walking wounded. The Grizzlies have been banged up for most of the year, while the Pistons are clearly limping toward the finish line. These squads have 12 combined players listed as out, two listed as doubtful, and three listed as questionable.

The biggest name on the questionable side – by far – is Cade Cunningham. Cunningham has posted a 33.3% usage rate this season, so he is the straw that stirs the Pistons’ drink. The Pistons are 4-9 with Cunningham out of the lineup, including three double-digit losses in their last three games without him.

The Grizzlies are a bit more accustomed to playing without their best players, so I like the idea of grabbing them as underdogs. That said, I’m going to wait to see Cunningham’s final status before locking this play in.

NBA Player Props for Monday, April 1

Ben Sheppard Over 5.5 points + assists (-105; BetMGM)

Play To: Over 5.5 (-125)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 5.5 in 63.84%

This is a bit of a niche prop since it’s only currently available at BetMGM. That said, there’s always a chance that more books add lines on Sheppard closer to tip-off, and I’m a big fan of this offering.

Sheppard has gotten the opportunity to play a bit more for the Pacers following the injury to Bennedict Mathurin, and he’s rewarded bettors who have noticed. He’s averaged 6.4 points and 1.1 assists over his past 18 outings, averaging just over 18 minutes per game.

He’s in a great spot on Monday vs. the Nets. For starters, the Pacers are pretty significant favorites, so Sheppard could see a few additional minutes if this game gets out of hand. The Nets have also been a subpar defensive squad, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency for the year. With the way the Pacers score the ball, Sheppard should be able to get to six points + assists if he sees his usual allotment of minutes.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 23.5 points (-120; FanDuel)

Play To: Under 22.5 (-110)
Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 23.5 in 71.64%

I might feel counterintuitive to play the Grizzlies and the Jackson under, but I’m showing value with both numbers on Monday. Jackson is the Grizzlies’ clear top remaining player, but he’s not exactly an elite scorer. He’s averaged 22.0 points per game this season, and he’s been below 23.5 in 36 of his 64 games played (56.25%). That includes his three most recent contests.

The Paydirt sims have Triple-J going under 23.5 points more than 71% of the time, so I’m happy to play the under at -120.

NBA Bets Today - Bets for Monday, April 1

NBA Bets Today - Monday, April 1

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NBA Player Props for Monday, April 1