NFL Week 5 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

It was another wild week of NFL football. We started things with a blowout in London, and there were plenty of blowouts on the main slate as well. However, we also saw some competitive contests, with the Broncos engineering a 21-point comeback victory over the Bears.

Overall, it was another week of data to add to our evaluation of all 32 teams.

It’s never too early to start working on next week, and grabbing lines before the sharps get to them is always a good idea.

Last week, I was able to secure the Vikings at -2.5 on the early line, and they eventually closed at 5.0.

I also got value with the Bengals at +108 on the moneyline — can’t win ‘em all! — and grabbing closing line value is one of the most important steps in becoming a better bettor.

Let’s dive into five games I have my eye on heading into Week 5.

Put Some Respect on the Bills' Name

What do the Bills have to do to earn some respect at this point? I get it, they were absolutely horrible in Week 1. They lost to a Jets squad that had no business beating them with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but the Jets defense is a brutal matchup for Josh Allen. They held him in check last year, and he absolutely imploded in Week 1.

Since then, this team has done nothing but dominate.

Granted, massive wins over the Raiders and Commanders aren’t going to get anyone excited, but they won those games by a combined score of 75-13. Even with their Week 1 disaster, they were second in the league in points scored and points allowed through the first three weeks.

If you had any doubts about the Bills, they should be erased after their thrashing of the Dolphins. Miami is not an elite squad, but they did just rack up 70 points the previous week against the Broncos. The Bills were far superior on both sides of the ball, winning by four touchdowns as three-point favorites.

Following their third straight blowout win, they have to be getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers, right? Not exactly. They opened as just 4.5-point home favorites vs. the Jaguars, which suggests that they’re merely three points better than Jacksonville on a neutral field. That feels wild to me.

What have the Jaguars accomplished? I thought they were overrated when the year started, and their only wins this season are against the Colts in Week 1 and the Falcons in London. They lost by eight points at home to the Chiefs and suffered a 20-point home loss to the Texans.

Maybe there’s something that I’m missing, but I’m more than happy to lock in another early bet on Buffalo.

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Are the Dolphins Overvalued?

It’s not that difficult to pick apart most team’s resumes in the modern NFL. We did it all season with the Eagles in 2022, and they were good enough to nearly win the Super Bowl. There are only so many “legitimate” teams to measure yourself against.

The Dolphins failed their first real test of the season on Sunday.

Excluding the blowout win over the Broncos, this hasn’t been a particularly impressive team. Their offense is undoubtedly elite, but their defense is capable of giving back everything when they’re on the field. They managed to escape Los Angeles with a two-point win over the Chargers, and they nearly let the Patriots come back against them in Week 2.

The Dolphins will return to Miami for a home showdown with the Giants in Week 5. New York has been awful to start the year, and there’s a chance they lose again on Monday Night Football. However, they should have some reinforcements on the way soon. Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley might be their two best players on offense, and both players seem close to suiting up.

Ultimately, I’m happy to grab the Giants if this number touches double-digits. If Thomas and Barkley return, I think this number will be a few points lower by kickoff.

Is it Time to Buy the Jets?

I’m writing this on Sunday night, so I’ve yet to see how the Jets fare on Sunday night against the Chiefs. I’m assuming it doesn’t go well, but the sharps seem to like the Jets in this spot. Regardless, it seems irrelevant to their Week 5 matchup vs. the Broncos.

These are undoubtedly two of the worst teams in football. The Broncos fell into a 28-7 hole vs. the Bears before Chicago wet the bed, while the Jets have a major problem at quarterback. Neither of these teams is winning anything this season.

However, the Jets’ problems feel a lot more fixable.

Dec 18, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws the ball as Detroit Lions linebacker James Houston (59) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

If Wilson plays well against the Chiefs — stranger things have happened — then he should be able to find success against the Broncos. If he doesn’t, Trevor Siemian can take the reigns for that matchup. I’m not expecting either player to give the Jets great quarterback play, but against Denver’s defense, it shouldn’t be a disaster.

Meanwhile, the Jets’ D remains a sleeping giant. They have not looked particularly impressive since the Week 1 performance vs. the Bills, but it’s hard to play your best when you’re on the field for essentially the whole game. They still have enough talent to be one of the better defensive units in the league.

If the Jets offense can do their part in Denver, expect the defense to hold up their end of the bargain. The Broncos opened as three-point favorites, and I think that’s a great bet to lock in now.

C.J. Stroud is the Real Deal

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle with their first taste of NFL action, but there are always outliers. Justin Herbert in 2020. Cam Newton in 2011. And now C.J. Stroud in 2023.

Stroud has taken to the NFL like a fish to water, and he’s doing his best to make us forget all about the stigma of Ohio State QBs. Through four games, he’s tallied more than 1,200 passing yards with six touchdowns, and he’s yet to throw a single pick. Those aren’t just good numbers for a rookie; they’re good numbers period.

Stroud was playing behind a makeshift offensive line against a ferocious Steelers pass-rush in Week 4. It should not have ended well. Instead, he led the team to a 24-point victory. Some guys are just special, and Stroud appears to be one of them.

In Week 5, Stroud and the Texans head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Not only are the Falcons fresh off a whooping in front of King Charles, they’re just not a particularly good football team. They’ve managed to beat the Panthers and Packers, but it’s clear those teams aren’t any good either. They’ve been thoroughly outclassed by the Jaguars and Lions, and when you can stop the run, Desmond Ridder has zero chance of beating you with his arm.

If Stroud is the guy he’s appeared to be in Weeks 1-4, there’s no reason he should be an underdog against Ridder. This number is down from 3.5 on the lookahead line to 2.5 now, but it still suggests that the Falcons are better than the Texans on a neutral field. That just feels wrong.

Who Has the Edge in Potential NFC Championship Preview?

This article is primarily about looking for betting value, but sometimes it’s important to just appreciate a good matchup. Outside of one stumble, the Cowboys and 49ers have looked like the clear top two teams in football. They have talent at virtually every position, and they’re capable of dominating games on both sides of the ball.

The Cowboys will travel to San Francisco in a potential NFC Championship preview in Week 5, so get your popcorn ready.

The 49ers were briefly available at -3.0, but the sharps immediately pushed that number to 3.5. It’s obviously extremely early, but 99% of the early spread dollars are on the home favorites.

If this line stays at 3.5, it’s probably going to be pretty tempting for the public to grab the points with the Cowboys. In their three games with a healthy offensive line, they’ve won by a combined score of 108-13.

Still, the 49ers feel like the better team, especially with the benefit of home field.

Neither opponent has really been tested to start the year, so regardless of who wins, we’ll learn a bit about both squads next Sunday night.