What Separates NFL Draft RB Prospects For Fantasy Football Glory

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

It's easy to look at NFL Draft running back prospects and simply say, "Give me the big, fast guy." And hey, being big and fast are objectively good things, but there's obviously a bit more nuance to being someone capable of handling 15-20 touches per game at the professional level.

Specifically, three factors seem to continuously rob running backs of the opportunity to stay on the field across all three downs:

Drops and fumbles: Ball security, job security!
Pass-blocking ability: No block, no rock!

We can get a decent idea of how incoming running backs perform in these areas with a handy-dandy formula I made up after consuming a few delicious Mike's Hard Lemonades called "The Little Things." This takes the average rank from every RB's career drop rate, pressure rate allowed and fumble rate.

The returns from the 2026 class (pinch to zoom in!):

Two big takeaways:

Yeah, that Jeremiyah Love guy is pretty f*cking good.
Jonah Coleman! Woah!

The Washington product racked up nearly 4,000 total yards from scrimmage and scored 37 times in four seasons of college ball, rarely having any issues with ball security or pass protection along the way. Hell, the man took out likely top-10 pick Sonny Styles! This all makes more sense when you realize Coleman is built like a brick house: At 5-foot-8, 220 pounds, he has a BMI in the 97th percentile among running backs!

The Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model has Coleman tied with Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price as the second-best back in this class, while the Fantasy Life Draft Guide also certainly seems to be a fan of the 22-year-old talent:

Don't expect Coleman to hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft, but there are a number of fantasy-friendly Day 2 landing spots that could get interesting in a hurry. For example …

2.64 to the Seahawks: The only meaningful replacement Seattle has brought in for Kenneth Walker is longtime Packers backup Emanuel Wilson. Adding Coleman to this backfield would give them someone capable of handling a big-time early-season workload while Zach Charbonnet (ACL) gets back to 100%.
3.71 to the Commanders: Will Washington even have the chance to draft Love with the No. 7 overall pick? If that answer is no, Coleman in early Round 3 would be a pretty solid consolation prize inside a backfield that could really use a capable between-the-tackles grinder to replace Chris Rodriguez.

There are a number of other teams that could use a bit more depth at the position (San Francisco? Detroit? Las Vegas?), but Seattle and Washington stand out as the top 2 spots that could target Coleman–or another rookie RB, for that matter. Any one of them would have a chance to potentially start from Day 1 inside an offense with actual high-end scoring upside. Not a bad potential marriage on Day 2 of the draft!

Now we wait 24 more long, cold days for that whole draft thing to get here …

TWO OF COLEMAN’S COMPS ARE CURRENT NFL STARTERS

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RB Sleepers: Jonathon Brooks Returns

That’s right, he’s back. That running back who tantalized so much during the draft process two years ago, only to have knee injuries be his biggest downfall. But with a return to health, now he can look forward to terrorizing NFL defenses and editors making sure his first name is spelled correctly.

Jonathon Brooks is one of the sleepers at the RB position this season, and it could be a pivotal year for the talented back with just 9 career rushing attempts, all in 2024 before he suffered his second ACL tear. Dwain McFarland hasn’t forgotten that Brooks had a fairly healthy Rookie Super Model profile heading into the league:

Brooks was hard to bring down. His career 34% missed-tackles-forced rate sits in the 83rd percentile since 2017, and his 4.1 yards after contact lands in the 60th percentile. He was a capable pass blocker who rarely fumbled—a back with multiple paths to playing time and the electricity to carve out a larger role.

Chuba Hubbard figures to open the season as Carolina's No. 1 back, but Brooks could challenge as the year progresses. Just last season, Rico Dowdle took over this backfield. This coaching staff rides the hot hand, and Brooks offers oven-mitts-hot upside.

Matthew Freedman and Pete Overzet also took their turns dropping their favorite RB sleepers for the coming season. ⤵️

THIS RB IS IN ARGUABLY THE BEST TANDEM IN THE NFL

Could Tee Higgins Bring You The Hardware?

If you believe your dynasty team is on the cusp of championship glory, sometimes all it takes is a couple of well-timed trades for undervalued veterans to tip the scales. Luckily, I’ve got a few options that fit the bill.

Last offseason, this article helped folks scoop up Davante Adams and Javonte Williams at bargain prices and possibly even ride them to the playoffs. We’re hoping the names below will do the same.

Tee Higgins, WR - Bengals (WR22)

Want a stud receiver without having to pay stud receiver prices? Are you OK if that receiver for sure misses at least a couple of games every season? THEN YOU’RE IN LUCK!

The freshly 27-year-old Higgins is obviously second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase in the Bengals offense, but that fiddle can be pretty damn loud in its own right. Here are Higgins’ per-game fantasy finishes in half PPR since Chase was drafted by Cincinnati:

2021: WR13
2022: WR19
2023: WR41 (booooo)
2024: WR4 (yayyyyyy)
2025: WR11

Higgins’ role as the high-aDOT guy makes him a little less consistent, but his boom potential also makes him a frequent week winner. The injury concerns are obvious, but so is the upside. And even though he’s technically the WR2 on his own team, Higgins has proven to be extremely capable of providing WR1 fantasy numbers.

Swapping out Brian Thomas Jr. or Marvin Harrison Jr. for Higgins is a solid move for contenders.

TWO MORE VETS TO TARGET

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