Bold Predictions For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Trust Marcus Mariota?

You know, I’ve really been enjoying writing this bold predictions article each week.

Not only is it fun to think outside the box a little bit, but it also gives readers some viable deep league or under-the-radar FLEX plays, which will only be more important once bye weeks start.

Here are three bold calls ahead of Week 4’s action.

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions For Week 4

Marcus Mariota Finishes As A QB1

Mariota played well in last week’s upset over the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think he can do it again on Sunday, this time in London. The Commanders face off against a struggling Colts pass defense that has been torched by any competent offense so far this season. Indianapolis is coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (21.8), as well as the eighth-most rushing yards per game to signal callers (22.3).

We didn’t see a ton of rushing from Mariota last week, but during his time as Washington’s starter last year, Mariota averaged about 30 rushing yards per game, while posting a nine percent designed rush rate and seven percent scramble rate. Meanwhile, he should be able to find success as a passer here, too. The Colts are coughing up 8.8 yards per attempt (3rd-most), as well as 9.2 yards per attempt against 11 personnel, which the Commanders run at a top-10 rate in the league.

I would start Mariota over Justin Herbert and Drake Maye without any hesitation this week, and possibly until Jayden Daniels returns.

Josh Downs Finishes As a Top-Five WR

Let’s stay in London, shall we?

On the other side of this game, Downs should be viewed as a must-start fantasy wide receiver. He’s coming off a game where he saw a team-high 11 targets, sporting a 29% target share and seeing a target on 30% of his routes. Dating back to 2024, Downs has now been targeted on over 31% of his routes with both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce off the field, as he continues to command plenty of volume. If Downs sees even 7-9 targets in this game, he’ll smash.

If he sees double-digit looks again? Forget about it.

The Commanders have been a massive pass-funnel defense this season, as 77.3% of the yardage against them has come through the air, the second-highest rate in football. Of course, that isn’t to say the Colts are going to abandon Jonathan Taylor and the run game, but this has been a team to attack via the pass. Washington has already allowed five touchdowns to the slot, the most in football, while they continue to blitz at the league’s fourth-highest rate (42.2%). This sets up perfectly for Downs (and Tyler Warren), who can get open quickly and get open for Daniel Jones. Downs is averaging a solid 0.42 fantasy points per route run when blitzed since the start of last season, compared to 0.36 points per route when not facing the blitz.

Washington has been playing a lot of zone coverage on the back end. But when they do play man coverage, Downs will face the struggling Mike Sainristil, who has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (203) and most touchdowns (5) while in coverage so far this season.

Darren Waller Posts Top-Five TE Production vs Lions

I had you at Lions, didn’t I?

Detroit has been the fantasy gift that keeps giving, but especially for opposing tight ends. This team has had no answer for the position, allowing a touchdown to multiple tight ends in all three games this season. And if you look back at the games Detroit has been without both starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph since the end of last year, tight ends have found plenty of success.

Week 7: Cade Otton: 7-65-0
Week 15: Colby Parkinson: 5-75-2
Week 18: Colston Loveland: 10-91-1
Week 1 2026: Juwan Johnson & Noah Fant: 7-87-2
Week 2 2026: Dalton Kincaid & Dawson Knox: 9-100-2
Week 3 2026: Kenyon Sadiq & Jeremy Ruckert: 12-144-2

We do want to see Waller’s route participation improve, as it was a season-high last week, but still only 57%. Perhaps that finally gets closer to the 70% range this week, especially if the Panthers are without Jalen Coker, who is dealing with a quad injury. Carolina is likely going to have to throw quite a bit to keep up with Detroit’s offense, especially after losing corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. 6-8 targets from Waller against this defense should be enough for him to flirt with top-five tight end status.