In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

A Couple Of Longshots: Gauging by the response to our recent dual-sport approach, I figured I might as well keep leaning into the variety—it is, as they say, the spice of life.

Just when I thought betting NFL was on a brief hiatus waiting for NFL Draft props to go live, I was dead wrong—a major player move sparked a 50:1 longshot detailed below (in the business, they call that a tease …)

Today I’ll be putting my NCAA dunce cap away for the day to cover my quickly deteriorating New York Yankees in the final installment of our 2025 MLB team preview series. As a lifetime Yankee fan, I can’t remember being down this bad entering Opening Day since the early 1990s.

Some notes!

📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here, along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute!

📋 ICYMI: We’ve gotten a head-start on the 2025 NFL season and our fantasy football rankers have laid the groundwork with their initial 2025 fantasy football rankings. We have a Fantasy Football Draft Kit, too.

🔮 Looking for more fantasy football news? Ian Hartitz broke down the biggest winners and biggest losers from NFL free agency.

THIS TE PROSPECT HAS A COMP WITH A NY TIE

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👀 The next Mark Andrews? The age of rookie tight ends continues.

📝 Five trades we could see happen on draft day. How many will come to fruition?

📊 ICYMI: Ranking the top 25 wide receivers in the 2025 draft class.

🏀 Betting odds and line movement for today’s women’s March Madness slate.

😂 Does the Jameis Winston signing alter the Giants’ draft-day plans? This makes sense!

🏈💵 (Very) Early Football Action—Won’t You Be My Nabers? 💵🏈

Nobody makes an entrance or dominates headlines quite like the NFL, even when MLB’s Opening Day is right around the corner. But like they say, don’t hate the player, hate the game.

When the New York Giants signed walking quote-maker Jameis Winston to a two-year deal, the fantasy football world immediately set ablaze—so, of course, I ran to the sportsbook. Everything they say about Winston between the lines is 100% accurate, even if he’s far from it at times when dropping back to pass. The saying “a thrill a minute” may fail to capture his true essence in terms of frequency—and anyone who’s ever had money on Jameis’ arm knows it. That said, the potential for ceiling outcomes simply cannot be understated. 

Winston took over shot-calling duties for the Brownies in Week 8 and instantly took all of us on a fantastic voyage. Among all 32 QBs with +100 pass attempts between Weeks 8-14, Winston filled the stat sheet (without a true alpha WR talent, mind you)

• 47.3 Dropbacks/Game—2nd (behind only Joe Burrow) 
• 315.3 Passing Yards/Game—2nd (behind only Joe Burrow) 
• 12 Passing TD—T-8th
• 9.1 Air Yards/Attempt—5th
• 48.6% Attempts To Sticks—5th
• 30 Deep Shots—6th

Suddenly Cleveland’s top pass-catching option Jerry Jeudy, who’s not even in the same stratosphere as last year’s sixth-overall pick Malik Nabers, looked like an MVP candidate. In that same time frame with Winston under center, Jeudy went bananas …

• 273 Routes—4th
• 55 Targets—13th
• 678 Receiving Yards—2nd (behind only Ja’Marr Chase)
• 2.48 Yards/Route—5th
• 17.8 Yards/Reception—1st
• 76.3% First Down/Reception Rate—1st
• 116.0 Air Yards/Game—4th
• 36.8% Explosive Catch Rate—9th

Now when Jameis drops back to throw, he’ll be staring down one of the NFL’s top WR options—and that’s without assuming any second-year growth from an already bona fide superstar. Nabers went for 109-1,204-7 on a team with some of the worst QB play in recent history. Saying the sky’s the limit feels like somewhat of an understatement when popping the hood on the former LSU Tiger’s rookie campaign. 

Of the 52 wideouts with 75-plus targets in 2024, Nabers stood out in spite of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle (woof, what a combo) ...

• 36.7 Routes/Game—9th
• 170 Targets—2nd (behind only Ja’Marr Chase)
• 7.3 Receptions/Game—2nd (behind only Ja’Marr Chase)
• 30.9% Target/Route—2nd (behind only Puka Nacua)
• 107.3 Air Yards/Game—2nd (behind only Calvin Ridley)

Somehow I made it this far without mentioning interceptions, synonymous with Jameis Winston’s style, but who cares? A pick-six (or two) every game just means Big Blue’s trailing with more reason to chuck it downfield to good ole No. 1. Since the NFL is the planet’s most liquid market, of course lines were up for Offensive Player Of The Year and (+5000), or a 1.96% implied probability at FanDuel was too juicy to say no to.

MORE NFL OPOY CANDIDATES

⚾🗽MLB Team Preview—New York Yankees🗽⚾

My initial take on the upcoming 2025 Yankee season feels like a list of onomatopoeias, reminiscent of an old Adam West Batman episode—SOCK! BLAP! VRONK! CLUNK!

As a spoiled Yankee fan, used to an essentially lifelong string of competitive seasons, this one felt like so many others destined to end in postseason disappointment. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining—making the playoffs eight times out of the last 10 tries is something Bomber fans have become accustomed to, despite its difficulty. That said, I wasn’t particularly high on this season’s roster build, and that was before the injury bug began to feast.

First, last year’s Rookie Of The Year Luis Gil suffered a high-grade lat strain, sending him to the shelf for a minimum few-month stay. Then, 2023’s Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, who hit the 60-day IL in 2024 with elbow discomfort, required Tommy John surgery after just six spring training innings. Now, former first-round pick Clarke Schmidt, who just topped +91 IP for the first time in his career after battling throwing arm injuries, is behind schedule with shoulder fatigue … but don’t worry he’s fine.

There’s a gray-pinstriped cloud hanging over the boogie-down right now, and personally I don’t think their team wins downgrade from 92.5 to 89.5 represents the degree of the slide in reality. 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Austin Wells, C: .227 / 53 / 54 / 17 / 4
2. Aaron Judge, RF: .281 / 105 / 117 / 48 / 6
3. Cody Bellinger, CF: .245 / 67 / 65 / 19 / 13
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: .243 / 72 / 73 / 23 / 7
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B: .244 / 87 / 71 / 26 / 35
6. Anthony Volpe, SS: .239 / 74 / 55 / 13 / 25
7. Jasson Dominguez, LF: .242 / 65 / 53 / 15 / 19
8. Ben Rice, DH: .229 / 25 / 25 / 9 / 3
9. Oswaldo Cabrera, 3B: .224 / 36 / 32 / 8 / 7

Hitting Overview: Polarizing stands out as the operative word when describing this Yankee offense. Supremely talented on a pound-for-pound basis up and down the order, there’s no lack of power in terms of isolated slugging or pulled flyballs. There will absolutely be days when opposing pitchers wake up in the middle of the night drenched in a cold sweat, terrified of giving up a six-run first inning. That said, outside of Aaron Judge, I worry this New York skyscraper is built on a shaky foundation.

Keeping the fact the OG Boss Steinbrenner is rolling in his grave after losing generational superstar Juan Soto to the crosstown Metropolitans, GM Brian Cashman has done a fine job retooling the offense in real-time. The recent additions of Jazz Chisholm, Paul Goldschmidt, and former MVP Cody Bellinger would boost any lineup—especially when considering Belly’s tailor-made swing/pull-heavy approach toward the short porch in right field.  Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells are both former first-rounders with a full-time opportunity to prove early detractors wrong, and like I said, the sky’s the limit on any given night.

That said, this roster’s depth has already been tested early and I seriously question its structural integrity. Both Giancarlo Stanton (elbow tendinitis) and DJ LeMahieu (calf strain) could miss significant time and all the Major League-ready youngsters are already residing in the Bronx. Plus, Goldschmidt’s already missing games with a balky back while Chisholm’s 27 years old with just a a single season on the ledger with +510 PA. 

The point being: NYY could be just one more injury away from the bottom falling out on a season to forget.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Carlos Rodón, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Max Fried, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
3. Will Warren, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐
4. Marcus Stroman, RHP: ⭐
5. Carlos Carrasco, RHP: ⭐

Pitching Overview: Headlined by last year’s Rookie Of The Year and one of the truly elite ace workhorses in the game today, this Yankee team is prepared to set the world on fire. (rubs eyes, waking up slowly) Oh wait … that was a dream.

Back to reality, you can stick the fork in this pinstriped turkey—they’re done. 

Fine, both southpaws atop the rotation present major challenges for opposing offenses on a per-inning basis, but how many of those innings will the Yanks get from them? Without digging too deep into their injury histories, I lost count at nine separate IL stints between the pair since just 2022. Remember, neither’s a spring chicken—both will be 32 this year.

Yes, I’m encouraged by Will Warren’s showing this spring (19.1 IP; 3.65 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 17.9% K-BB). However, he’s a nice No. 5 for a competitive squad, not the three—which means Yankee fans will be relying on the corpses of Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman to get them through six months in a brutal division. May I remind you that last season neither touched +92 mph on the gun or posted a WHIP below 1.40 … not great, Bob. Mark my words, it’s going to be a very long season uptown. 

IS JUDGE A LOCK FOR AL MVP WITH SHOHEI OUT OF THE WAY?

🧮 Betting Building Block—MLB Park Factors 🧮

Betting baseball is always going to be a little different from other pro sports in that the field of play isn’t uniform. Therefore, one of the more important elements in gauging MLB scoring has to be the hitting environment, especially when playing early on in cold-weather climates—which is why I always keep this Park Factor graphic handy.

It’s not the end-all-be-all of betting totals, but it sure will answer some questions you have about an individual total seeming too high or low on its face.

Per Baseball Savant, Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is the average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks.

For example, the 135-HR mark for 2018-2020 at Great American Ball Park does not mean the Reds hit 35% more home runs at their home park. It means for batters and pitchers who played both at GABP and elsewhere, 35% more home runs were observed at GABP.

2021-24 Leaderboard: Home Run Park Factor

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

ARE THE BRAVES A GOOD BET TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES?

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