Week 7 RB Rankings: Quinshon Judkins and Rico Dowdle Are Set To Smash
Matthew Freedman zeroes in on his favorite running back plays for Week 7 in fantasy football, including Quinshon Judkins, Rico Dowdle and Kimani Vidal.
It's Week 7.
We're almost halfway through the fantasy football season.
Gone are the illusions and adrenaline. The pretense and potential.
Hope.
All that's left is the present, the future, the mirror, and your roster.
In the words of Jim Morrison: "The soft parade has now begun."
Let's get into the Week 7 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 7 fantasy rankings and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 7 fantasy football plays.
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Week 7 Running Back Rankings
Quinshon Judkins in Week 7 Smash Spot as Home Favorite
The second-round rookie missed Week 1 and then eased into Week 2 (27.4% snap rate), but even in his limited NFL debut he had 71 scrimmage yards, and in the four games since then he has impressed with 374 yards and 2 TDs on 74 carries and 9 targets.
And the Browns have had a -39 point differential over the past month.
If Judkins can produce when the Browns are losing, just imagine what he might be able to do when they're winning … and this week—in a sign that the gawds of gambling and football truly do have a sense of humor—the Browns are consensus 2.5-point home favorites.
On top of that, Judkins has a friendly foe in the Dolphins, who are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.049, per RBs Don't Matter).
Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins have made backups Rico Dowdle (234 yards, one TD) and Kimani Vidal (138, one TD) look like superstars.
Nothing against Dowdle and Vidal. More on them very soon … but if they can go off against the Dolphins, the young kid can, too.
With a run-leaning game script and advantageous matchup, Judkins legitimately has the upside to smash with 30+ opportunities.
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Rico Dowdle Is Gonna Do It Again in Week 7
I highlighted Rico Dowdle in last week's piece, and then he put up 239 yards and a TD.
If you do that, you're automatically getting the spotlight in the next piece, no questions asked.
Dowdle is giving major 2016 Jay Ajayi vibes.
You remember that?
Arian Foster opened the season for the Dolphins as the starter, he suffered an injury in Week 2, and when he came back in Week 6, he backed up Ajayi, who immediately went off for 423 yards and 3 TDs in two games.
The day after Foster got 5 yards on 3 carries in Week 7, he retired from football.
I'm not saying Dowdle will retire injured starter Chuba Hubbard (calf) … but Hubbard hasn't been able to practice since Week 4, and given how well Dowdle has played, the team could give Hubbard as much time as he needs (and maybe a little more than that) so he can recover fully.
And that means I expect to see Dowdle start again in Week 7.
The magnitude of what he has accomplished over the past two weeks cannot be overstated: The dude has balled out with 473 yards and 2 TDs on 53 carries, 9 targets, and an elite 95 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
In Week 5, he was the No. 1 RB in fantasy (30.9 points, per our Fantasy Life Scoring Matrix).
And then in Week 6, he was even more productive (31.9 points), and he utterly owned the backfield with a 90% snap rate.
Some contextualization is warranted: He was at home in both games, and he played the pitiful Dolphins and Cowboys defenses.
But I still like this spot for Dowdle: The Panthers are 1.5-point favorites, so Dowdle could benefit from a run-leaning game script, and the Jets could be weary after playing (and losing a close game) in London last week.
Kimani Vidal Is the Week 7 Hot Hand
With RBs Omarion Hampton (ankle, IR) and Najee Harris (Achilles, IR) on the sideline, the Chargers turned to the duo of Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins in Week 6.
Although NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported shortly before the game that Haskins was "expected to be the lead back"—expected by whom, exactly?—it was Vidal who got the first touch for the team in the first quarter, and from there he dominated the backfield.
- Vidal: 138 yards, 1 TD | 18 carries, 4 targets | 88 Utilization Score
- Haskins: 23 yards, 0 TDs | 6 carries, 1 target | 27 Utilization Score
With Hampton out, Vidal looks like the No. 1 RB for the Chargers.
This is almost needless to say … but it still needs to be said: If available in your league, Vidal is a waiver priority. In Guillotine Leagues, I wouldn't spend half my FAAB on him, but I'd more than be sure that no one gets him cheaply.
As for this week, the Chargers are 1.5-point home favorites, and the Colts are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (48.0%).
I expect Vidal to stay hot.
The Checkdown
Rachaad White (Buccaneers) at Lions: Playing in relief of injured starter Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder), White has 157 yards and 3 TDs over the past two weeks. I expect Irving to miss at least one more game, and the Bucs could funnel even more of the offense through the backfield now that WR Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) has joined WRs Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (fibula) on the injury report.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) at Cowboys: Croskey-Merritt has 218 yards and 2 TDs on 31 carries and 3 targets as the starter over the past two weeks, and now he faces a Cowboys defense that is No. 32 in defensive rush SR (49.7%) and could be without EDGE Marshawn Kneeland (ankle) and LB Jack Sanborn (concussion). "Bill" about to look like a $100 bill, y'all.
D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs. Saints: This offseason, the Bears seemed desirous to add someone to challenge Swift in the backfield … but they didn't … and now Swift has 447 yards and 3 TDs on 70 carries and 21 targets through five games. Most importantly, he maintained his workload on Monday Night Football out of the Week 5 bye (14 carries, 3 targets). He should see a similar workload this week as a 5.5-point home favorite.
J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs. Giants: Dobbins disappointed last week (40 yards, no TDs), but it was his second straight game on the road (and fourth in five weeks), he was in London, he still had 15 opportunities (14 carries, 1 target), and in his five prior games he looked good (425 yards, 4 TDs). This week he's a 7.0-point home favorite, and the Giants are No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (4.8%, per FTN). I have the Broncos as a four-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Titans: Without No. 3 RB Antonio Gibson (knee, IR), Stevenson had a season-high 71% snap rate and 54% rush share last week. Yeah, he had only 18 yards on 13 carries and a target—but, still, it was the Mondre show, and I expect him to perform much better this week against the Titans, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+8.3) and without DT T'Vondre Sweat (ankle, IR) as well as maybe EDGEs Arden Key (thigh) and Oluwafemi Oladejo (calf).
Notes
Byes: This week, the Bills and Ravens are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 7 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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