Fantasy Football Takeaways: Aaron Jones Leads Utilization Report For Week 11
Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 11.
Welcome to the Utilization Report, where I highlight my top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 11. With fantasy trade deadlines looming and championships hanging in the balance, we focus more than ever on the rest-of-season range of outcomes.
Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 10 and how we can apply it to Week 11 and beyond.
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Seasons: 2020 to 2025
Why should you care about the Utilization Score? Read this.
1. Aaron Jones has taken over the RB1 role in Minnesota.
We have a two-week trend suggesting that Jones has moved into the pole position in the Vikings' backfield.
In Week 9, Jones handled 77% of the snaps before an AC joint injury knocked him out of the game. The veteran back followed that up with a 72% snap share in Week 10. Jones posted an 84 Utilization Score with 15.9 fantasy points against the Ravens. He controlled 69% of the rushing attempts and notched a 63% route participation rate and 15% target share.
The Vikings fell behind in Week 10 against the Ravens, so some of Jones' role improvement could be due to the game script. However, he has bogarted 96% of the snaps in the first quarter and 76% in the first half of the last two games, which points towards a shift in approach by Minnesota's coaching staff.
Last season, Jones garnered a 78 Utilization Score under Kevin O'Connell, which appears in range again for the rest of the 2025 campaign. If we blend that score with what we have seen over the last two games, an 80 Utilization Score feels about right.
Based on that score, Jones' 42 historical comparisons averaged 15.5 fantasy points, with the bulk of them finishing between RB7 and RB18.
RB1 to RB6 performers: 17%
RB7 to RB12 performers: 29%
RB13 to RB18 performers: 33%
RB19 to RB24 performers: 17%
RB25 to RB30 performers: 5%
The Vikings' schedule over the next few games is average, but it is favorable from Week 14 to 16. Below is a summary of the fantasy boost their opponents have provided to RB units.
Week 11: Bears (0.7)
Week 12: Packers (-6.5)
Week 13: Seahawks (-1.9)
Week 14: Commanders (2.4)
Week 15: Cowboys (5.5)
Week 16: Giants (6.9)
Week 17: Lions (-3.6)
Based on the open trade database at FantasyCalc, Jones can be attained for a reasonable price if you are hurting at RB. Players that were moved for Jones on Monday (11/10):
Jones UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 territory and offers borderline RB1 upside.
2. TreVeyon Henderson flashed massive upside as the RB1.
Let's be clear about one thing: we have absolutely no clue how Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels will split up this backfield when it's healthy.
Having said that, we can also acknowledge the upside Henderson offers, should his massive Week 10 showing convince the braintrust to give this man more touches. The rookie finished the day with 147 rushing yards, scoring TDs of 55 and 69 yards. The game-changing ability that caused the Patriots to draft him in Round 2 of the NFL Draft was on full display.
Henderson has led the backfield over the last two games with Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) out and Terrell Jennings (knee) exiting the Week 10 contest early. Over those two games, he has averaged 20.4 points with an 83 Utilization Score.
Before the injury purge, Henderson had a 32% snap share and 40 Utilization Score with 6.6 fantasy points per game. We have a massive chasm between his performances over the last two weeks and what we saw in a fully healthy Patriots backfield.
That means we should consider a few different scenarios for Henderson to get a proper understanding of his range of outcomes.
Scenario 1: Henderson is the new RB1 in New England.
Henderson has a couple of paths to this scenario. First, the coaching staff could decide it's time to hand over the reins. That isn't a crazy take given how much we have seen Round 2 RBs improve their value in the second half of seasons. Since 2015, that cohort has improved its fantasy points per game by 37% from Week 9 through the end of the season.
The second path: Stevenson and his teammates continue to miss time or suffer another injury.
For this scenario, we can use Henderson's Utilization Score of 83 over the last two games. You could argue this isn't bullish enough because there is room for improvement if he completely takes over the backfield. However, it represents a sober-minded approach that leaves some room for another back to get some work.
His 48 historical comps averaged a healthy 16.2 points with 61% collecting top-12 seasons.
RB1 to RB6 performers: 21%
RB7 to RB12 performers: 40%
RB13 to RB18 performers: 31%
RB19 to RB24 performers: 8%
This scenario paints Henderson as a low-end RB1 with high-end RB1 upside. If you believe in this scenario and historical Round 2 rookie RB trends, you should be a Henderson buyer.
Scenario 2: Henderson earned a larger role but still splits time.
In this scenario, we see a more even split, similar to the Lions and Seahawks. Historically, backs in those roles have offered a wide range of outcomes. Jahmyr Gibbs is an excellent example of what an explosive playmaker looks like in a high-end offense.
Gibbs has parlayed a 52% rush share and 14% target share into 20.4 points per game. Kenneth Walker is the cautionary tale of how a good player in a solid offense can still go wrong when splitting time. Walker has a 48% rush share and 5% target share since Week 3, averaging only 9.6 points.
A positive for Henderson is his 9% target share, which places him between Gibbs and Walker. The Patriots' offense ranks 14th in the percentage of drives that reach the red zone (31%), which is close to the Seahawks' 30% and behind the Lions' 38%. The New England offensive line ranks 25th in PFF Run Block grade, well behind the Lions (second) and Seahawks (15th).
As you can see, this scenario isn't as easy to forecast. We don't have a sample of games in which Henderson was in a true 50-50 split with Stevenson, which leaves us without a Utilization Score to guide us. In Henderson's two highest snap-share games with Stevenson (48% in Weeks 3 and 5), he scored 7.7 and 4.7 points.
The schedule is a significant silver lining that could help Henderson provide more fantasy booms. He has one of the best schedules remaining. Below is the fantasy boost provided to RB units based on the Patriots' remaining opponents.
In this scenario, Henderson grades out as a borderline RB2 with immense spike game potential if he can keep the big plays rolling. This scenario makes Henderson a hold if you have him on your roster unless someone is willing to pay an RB1 price. You probably won't be able to buy him at an RB3 price after this performance.
Scenario 3: Henderson returns to his old role when Stevenson is healthy.
We don't need to spend much time on this one, because we have already seen it, and it was downright terrible. Over the first eight games, Henderson had a 40 Utilization Score, averaging 6.6 points. His historical comps averaged 7.2 with only 13% securing a top-24 finish.
In this scenario, Henderson could still hit some spikes thanks to the schedule, but he would be a low-end boom-bust RB3. If you believe that Vrabel & Co. will show Stevenson veteran deference, this scenario would mean selling high and living with the outlier chance that Henderson booms in a less-than-ideal role.
Final takeaway: The middle ground on all of this is a mid-range RB2 outlook for Henderson the rest of the way.
3. RJ Harvey could be in for a big Utilization bump.
J.K. Dobbins suffered a foot injury in Week 10 on a hip-drop tackle and is seeking a second opinion. Should the veteran miss time, Harvey would be the favorite to see the most significant increase in workload. Similar to Henderson, Harvey is a Round 2 NFL Draft pick, so the Broncos would be incentivized to see their investment pay off.
While we haven't seen Harvey in a lead role, he has already flashed the ability to show up in the fantasy box score.
Another way of looking at it is this: In games where Harvey's rush attempts plus targets totaled seven or higher, he averaged a whopping 17.1 points.
We would likely see Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin take some of the snaps, which could keep Harvey from a complete takeover. However, he would be favored to end up with a 50% snap share and 12-15 opportunities per game, conservatively. That scenario would make him a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside. Should he surge to 65% snap territory, the rookie would be an RB1 with league-winning upside.
The Broncos' schedule isn't easy based on the RB fantasy boost allowed by opponents:
Week 11: Chiefs (-3.2)
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: Commanders (1.8)
Week 14: Raiders (-1.7)
Week 15: Packers (-6.5)
Week 16: Jaguars (-2.2)
Week 17: Chiefs (-3.2)
While the schedule isn't ideal, the Broncos offer an excellent scheme for RBs thanks to their Utilization in the passing game. Of running backs with at least 100 routes, Harvey ranks fifth in targets per route run (TPRR) at 23%. He ranks 11th in yards per route run (YPRR) at 1.42. In PPR formats, that will help him offset some of the schedule concerns.
Harvey UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status in games without Dobbins.
4. Marvin Harrison Jr. has life with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
In four games as the starter for the Cardinals this season, Brissett has averaged 280 yards and two touchdowns through the air. That is a massive upgrade over Kyler Murray, who averaged 192 and 1.2, respectively, over his five starts.
Harrison has played three full games with Brissett, averaging 14.9 points with an 80 Utilization Score.
While a matchup against the Cowboys in Week 9 (22.6 points) is helping boost Harrison's fantasy output, he has a whopping 27% target share (9.3 per game) with Brissett. The 2024 No. 4 overall pick of the NFL Draft has averaged 133 air yards over that span. It's a small sample, but those are WR1-worthy numbers based on data back to 2011.
Harrison's historical Utilization Score comps have averaged 16.0 points with 53% reaching top-12 status.
WR1 to WR6: 9%
WR7 to WR12: 44%
WR13 to WR18: 23%
WR19 to WR24: 18%
WR25 to WR30: 5%
WR31 to WR36: 2%
That is a very appealing range of outcomes. It's a small sample, so I lean toward the WR2 territory, but the upside is clearly there for Harrison.
Of course, we don't know what the Cardinals will do in three weeks when Murray is eligible to return from IR. However, the vibes don't seem positive with the two probably destined for a split after this year. Additionally, Brissett is the better fit for Drew Petzing's offense, which centers around marrying the pass and run game concepts to keep defenses off balance.
Under center snaps: Brissett (39%), Murray (21%)
Play action dropbacks: Brissett (33%), Murray (23%)
Yards per attempt: Brissett (7.2), Murray (6.0)
Play action yards per attempt: Brissett (7.9), Murray (6.9)
My money is on Brissett finishing the year as the starter, given the information we have, but admittedly, it is just a guess. Interestingly, the offense has reached the red zone on 36% of drives, ranking sixth in the NFL. They have scored on only 23% of drives, suggesting room for improvement in the scoring department.
Arizona's schedule is slightly above average over the next four games, but they face two stiff defenses in the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16.
Week 11: 49ers (2.2)
Week 12: Jaguars (0)
Week 13: Buccaneers (1.5)
Week 14: Rams (1.4)
Week 15: Texans (-7.5)
Week 16: Falcons (-4.6)
Week 17: Bengals (1.7)
Harrison UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory and offers WR1 upside if he can keep his small-sample magic with Brissett going.
5. D'Andre Swift returned to the lineup and the RB1 duties, but is a sell-high candidate.
Ahead of Week 10 action, we heard reports that the Bears would deploy a hot-hand approach at the RB position. It's hard to know how accurate those reports were, but we do know the backfield split settled back into the range we saw in the three games before Swift missed Week 9.
Kyle Monangai has tightened the splits since the Bears' Week 5 bye, but Swift has remained the RB1. Over that span, Swift has averaged 19.1 points with a 76 Utilization Score. In Week 10, the veteran back supervised 61% of the snaps, 62% of the attempts, scoring 14.8 points with an 85 Utilization Score.
Based on Swift's Utilization Score since the bye (76), his historical comparisons have averaged 14.7 points, suggesting the potential for negative regression. Since 2020, his 34 Utilization Score comparisons reached top-12 status 30% of the time.
RB1 to RB6 performers: 6%
RB7 to RB12 performers: 24%
RB13 to RB18 performers: 32%
RB19 to RB24 performers: 32%
RB25 to RB30 performers: 5%
The Bears' schedule down the stretch gets tougher, including a brutal three-game stretch from Week 14 to Week 16, based on the fantasy boost their opponents have sanctioned.
Week 11: Vikings (-1.1)
Week 12: Steelers (-3.0)
Week 13: Eagles (-1.7)
Week 14: Packers (-6.5)
Week 15: Browns (-5.6)
Week 16: Packers (-6.5)
Week 17: 49ers (2.9)
Swift remains the lead back in Chicago, but not by a large margin, and the upcoming schedule is of the outlier-bad variety. Swift is a mid-range RB2 that could perform more like a low-end RB2 the rest of the way, making him a sell-high candidate.
Accounts for snaps and routes in addition to attempts and targets.
Accounts for catchable targets and catchable air yards.
The underlying role accounts for ~75% of a player's Utilization Score.
Uses fantasy points per game (PPG) as a proxy for talent (i.e., has the player done something with their opportunities). Fantasy PPG is worth ~25% of a player's Utilization Score.
Underperformers are candidates for positive regression, making them potential buy-low targets. Overperformers are candidates for negative regression, making them sell-high options.
Chris Olave | WR | Saints (Underperformer)
We still don't have a considerable sample with Tyler Shough under center, but the rookie has shown me enough to get back on board with Olave. Shough is pushing the ball down the field with a 9.1 aDOT. The rookie delivered 282 yards with 10.4 yards per attempt in Week 10 against the Panthers.
With Rashid Shaheed gone, Olave has less competition for targets than ever. He operated from the slot on 53% of plays in Week 10. A high-end target earner working vertically downfield from the slot can be a deadly combination, y'all.
Olave ranks No. 8 in WR Utilization Score this season with an 81 while averaging 14.9 points. His historical comps have averaged 16.4 points, with a mouth-watering 65% attaining top-12 status.
WR1 to WR6: 15%
WR7 to WR12: 50%
WR13 to WR18: 19%
WR19 to WR24: 13%
WR25 to WR30: 2%
WR31 to WR36: 1%
On the surface, Olave's schedule isn't great. However, he only has one tough matchup remaining, and matchups against the Dolphins, Jets, and Titans are due to teams building leads against them. They have trailed by nine-plus points 26% (11th), 44% (fourth), and 48% (first), respectively. Against the Saints, we should expect tighter spreads from oddsmakers.
The next two weeks (bye and Falcons) aren't ideal, but the rest of the schedule is favorable.
Olave is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside, and having the foresight to deal for him during his bye week could result in a lower price tag.
Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders (Underperformer)
Jeanty has taken over an every-down workload over the last month. Over the last two games, his Utilization has reached elite territory with 90% and 88% snap shares.
The first-round NFL Draft pick has secured a 91 Utilization Score or higher in three of his last four contests. In Week 7, the Raiders rested their starters late in the game. In the three games with a full complement of snaps, he has averaged 17.3 fantasy points.
The bull case for Jeanty is his 92 Utilization Score over the last two games. The historical comps for that score have averaged 19.1 points, with an impressive 72% securing top-six seasons.
RB1 to RB6: 72%
RB7 to RB12: 20%
RB13 to RB18: 8%
Jeanty's schedule is a mixed bag over the next seven games, with great matchups in Weeks 11 and 17, and a tough matchup against the Browns in Week 12, according to DvP fantasy boost data. However, many will conflate the superior pass defenses of the Chargers and Broncos with their run units, which are average matchups, not bad ones.
Week 11: Cowboys (5.5)
Week 12: Browns (-5.6)
Week 13: Chargers (-0.8)
Week 14: Broncos (0.1)
Week 15: Eagles (-1.7)
Week 16: Texans (-2.6)
Week 17: Giants (6.9)
Remember: volume is a far better predictor of future fantasy performance than schedule, and this lineup of games is below average overall, not outlier bad (which is what we care about more).
Jeanty is a low-end RB1 with high-end RB1 upside, making him a BUY.
With Warren, I have to caveat him as a *potential underperformer* because technically, his 14.3 fantasy points per game are in line with his Utilization Score (71) comparisons. However, I believe his best games are still ahead.
Why do I feel that way? It's pretty simple: his fantasy points are the primary component in his score that is holding him down. We use fantasy points as a proxy for talent, offensive environment, and other factors that pure Utilization doesn't account for.
But with Warren, we have a player who has historically performed well and has hogged a massive role over the last four games. Over that span, he has an 80% rush share and an 8% target share.
In the targets department, there is untapped potential. Warren ranks third in YPRR for RBs with at least 100 routes this season at 2.79. He trails only Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson. His 20% TPRR ranks 12th at the RB position, and the Steelers' passing attack doesn't have any target hogs.
I am speculating on Warren, based on my experience working with this data. He is currently the RB19 in fantasy points per game for the season at 13.7, but he has an excellent chance to improve that in the coming weeks with a smash matchup against the Bengals, followed by four manageable opponents.
Week 11: Bengals (9.9 fantasy boost)
Week 12: Bears (0.7)
Week 13: Bills (1.7)
Week 14: Ravens (2.6)
Week 15: Dolphins (1.8)
Week 16: Lions (-3.6)
Week 17: Browns (-5.6)
Things won't be easy in the final two games of the season, with hard outs against the Lions and Browns. Still, he could help us reach the playoffs over the next few weeks. His historical comparisons have reached top-12 territory 25% of the time.
RB1 to RB6: 7%
RB7 to RB12: 18%
RB13 to RB18: 20%
RB19 to RB24: 36%
RB25 to RB30: 18%
RB31 to RB36: 1%
Warren is a mid-range RB2 with sneaky RB1 upside over the next month based on his Utilization Score comps and schedule. He is a buy-low candidate.
Quinshon Judkins | RB | Browns (Overperformer, But Good Schedule Coming)
Similar to Warren, I am taking some liberties with Judkins. The bottom line is that the man has a favorable schedule, aside from a tough matchup in Week 17.
Week 11: Ravens (2.6 fantasy boost)
Week 12: Raiders (-1.7)
Week 13: 49ers (2.9)
Week 14: Titans (3.8)
Week 15: Bears (0.7)
Week 16: Bills (1.7)
Week 17: Steelers (-3.0)
There is potential for bad game scripts against some of these teams, given the Browns' offensive woes. However, he is Cleveland's undisputed mail carrier, with an 81% rush share since taking over the starting role in Week 3. Over that span, he has averaged 18.6 attempts and two targets. Despite their offensive struggles, he has been held under 19 opportunities in only one of six healthy games.
Excluding his injury game, Judkins has averaged 15.4 fantasy points. His Utilization Score (68) comparisons come in under that at 13.9, which would make him a player to consider selling if not for the favorable schedule. He is the RB18 since taking over the starting role, but we could see him perform closer to the high-end range of his outcomes.
RB1 to RB6: 5%
RB7 to RB12: 11%
RB13 to RB18: 14%
RB19 to RB24: 32%
RB25 to RB30: 28%
RB31 to RB36: 11%
Judkins is a mid-range RB2, but offers borderline RB1 upside given his upcoming matchups.
7. Utilization Score Trends
Trending Up
Woody Marks | RB | Texans: Marks' Utilization has been all over the map since Week 4. Over that span, he has reached a 58% snap share in three of six games. In Week 10, he monopolized the Houston backfield with a season-high 78% snap share on his way to 16.1 points. The Texans were in comeback mode for most of the game, which was likely a contributing factor, but we can't know for sure given historical trends around rookie RBs that point to growing roles over the second half of the season. His Utilization Score has climbed six points over the last four games, and he has a score of 66 since Week 4. His historical comparisons have averaged 12.7 points with 54% performing as top-24 options. Marks is a high-end RB3.
Drake London | WR | Falcons: London has improved his Utilization Score by nine points over the last four contests, pushing his season-long score to 89. Over that span, he has averaged 25.8 points with a 29% target share and 122 air yards per contest. London is ascending to superstar status. His historical comparisons have averaged 19 points with 70% notching top-six seasons—he is a mid-range WR1.
George Kittle | TE | 49ers: Kittle finally busted loose with 23.4 fantasy points and a 95 Utilization Score in Week 10. He has improved his Utilization Score by 26 points over the last four contests, primarily based on his last performance. Kittle is a high-end TE1.
Trending Down
Jordan Mason | RB | Vikings: With Jones ascending to RB1 status in Minnesota, Mason's Utilization Score has tumbled by nine points over the last four games. In Week 10, he saw a season-low 23% snap share. Mason has scored 8.5, 5.8, 4.7, and 4.1 points in four contests with Jones this season. His average Utilization Score over those games is 44. Based on that sample, Mason's historical comps have averaged 8.0 fantasy points, with 67% finishing outside of the top 36. Mason is an RB4.
Keenan Allen | WR | Chargers: Allen was highlighted as a sell-high option in last week's Utilization Report due to the Chargers' use of more heavy personnel and the growing role of Tre Harris. Those issues persisted in Week 10 with Allen recording season lows in targets (13%), Utilization Score (30), and fantasy points (3.9). His route participation rate over the last three weeks is a lowly 55%. His Utilization Score is a 41 over that span. We may see a slight uptick from Allen if Oronde Gadsden misses any time with a bruised quadriceps. However, his rest-of-season outlook has taken a hit. Allen is a WR5 until further notice.
8. Waiver Wire Roundup
RB
Tyler Allgeier | Falcons: Allgeier is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy, and his role inside the ten-yard line makes him a viable flex play in deeper leagues. He has accounted for 75% of the team's attempts inside the ten and scored four touchdowns. Allgeier is a mid-range RB4 with borderline RB1 contingent upside. He is available in 67% of leagues.
Tyjae Spears | Titans: Spears has moved into a 50-50 time share with Tony Pollard over the last four games. The third-year back has averaged 10.6 points with a 59 Utilization Score over that span. His historical comparisons have averaged 11.1 points with 82% reaching top-36 territory. While the Titans' offense isn't very good, Spears is their preferred option on passing downs, which plays into his hands in trailing scripts. He is a borderline RB3 and is available in 64% of leagues.
Brian Robinson Jr. | 49ers: Robinson saw his most considerable workload of the season in Week 10, handling 38% of the rushing attempts, including the lone attempt inside the five-yard line. He is a high-end handcuff who could develop flex-worthy upside if the team chooses to lighten CMC's role. Robinson is available in 76% of leagues.
Blake Corum | Rams: Corum continues to work behind Kyren Williams, but the team is willing to let him close out games. He handled 67% of the Rams' rushing attempts in the second half of the Week 10 victory over the 49ers. Corum is a high-end handcuff with RB1 upside should Williams miss any time. He is available in 89% of leagues.
WR
Tez Johnson | Buccaneers: We still don't have a timeline for Chris Godwin's return, and Mike Evans (collarbone) won't be available until Week 14 at the earliest. In four games as a starter, Johnson has averaged 14.2 points with a 60 Utilization Score. He hasn't been a high-end target earner (15%), but the rookie has flashed play-making ability. Johnson's historical comparisons have averaged 11.3 points, with 39% securing a top-36 campaign. Johnson is a boom-bust WR4 and is available in 68% of leagues.
Parker Washington | Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr. is battling an ankle injury that kept him out of Week 10, and Travis Hunter is on IR until at least Week 13. That has opened up playing time and targets, which Washington has taken advantage of. Over the last two games, he has a 76 Utilization Score with 14.5 points per game. He has a gaudy 25% target share, averaging 66.5 air yards over that span. However, things could get more crowded this week. Jakobi Meyers could eat into Washington's role once acclimated, and the Jaguars have opened Brenton Strange's 21-day practice window. Washington is a low-end WR3 and is available in 59% of leagues.
Chimere Dike | Titans: Dike has played a full-time role over the last two games with a 91% route participation rate and a 20% target share. We don't know what the pecking order will look like when Calvin Ridley (hamstring) returns, but the Titans could look to continue their rookies as they set their sights on the 2026 season. Dike is a WR5 who could emerge as a WR3 option down the stretch. He is available in 86% of leagues.
Jayden Higgins | Texans:Xavier Hutchinson appears to be losing his grip on the WR2 role in Houston. His route participation has dropped over the last three games (79%, 66%, 55%). Higgins notched his highest route participation of the season (53%) without the assistance of a teammate injury in Week 10 and scored 15.2 points. Higgins isn't a starter yet, but could emerge as the Texans' WR2 in the coming weeks. He is available in 86% of leagues.
TE
Cade Otton | Buccaneers: Otton has become a staple of the Bucs' offense over the last four games with a 24% target share. Over that span, he has averaged 12.2 points with a 78 Utilization Score. We saw a similar stretch from Otton last season when injuries riddled Tampa Bay. Otton is a low-end TE1 with mid-range TE1 upside until the WRs get healthy. He is available in 58% of leagues.
Dalton Schultz | Texans: Schultz has a 74 Utilization Score with 10.5 points per game this year. Over the last four games, he has an 81 score with 13.8 points per game, operating as the No. 2 target behind Nico Collins. Schultz is a low-end TE1 and is available in 76% of leagues.
Brenton Strange | Jaguars: Strange's 21-day practice window opened this week, signaling he is near returning. With the Jaguars banged up at WR, he could emerge as a top-three option in the offense. Over the first four weeks of the season, he averaged 9.3 points with a 66 Utilization Score and a 17% target share. Strange is a high-end TE2 option that could become a low-end TE1 option. He is available in 89% of leagues.
Utilization Bytes From Week 10
Team Trends
We now have five weeks of data for most teams, making it a good time to examine team-level trends that affect fantasy production. You can find the data across all 32 NFL teams in the Team Styles tab of the Utilization Report tools.
Redzone Drive Rate vs. Touchdowns Drive Rate: Percentage of drives that reach the red zone versus how often the team is scoring a touchdown per drive. Large deltas indicate room for positive or negative regression.
Packers: 14% (43% vs. 29%)
Cardinals: 13% (36% vs. 23%)
Chiefs: 13% (46% vs. 33%)
Saints: 12% (26% vs. 14%)
Jaguars: 11% (32% vs. 21%)
Panthers: 11% (30% vs. 19%) ——
Dolphins: 0% (24% vs. 24%)
Steelers: -1% (22% vs. 23%)
Commanders: -1% (26% vs. 27%)
Eagles: -4% (26% vs. 30%)
Dropback Over Expected (DBOE): How often teams pass the ball compared to their peers when considering the score differential:
Chiefs: 6%
Cardinals: 4% (Pre MNF)
Bengals: 4%
Chargers: 4% ——
Lions: -5%
Commanders: -6%
Seahawks: -6%
Ravens: -7%
Jets: -7%
Panthers: -8%
Notable four-week trends:
Colts: 6%
Commanders: -11% (injuries and losing)
Panthers: -10%
Ravens: -10%
Jets: -9% (injuries and losing)
49ers: -7%
Dolphins: -7%
Other:
Lions: 7% DBOE with Dan Campbell calling plays
Neutral Playclock: Teams that are leaving more or less time on the playclock when the score is within three points (neutral situations). The NFL average is 8.3 seconds.
Cowboys: 11.2
Rams: 10.1
Jets: 9.8
Saints: 9.7
Broncos: 9.7 ——
Panthers: 7.0
Buccaneers: 7.0
Eagles: 6.6
Steelers: 6.4
Cardinals: 6.2
Play action pass rate: Teams that are utilizing play action the most per dropback, which adds value to WRs and TEs on a per-route basis in fantasy:
Rams: 35%
Colts: 33%
Bears: 33%
Lions: 30%
Seahawks: 29%
Cardinals: 29% ——
49ers: 21%
Steelers: 21%
Browns: 21%
Jets: 20%
Eagles: 19%
Bengals: 18%
Falcons: 17%
Other trends:
The Ravens used only three WRs in Weeks 9 and 10, opting for more multi-tight end and fullback Utilization.
Running Back
Sean Tucker | Buccaneers: We still don't have a return timeline on Bucky Irving and Tucker has handled a larger role over the last two games, handling 41% and 43% of the attempts. The game script got out of hand, keeping Rachaad White clearly in the lead with a 71% snap share. However, in closer games, we could see Tucker emerge as the lead option on the ground. Tucker is a short-term RB5 stash option until Irving returns.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Giants: Tracy regained the RB1 role in Week 10 after playing behind Devin Singletary in Week 9. With Brian Daboll out as the head coach, it's hard to know how the backfield will shake out, but Tracy hogged 66% of the snaps and handled most of the passing down duties in the most recent data point. Tracy has a 55 Utilization Score with 7.4 points per game in two games without Cam Skattebo. Tracy is a mid-range RB3 who could still find his way back into RB2 territory if he is the lead option again in Week 11.
Wide Receiver
Alec Pierce | Colts: Pierce improved his Utilization Score by another five points in Week 10, notching a score of 80 with 18.4 fantasy points. He is on pace for a career high in target share (20%) and air yards per game (128). For the season, Pierce now has a Utilization Score of 65. His historical comps have averaged 12.6 points per game with 64% finding top-36 success. Pierce is a low-end WR3.
DeVaughn Vele | Saints: With Shaheed traded to the Seahawks, Vele stepped into the WR2 role with a 100% route participation rate. He didn't do much with his playing time, only notching 2.5 fantasy points, but Vele could emerge as a WR4 option. He is available in most leagues.
Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars: Meyers notched a 50% route participation rate and 19% TPRR in his first game in Jacksonville. With the WR corps banged up, he could emerge as a full-time option as soon as Week 11. He is a WR4 option.
Jameson Williams | Lions: With Dan Campbell at the controls, Williams secured his best game of the season with 23.9 fantasy points and a Utilization Score of 85. Williams saw a 23% target share and wasn't just a deep threat with a 10.3 aDOT. Williams has notched three top-20 finishes in the last four games. Over that span, he has averaged 14.8 points with a 62 Utilization Score. Williams is a boom-bust WR3 who could climb the ranks with Campbell now calling plays.
Jauan Jennings | 49ers: Jennings has improved his Utilization Score by nine points over the last four games. Over that span, he has a 69 score with 11.7 points per game. His historical comps have averaged 13.6 points per game, with 65% finishing as the WR30 or better. Jennings is a mid-range WR3, but his outlook could take a hit when Ricky Pearsall returns.
Justin Jefferson | Vikings: Jefferson has averaged 12.7 points with a 77 Utilization Score in four games with J.J. McCarthy as the starter. Only 31% of Jefferson's historical Utilization Score comps have notched a top-12 season. He is still getting his opportunities with a 36% target share (8.5 per game) and 111 air yards per game with McCarthy. However, the two haven't been playing from the same sheet of music, with only 65% of his targets deemed as catchable by PFF. On a positive note, the Vikings have a favorable schedule ahead, leaving the door open for a rebound, and they have a 7% DBOE over the last two games. Jefferson is trending downward, but his elite talent keeps him in the borderline WR1 range.
Ladd McConkey | Chargers: McConkey has a 79 Utilization Score over the last four games, averaging 16.7 points per game. With Keenan Allen playing less, there are more targets up for grabs in the areas of the field where McConkey excels. McConkey UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and offers WR1 upside.
Troy Franklin | Broncos: Franklin has boosted his Utilization Score by eight points over the last four games. Part of that has come from Marvin Mims Jr.'s absence over the last two games, allowing Franklin to secure 90% and 87% route participation rates. Still, the second-year WR now leads the team with a 22% target share for the season. Franklin has a 66 Utilization Score for the season. His historical comparisons have averaged 12.8 points, with 24% finishing between WR13 and WR24 and 48% between WR25 and WR36. Franklin is a low-end WR3.
Tight End
Colston Loveland | Bears: Loveland's route participation fell back to earth at 56% with Cole Kmet back in the lineup in Week 10. The rookie first-rounder is still worth holding onto in deeper leagues, but the breakout notice is on hold. Loveland is a mid-range TE2.
Trey McBride | Cardinals: McBride has averaged 23.7 points per game with a SIZZLING 100 Utilization Score with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The targets were there with Murray, but the air yards have skyrocketed with Brissett (90.3 per game vs. 50.8). The Cardinals are using more play-action and operating more from under center with Brissett (see Marvin Harrison Jr. above), putting linebackers in a precarious situation against the fourth-year TE. McBride is playing more like a high-end WR1 with Brissett at the helm.
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1. Aaron Jones has taken over the RB1 role in Minnesota.
2. TreVeyon Henderson flashed massive upside as the RB1.
3. RJ Harvey could be in for a big Utilization bump.
4. Marvin Harrison Jr. has life with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
5. D'Andre Swift returned to the lineup and the RB1 duties, but is a sell-high candidate.
Chris Olave | WR | Saints (Underperformer)
Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders (Underperformer)
Jaylen Warren | RB | Steelers (Potential Underperformer)
Quinshon Judkins | RB | Browns (Overperformer, But Good Schedule Coming)
