NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 4: Can Jags-Bengals Go Over the Week's High Total?

Week 3 was a mixed bag for our over/under picks. Our two overs cruised to victories, with Jets-Lions and Cardinals-49ers both going well over their listed totals. Unfortunately, we weren’t particularly close on either of our under picks. Steelers-Bengals and Seahawks-Commanders both unexpectedly turned into shootouts, with Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota turning in particularly impressive performances.

This week, the sharp betting action is split pretty evenly between overs and unders. That means we should have opportunities to look for value in both areas.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for NFL Week 4.

Week 4 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Over 47.5

Best Price: -110; FanDuel
Play To: 48.0

The Saints could quietly be an over machine this season. They’ve had two games go way over the current figure. They combined for 61 points vs. the Lions in Week 1, and they hit 62 points with the Raiders in Week 3. The lone exception was a Week 2 game vs. the Ravens, where the two teams combined for “just” 41 points.

So far, New Orleans has had minimal issues scoring. They’ve racked up at least 24 points in all three games, and they rank in the top 11 in both yards and points. Their defense has also struggled to stop anyone, ranking 26th in EPA per play. That’s a really nice formula for a bunch of high-scoring affairs.

The Falcons are a bit more defensive-minded, but their defense is far from intimidating. Their offense also made big strides in Week 3 with Michael Penix back at QB. He led the offense to 35 points and 498 yards, both of which blew their previous season highs out of the water.

As long as Penix doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin, both sides should be able to put some points on the board on Monday night. The sharps have been all over this spot, pushing it up two full points since opening.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Over 51.5

Best Price: -102; DraftKings
Play To: 51.5 (-110)

This is the biggest total of the week, but it’s another game that the sharps have shown clear interest in. It hasn’t seen the same type of movement as Falcons-Saints, but there have been multiple sharp indicators on the over.

The Jaguars defense has looked strong to start the year, but they’ve done it against a trio of subpar offenses. The Browns, Broncos and Patriots have struggled to put points on the board to start the year, so this will be their biggest test by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville should be able to score plenty of points against Cincinnati. Their defense has been a bit lucky from a scoring standpoint, but they’re just 24th in yards allowed. They also just let Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers score 30 against them.

Ultimately, two of the Bengals’ first three games hit at least 57 combined points. The other game vs. the Texans looks like a clear outlier. Ultimately, I’m expecting plenty of scoring.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 39.5

Best Price: -115; DraftKings
Play To: Under 38.5

This looked like a potential playoff preview before the start of the season. Now, these two squads are merely trying to survive. The Packers have been one of the most disappointing teams in football to start the year, while the Buccaneers have failed to cover in an unfathomable 13 straight games dating back to last season.

Both sides are dealing with monster absences as well. Tampa Bay will be missing Baker Mayfield, leaving undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels as their starter. Any sort of rookie quarterback is going to struggle in his debut, let alone one who wasn’t even good enough to get drafted.

Meanwhile, the Packers have looked lost without Josh Jacobs. Their running game has been the worst in the league through the first three weeks, with MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson combining for just 3.0 yards per carry. That’s had a trickle-down effect on the passing attack, with Jordan Love posting worse numbers than in the previous two years.

Even if Green Bay can eventually get its mojo back, I don’t trust Daniels enough to hold up his end of the bargain. This game has “low-scoring” written all over it, and the sharps agree. They’ve pushed this total way down, and we still think it’s too high: our NFL Game Model has the projected total at just 37.9.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears Under 43.0

Best Price: -108; BetMGM
Play To: 42.5

This is another game where points should be at a premium. The Bears managed to survive with Case Keenum at QB last week, but that doesn’t figure to be a regular occurrence. It’s hard to score points without a competent QB, and Keenum (or Tyson Bagent) doesn’t really move the needle.

Meanwhile, the Bears defense has made tremendous strides since their disastrous showing in Week 1. They held the Vikings to just 9 points in Week 2, and they followed that up with just 7 points allowed to the Eagles in Week 3. Each of their past two games has been a comfortable under after the Week 1 eruption.

The Jets defense has also been strong through three weeks. They’re currently second in the league in yards allowed, so they’ve been as good as anyone at limiting production. The only reason their defense doesn’t rate higher in other categories is that they’re still not generating any turnovers. If they can add that to their repertoire moving forward, this could be one of the better defenses in football.

Add it all up, and this game should go under.