Buyer Beware Before Drafting These Rookie WRs In Fantasy Football

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter:

There’s always a ton of hype for rookies following the NFL Draft, but around this time every year some harsh realities set in once the players actually get on the football field.

Of course, it is still June and there is plenty of time for things to change and reverse course, but we’d much prefer to hear positive news about the rookies we can’t stop clicking in drafts as opposed to bearish news.

This is especially the case for the rookies with relatively expensive price tags who don’t have Round 1 draft capital.

Don’t shoot the messenger, but here are two recent and vaguely concerning dispatches for rookie WRs …

📉 Kyle Williams (ADP: 122.7)—Chad Graff reported yesterday that the third-round rookie is playing behind Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, and Demario Douglas. While it is not unusual for rookies to start out behind vets, it is a concerning development considering his price in drafts (the most expensive of all the Round 3 rookies) and New England’s atrocious history of drafting and developing WRs.

Action item: Williams’ price is sure to drop over the coming weeks. Stick to targeting the QBs and TEs in this range and wait for Williams to settle closer to this next guy we are going to discuss …

Jack Bech (ADP: 142.6)—Similar to Williams, the second-round rookie WR is falling in drafts after ESPN reported that he’s playing behind fellow rookie Dont’e Thornton, who was selected 50 picks later than Bech. If this continues, it means Bech would likely need an injury to Jakobi Meyers to see significant playing time.

Action item: Bech’s price has already cooled off into a more palatable range, but he will likely continue to fall from here if news remains bearish. He could become a fun double-tap partner with Geno Smith (ADP 162.7) if their ADPs do inch closer.

2 WR PROJECTIONS GOING DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS

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New Regime Means New Sleepers In Jacksonville

Every year, we have an array of offensive coordinator and coaching changes around the NFL that throw a major wrench into projecting the offense’s production, requiring more guesswork than many would like to admit.

This season, we’ve got six key teams to keep an eye on that fall under this umbrella—the Patriots, Texans, Jaguars, Raiders, Seahawks, and Bears.

Chris Allen went team by team to break down what to expect from these offenses, starting with the Jags:

“We’ve got two instances of first-time HC Liam Coen steering an offense. In ’22, alongside Sean McVay, the Rams ranked 14th in early-down passing rate despite Matthew Stafford sustaining multiple injuries. Even better, LA was throwing the ball on 69.0% of its plays from inside the 10-yard line. Those same inclinations came with Coen to Florida.

Only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow had more attempts within the 10-yard line than Baker Mayfield last season. Plus, Coen involved all of his personnel with route-running abilities. Cade Otton’s 23.5% target share vaulted him into the TE1 discussion in the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa used both of its RBs as receivers at a top-4 rate. As a result, guys like Brenton Strange and Travis Etienne (after a poor ’24 outing) should be on our radar over the offseason.”

WHY DRAKE MAYE COULD HAVE A BIG 2025

Can You Trust The Colts Pass Catchers?

The Indy offense presents as one of the more ambiguous ones in the NFL in terms of fantasy production this season.

Will Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones take more snaps under center? And what does that mean for Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren?

We have a lot of questions, and no answers … yet … but we can speculate for the future, and that’s what Sam Wallace did with his latest rankings update for dynasty leagues.

“Until we know more, it's going to be tough to trust any pass catcher on the Colts. The upcoming QB battle between incumbent Anthony Richardson and newcomer Daniel Jones is going to be one for the ages (I hope).

Neither QB offers much confidence in the way of consistent downfield passing, and both, especially Richardson, have demonstrated a willingness to run the ball when needed.

I have presumed No. 1 option Michael Pittman as a low-end WR3 (WR32). Pittman has historical production on his side, as he's topped 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons, twice going over 1,000 yards.

A bit of a trendy name after topping 100 targets and 800 receiving yards as a sophomore in 2024, I have Josh Downs all the way down at WR52.

This is not a knock on the young player, but more of a reflection of how little confidence I have in this offense sustaining two fantasy-viable wideouts in both the short and medium term.”

A conservative approach with these two wideouts makes sense. But what does it mean for rookie do-it-all TE Tyler Warren? There’s a bit more reason for optimism there, plus, Sam broke down some QB rankings updates along the way …

IS WARREN THE COLTS’ EXCEPTION?