Week 7 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Jaguars at Saints.

Thursday Night Football features a sneaky-good contest in NFL Week 7. We’ve had some subpar teams in the past few weeks—the Bears, Commanders, and Broncos have all graced our screens in the past two TNF contests—but the Jaguars and Saints are both legit playoff-caliber squads.

Jacksonville is off to a solid start, and they enter Week 7 on a three-game win streak. The Saints are coming off a tough loss in their last outing, but at 3-3, they’re still very live in the wide open NFC South.

Let’s dive into some of the best betting angles for this matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)
Total: 40.0
Moneylines: Jaguars +100/Saints -120

While Jacksonville is 4-2, I’m still not entirely sure how good this team is. They’ve been the beneficiaries of a very weird schedule, with two of their wins coming in London and their other two wins coming against the Colts.

Last week’s win over Indianapolis was pretty weird. On one hand, they became the first team to return to the States after playing overseas and be tied or trail at some point in the fourth quarter. That’s good!

On the other hand, it’s hard to say the Jaguars were dominant in that contest. They managed just 233 yards of total offense, and the Colts gifted the Jaguars with three turnovers in their first seven possessions. Two of those turnovers set the Jaguars up deep in Colts territory, directly handing them 10 points.

Ultimately, teams that put up tons of points with minimal supporting yardage tend to become overvalued. Teams with at least 30 points and less than 250 yards have gone just 137-159-9 ATS dating back to 2005.

Meanwhile, the Saints are in the opposite boat. They were undoubtedly the better team in their matchup with the Texans last week; they just didn’t win. The Saints racked up 133 more yards than the Texans, but they sabotaged themselves with two turnovers, two failed fourth down conversions, and 83 penalty yards.

Oct 15, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) runs the ball as Houston Texans cornerback Shaquill Griffin (0) defends during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints’ offense has been mediocre this season—they’re 20th in EPA/play—but Derek Carr has been limited in two games due to an injury. With Carr at full strength, this offense should improve moving forward. Alvin Kamara has returned recently to join an outstanding trio of receivers in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, giving Carr plenty of strong weapons to lean on.

Defensively, the Saints boast an elite unit. Their defense ranks fifth in EPA/play against, and they’re in the top six in both yards and points per game allowed.

Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Saints -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)

If it isn’t abundantly clear, I’m all over the Saints for this matchup. I’ve already locked in a play on Saints -1 in our free Bet Tracker.

For my money, I’m not sure there’s a more overvalued team than the Jaguars at the moment. They’re merely 17th in the Massey-Peabody power ratings, but they’re sixth in the NFL.com power rankings. That’s a wide discrepancy.

On the other side, the Saints are ninth in Massey-Peabody and 18th on NFL.com.

In short, this is the perfect storm of an undervalued squad squaring off with an overvalued one.

Add in the fact that the Saints have home field advantage, and this spread should be larger than just a point. I personally make the spread closer to Saints -3.5, so we’re getting the key number of three for free.

The sharps also like the Saints, with New Orleans receiving 77% of the dollars on 63% of the bets (via the Action Network). This number is up to 1.5 at some locations and could continue to rise as we approach kickoff, so if you’re going to tail, I’d lock it in quickly.

Thursday Night Football Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Travis Etienne Under 3.5 receptions (-175, BetMGM)

Bet To: Under 3.5 (-185)
Fantasy Life Projection: 2.82

Etienne has turned in back-to-back monster performances. He was the No. 1 PPR running back in Week 5, tallying 184 scrimmage yards with two touchdowns, and he was the No. 2 fantasy RB in Week 6. He’s capable of contributing in all facets of the game, and he’s played on a robust 79% of the team’s offensive snaps.

However, he’s not exactly a receiving back. Don’t get me wrong, he can catch the ball when called upon, but throws to the running back are not a huge part of the Jaguars’ offense. Etienne has just a 12% target share for the year, which is the fifth-highest mark on the squad.

Etienne does have three games with at least four receptions this season, but he’s been hyper-efficient with his chances. He has an 87.5% catch rate, up nearly 10% from his mark during his rookie season.

Ultimately, he’s going to need to continue to be hyper-efficient to hit the over on this number, and even that’s not a guarantee. We currently have Etienne projected for less than three catches, providing some value with the under.

You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Alvin Kamara Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

Bet To: Over 53.5 (-120)
Fantasy Life Projection: 53.71

Kamara returned to the Saints’ lineup in Week 4, and since then, he’s operated as the team’s clear top running back. He’s played on 73% of the snaps over that time frame, and he’s handled 64% of the rushing attempts. That includes 74% of the carries in Week 6, which set a new high-water mark for the year.

Kamara’s efficiency as a runner has cratered over the past few years, but with that kind of volume, he doesn’t need to be particularly efficient. He’s run the ball at least 19 times in back-to-back weeks, and he’s racked up at least 68 yards in both contests. He even managed to hit the over on 50.5 yards in his first game despite receiving just 11 totes.

The Jaguars are a tough matchup, ranking second in the league in EPA/rush against. However, as long as this game stays competitive, Kamara should be locked into around 15 carries. That should be enough to hit the over on this number.

Christian Kirk Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)

Bet To: Over 55.5 (-110)
Fantasy Life Projection: 59.29

What if I told you that Calvin Ridley was not the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver? That’s not entirely true, but it’s not entirely false either.

Oct 15, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) celebrate a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Ridley easily led the team in receiving volume in Week 1, and he’s been the team’s top receiver from an air yards perspective all season. But in terms of target volume? Kirk has been the man over the past five weeks.

From Weeks 2-6, Kirk has posted a 26% target share, while Ridley has lagged behind at 19%. Over that stretch, he’s averaged 9.2 targets, 6.4 receptions, and 72 yards per game.

Kirk’s receiving number is as high as 55.5 at other locations, so grabbing the over on 49.5 represents a solid value. Like Kamara, Kirk will have to navigate a tough matchup, but this number is simply too low based on what we’ve seen the past five weeks.

Jaguars @ Saints Touchdown Prop Bet

I’m not a touchdown prop guy. I know, I’m real fun at parties. My buddies are all sweating out degenerate stuff like a Noah Gray touchdown during the Super Bowl, while I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.

Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He’s highlighted Chris Olave as a worthy touchdown-scorer play for Jaguars-Saints:

"The Jaguars have been vaporized by opposing teams' best WRs this year:

Michael Pittman Week 1 (with a rookie QB – 8-97-1)
Tank Dell Week 3 (with a rookie QB – 5-145-1)
Stefon Diggs (8-121-1) and Gabe Davis (6-100-1) Week 5
Drake London (Week 4) scored against them
Skyy Moore (Week 2) also scored against them

The Jaguars' primary coverage against WR1s is bad and this week it may even be worse than usual as Tyson Campbell – the team's best corner – is hurting (hamstring - doubtful).

Chris Olave has only scored once this year but here’s betting that changes this week. He’s got a monster 41% air yards share going into Week 7 and is overdue for a long catch and score.

He’s definitely a player whose upside you want to chase in this spot and targeting him for an anytime TD at bigger odds lets us achieve that goal for betting."

Same-Game Parlay

Same Game Parlays are about telling a story. Will the Jaguars reel off their fourth straight win, or can the Saints bounce back with a win of their own? There are ways to tell yourself a story, correlate your parlay, and ultimately—profit. For more on Same Game Parlay strategy, read this comprehensive breakdown.

As usual, we’ll attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football. The goal is to build a parlay where if one leg hits, the odds of the other legs hitting increases.

I clearly like the Saints in this spot, so we’ll start with the Saints -1.0. I also don’t mind shooting for an alternate spread if you’re looking to increase the payout.

I’m also going to add in the under on 17.5 points for Jacksonville. If the Saints do win this game, I expect it to be on the back of their elite defense.

Finally, I’m going to add in at least 50 rushing yards for Kamara and at least 50 receiving yards for Kirk, bringing our total potential payout to +575:

If you want to make it extra spicy, you could always look to add an anytime touchdown scorer for the Saints. The odds for Kamara and Olave aren’t tempting enough for me personally, but adding a Taysom Hill anytime TD brings the potential payout to +2000.

You can tail this SGP and all of the bets in this article at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Click below to claim your First Bet Offer and start betting TODAY!

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

Thursday night football betting breakdown