Geno Smith Fantasy Football Outlook After Trade To New York Jets: Return Could Elevate Garrett Wilson
Ian Hartitz breaks down the fantasy football outlook after the Geno Smith trade to the New York Jets, and how it could elevate Garrett Wilson.
One of the last big-name QBs on the open market has a new home: Geno Smith has been traded to the New York Jets in a late-round pick swap. The Raiders will be paying the bulk of Smith's salary, meaning the Jets will get the veteran QB for a little over the league minimum. Smith is fully expected to work as the starter—Connor Hughes reports Carson Wentz is "squarely in the mix" to be the backup.
Geno Smith Trade To New York Jets, Fantasy Football Outlook
Of course, Smith was originally drafted by the Jets with the 39th overall pick of the 2013 NFL Draft. That tenure didn't exactly work out, leading to Geno moving on and spending the 2010s as a backup with the Giants, Chargers and Seahawks—before suddenly he got a chance to start after Russell Wilson was traded to the Broncos.
Then something funny happened: Smith played pretty damn well! Yes, we're now living in the year 2026 and are very aware that Geno's one-year tenure with the Raiders went awful. Also yes, that doesn't erase the reality that the 35-year-old veteran played some good football during his three years as the Seahawks' starter.
Of course, what happened in 2025 should be weighted more than 2022-24. It is our most recent sample, after all. Still, if the Raiders' offensive line (PFF's 32nd-ranked unit in 2025) and scheme (OC Chip Kelly was fired in late November) were bad enough to hold back Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers … shouldn't at least some slack be given to Smith?
Consider: Supporting Cast Rating, which is calculated by taking every offense's average PFF rank in rushing, receiving, run blocking and pass blocking (everything except passing). Clearly Smith was thrust into a far worse offensive environment in 2025 with the Raiders:
Geno Smith supporting cast rating by season
- 2022 (Seahawks): 14th
- 2023 (Seahawks): 15th
- 2024 (Seahawks): 16th
- 2025 (Raiders): 31st
Yes, the Jets' supporting cast finished 2025 ranked … 26th. Also yes, there are some quality young pieces in this offense with a chance to grow if you squint. Garrett Wilson and (to a lesser extent) Adonai Mitchell have proven capable of separating at an elite level. Breece Hall is one of the game's most dynamic and explosive running backs. The offensive line theoretically has a high ceiling if early first-round tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou meet their potential.
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Could the Jets still very well function as one of the worst offenses and teams in the NFL? Absolutely. That's been the status quo for over a decade, after all. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic that Geno will be able to provide something closer to his 2022-24 production with a healthy supporting cast.
The major fantasy ramifications here:
- Geno is a LATE-round best ball/superflex dart, but hey, those sorts of QBs can often be values simply by providing a few usable weeks. It wouldn't be surprising if Smith's eventual fantasy projections are close, if not better, than guys like Fernando Mendoza, Cam Ward and Bryce Young.
- It sure seems possible that Garrett Wilson receives the best combination of QB play and high-end volume of his young career. Turning 26 in July, Wilson is in the middle of his prime and deserves to be in the borderline WR1 conversation with fellow No. 1 WRs without clear-cut stars at QB like Chris Olave and Tetairoa McMillan.
- The general upside of this Jets offense in fantasy land is pointing up. We were almost looking at a situation where Carson Wentz was going to be QB1!
- It now sure seems like a matter of when, not if, Kyler Murray signs with the Vikings.
All in all: Not a bad day for the 2026 fantasy aspirations of the Jets, and another sign that the team is all in for the 2027 quarterback class. Hell, yeah.
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