In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity ...
With the Steelers/Texans game in the book, we are moving on to the Divisional Round.
I got the axe in one of my three Guilloteenie leagues, but Iām advancing on in the other two. Hereās what we learned from the drafts ā¦
šļø Puka Nacua at 1.01 was a lock. Both Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey also paid off their Round 1 draft costs, but neither had as clear of a run way to more games as Puka and the Rams. As if things could get any better for Nacua, he now gets a dreadful Bears secondary that just got cooked by the Packers.
š» Colston Loveland > George Kittle. Nothing backfired harder on me than the āKittle-or-bustā strategy at TE. Who knows what would have happened had he not gotten injured, but he killed rosters that selected him with an early pick. Loveland, on the other hand, was the difference maker (23.7) you needed to separate at the sneaky valuable TE position.
š¤ The Jags and Packers did their job. One of the things I focused on in my drafts was just scoring as many points as possible in the Wild Card Round, even if that meant having to pillage the waiver wire in Round 2. Even though they lost, players like Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Travis Etienne and Parker Washington single-handedly advanced teams through thanks to their spike weeks.
Look-ahead moves. If you did lose more than three or four players, itās time to get aggressive on the waiver wire. Here are three waiver angles to consider ā¦
Chopped players - Obviously, a chopped roster is going to have some duds on teams who got bounced. Still, thereās also a high likelihood that players like James Cook, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson have become available after dud games.
Bye week players - If you played in a sharp league, itās very likely that every Broncos and Seahawks player is still available. I would not be shy going hard for RJ Harvey (no J.K. Dobbins and an incredible matchup vs. Bills run defense) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (heās JSN and gets a poor Niners secondary).
New sleepers - With no Kittle, players like Demarcus Robinson (6-111-1) and Jake Tonges become more viable as adds.
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Chrisā Way-Too-Early Look at 2026ās First Round
Honestly, the playoffs havenāt been all that interesting. Iām ready to turn the page to 2026.
Sike. Iām just playing.
Iām yet process all of last year, and this past weekendās action has been, to quote the meme, absolute cinema. However, letās go through what the first round of next season might look like. Sure, weāve still got the draft and free agency to consider. A lot is going to change. But itās never too early to start prepping for drafts.
1.01 - Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
The minimum PPR point total for an RB to be in the top five this season was 322.8. I used that value and went back over the last five years to put together a usage profile of what we should expect out of rushers we should consider at the 1.01. Those players averaged 69.7% of their teamās carries, a 15.0% target share and 70.3% of the touches from inside the 10-yard line. And looking at Bijan Robinsonās 2025 outing, I can see him hitting most of those marks in about 11 months.
Rushing Attempts: 63%, 14th (amongst all RBs)
Target Share: 20%, 2nd
Green-Zone Touches per Game: 1.1, T-25th
Thereās no question about Robinsonās talent. Our only concern is how often he gets the ball. Tyler Allgeier has been a thorn in the side of fantasy managers looking to get RB1 weeks out of the Falconsā RB1. But with the backup looking to test free agency, that ceiling outcome for Robinson may be in the cards.
1.02 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
Now, on the one hand, Jahmyr Gibbsā 2025 wasnāt that dissimilar from Robinsonās. The āBama product finished his third season with just 57% of the Lionsā carries and an 18% target share. His explosive run rate was almost the same, too (8.4% to 8.6%). However, Gibbsā trajectory as the goal-line back looks a bit better.
2023 (Touch per Snap Rate): 47.8% (Gibbs), 34.8% (Robinson)
2024: 57.1%, 64.5%
2025: 59.3%, 54.5%
Detroitās offseason will already be under scrutiny as theyāre still looking for a new OC. But to go with a scheme adjustment, the backfield might be changing as well. GM Brad Holmes has indicated that trade conversations around David Montgomery will take place, as Gibbs has moved into the RB1 spot. Even with concerns about the offensive line, a bell-cow role for Gibbs could push him ahead of Robinson.
1.03 - Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
Believe me when I say, I wanted to put JaāMarr Chase here. And Iāll get to him in a sec. But Puka Nacua just went back-to-back seasons with a YPRR above 3.0 on a similar target volume. Of course, the most concerning stat for Nacua is his ātent visits per gameā metric. But heās averaged no fewer than 9.1 targets per game since joining the Rams. There was just one week with Nacua outside of the top 24. Matthew Staffordās health and future as LAās QB1 will impact Nacuaās ADP, but without any indication heās going to hang up his cleats, Iād expect to see his WR1 at the top of drafts.
Itās the Great Eight of the NFL Playoffs. For many, itās the best weekend of football of the year. Last year, only one game was decided by double digits, and it was a 45-31 upset victory by the Commanders over the Lions that saw plenty of offensive fireworks from both sides. This year, we have the reigning MVP (Josh Allen), two contenders for this MVP (Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye), a couple young stars on the top seeds (Sam Darnold and Bo Nix). It really is a wide-open field.
Jorge Martin provided a quick look ahead to the Divisional Round, offering up some hits on all six of the teams that advanced out of the Wild Card Round.
Q: We saw some huge playoff debuts on Saturday night, with Jalen Coker (9 catches, 134 yards, 1 touchdown) and Colston Loveland (8 catches, 137 yards) both notching big games through the air. However, neither came particularly close to the NFL record for a playoff debut, which was set by this All-Pro receiver:
