🕵️ 4 BIG Clues To Backfield Mysteries
RB2s come into focus...
Pete Carroll is on blast...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- 4 murky backfields get cleared up
- OverReaction Monday: 2 fades
- A sleeper WR you can’t ignore
- Lessons from Preseason Week 2: An RB & TE on the rise…
- It's 8/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Each week of the preseason gives us more and more valuable information to parse through and inform how we draft our fantasy teams.
This weekend gave us further clarity into four murky backfields I’ve been keeping close tabs on. Let’s dig in…
🕵️ The Bills RB1 revealed?
James Cook’s ADP has been on the rise the past week and we’ve been beating the drum for him around these parts, but he’s arguably still too cheap for a lead back on one of the best offenses in football:
Cook continued to solidify himself atop the Bills RB depth chart after playing 86% of the snaps with the starters and a 70% route participation in the Bills second preseason game.
After Kenneth Walker and J.K. Dobbins are off the board, he’s the clear best RB pick for me.
🕵️ The Bengals RB2 cleared up?
We’ve been anxious to figure out the Bengals RB2 for months now and we’re finally starting to get some clarity. The answer, however, is truly a surprise:
“The shoes of Samaje Perine may not be filled by just one player, but Evans looks like the best candidate to do so if it comes to that. Trayveon Williams—by no fault of his own—has become a backstory to the renaissance of Chris Evans, who has looked competent as a runner, receiver, and pass blocker in the backfield. He's gone from a player the coaches couldn't trust to an all-purpose back eager for more.”
John Sheeran, AToZSports
This is one of the exact situations where I don’t want to be wedded to my priors after mixing and matching either Chase Brown or Williams into builds where a Cincy back made sense. But I now want to be quick to adapt to this new information.
Evans locking up the third-down job is being reported in multiple places, so it’s time we pay attention and draft accordingly. I’ll be boosting my Evans exposure down the home stretch.
🕵️ Is it time to re-order the Steelers’ RB depth chart?
Jaylen Warren ripped off a 62-yard TD with the Steelers starters over the weekend, but still played firmly behind Najee Harris:
If this movie sounds familiar (the one where the backup RB wildly outperforms the incumbent while fans scream for a usage flippening), it’s because the same hero’s journey played out in Dallas for years:
It’s only a matter of time before Warren forces the team’s hand and relegates Harris to a situational role. There are rarely situations that are this easy to exploit in fantasy. Take advantage:
🤔 Has the heir to The King arrived?
Derrick Henry remains the king for now, but it appears that he has a worthy backfield mate for the first time in his Tennessee tenure:
A lot of ink has been spilled about Tyjae Spears and his ACL issues, but they certainly aren’t inhibiting his homerun ability in the short term.
If Spears separates from Hassan Haskins (he hasn’t been practicing) as the clear RB2 for the Titans, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be going closer to Tank Bigsby (another buzzy, rookie RB2) in drafts. Load up.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall overreacts to the preseason with two players she’s fading...
If you don’t already know, Fantasy Life has a show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio every weekday!
We go through all the latest news and fantasy discussions, and every Friday we are treated to an interview with the one and only Matthew Berry.
The reason I’m starting Overreaction Monday like this is because he is the inspiration for today’s topic.
When we asked Berry to name a player he couldn’t stop drafting (after the fourth round), he answered with wide receiver Gabe Davis. And of course, the follow-up was who is he fading, to which he said, Jonathan Taylor.
By the start of fantasy football season, everyone has their “my guys” and the players they hope will win them a championship.
We’re going to do the opposite today – let’s go through a couple of players that I’ve started to fade more and more as the season gets closer.
😱 Miles Sanders
Remember that scene in the office where Michael Scott is talking about his vasectomy (snip, snap, snip, snap) … this is how I feel about Miles Sanders.
He signed with the Panthers on a four-year deal worth $25 million back in March and that’s when the ‘three-down role’ conversations started, but I go back and forth on whether I believe this role will really skyrocket Sanders into the fantasy success we want.
In 2022 with the Eagles, he finished fifth in the NFL with a career-high 1,269 rushing yards, and his 11 rushing touchdowns were also a career-best. However, we can look at his high-end efficiency and tell ourselves a story that playing with a quarterback like Jalen Hurts did open up wider rushing lanes and that playing behind PFF’s top-ranked offensive line helped out a bit.
I want to believe Sanders will get something close to that three-down role, but find myself passing on him at his current RB21 price to focus on other running backs in the same range like Javonte Williams and James Cook.
😱 Michael Pittman
Look, I get it. When Matt Ryan is your quarterback things can go a little wrong in fantasy football. Michael Pittman posted a solid 25% target share in 2022 but couldn’t get much going at 9.3 yards per reception on a 7.7 ADOT. He ultimately finished last season as WR22.
And as talented as Pittman is, it’s tough to argue that Anthony Richardson will turn things around immediately. Now, is Richardson going to be THAT GUY in fantasy this season? Hell yeah, I believe so! The rushing upside is insane for the rookie, but that doesn’t mean he will improve the league’s reigning 30th-ranked offense in net yards per pass attempt.
Overall, I am not buying into the idea that Richardson can suddenly become a high-volume passer (yet) and I like other wide receivers going in his range much more.
Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers are all receivers I find myself drafting when given the option between them and Pittman.
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📢 A sleeper WR in Arizona continues to make noise. He’s going to play.
😅 Poor Bryce Young. He’s never going to shake the short jokes.
📺️ We will never deny you the joy of a Deuce Vaughn highlight. You’re welcome.
🚀 JSN is gonna be a problem. What a throw by Drew Lock, too.
🔮 The Bills’ plan is coming to fruition. You’ll need to pay up in drafts, though.
👀 There’s still time to draft the perfect team. No in-season management needed?!
🚑️ Scary scene in New England on Saturday. All eyes are on Isaiah Bolden.
🙏 Hope Jimmy Graham is okay. He had a scary event over the weekend.
📈 The biggest ADP risers since June 1. Pretty quiet, all things considered.
🧨 Snoop Dogg puts Pete Carroll on blast. Even Roger Goodell and Will Ferrell got in the mix.
Week 2 of the preseason is in the books, and we have more real on-field information to sink our teeth into. Take it away, LaMarca…
The start of the regular season continues to inch closer. We’re nearly through the second week of the preseason, which means we are less than three weeks away from the debut Thursday Night matchup between the Lions and Chiefs.
Plenty of teams decided to get a more significant look at their starters this week, so there were a handful of takeaways from a fantasy perspective. That’s going to have a meaningful impact on ADP heading into the heart of redraft season.
Let’s dive into five of the most noteworthy performances from preseason Week 2.
🤫 Don’t Sleep on Tank Bigsby
Bigsby was a Day 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but most fantasy players weren’t particularly worried about him heading into the season. Travis Etienne is coming off the board as RB14 on Underdog, which puts him as an early fourth-round pick.
For comparison, Kenneth Walker faces a similar situation in Seattle. The Seahawks used a Day 2 pick on running back Zach Charbonnet, which caused Walker’s ADP to plummet.
Walker was routinely coming off the board inside the top two rounds in NFFC drafts before the draft, but his ADP has dipped to around 60 in recent months:
So why has Walker been dinged so heavily while Etienne has been virtually unpunished? I think the initial answer was that Bigsby didn’t feel like much of a threat, especially since Etienne was a first-round pick.
However, that perception should change after the first two weeks of the preseason.
Bigsby has been extremely impressive through his first two games. He gashed the Cowboys for 52 yards on nine carries in Week 1, and he followed that up with 70 yards on 13 carries against the Lions in Week 2. Overall, he’s averaged more than 5.5 yards per carry.
Bigsby was already someone that the coaching staff has had rave reviews for during training camp:
Add it all up, and he could be some serious competition for Etienne this season.
Bigsby would likely need an injury to Etienne to become a “league winner,” but he’s shaping up as a solid midround option at the position.
As for Etienne, he becomes a riskier option with each Bigsby carry.
🚀 Darren Waller SZN
Tight end is one of the trickiest positions in fantasy.
Travis Kelce remains the top dog at the position, and he’s someone who routinely comes off the board in the first round of drafts. He’s in a clear tier of his own, providing his drafters with an advantage at tight end that is unmatched at any other position.
After that? Things get a bit dicier.
Mark Andrews is the consensus No. 2 tight end, and like Kelce, most people tend to think he’s in a tier of his own. But after Friday night’s performance from Waller, I’m starting to think that Andrews deserves some company.
It was only one drive, but Waller ran eight pass-routes in his Giants’ debut. He was targeted on four of them, good for a whopping 50% target share. He responded with three catches for 30 yards, making him the clear leader for the Giants’ passing attack.
It’s not like Waller is unfamiliar with being a top fantasy tight end. He previously checked that box with the Raiders only to see his role diminish last year due to injuries and the addition of Davante Adams.
With minimal competition for targets in New York, it should surprise no one if Waller cracks the top three at the position this season, and he might even challenge Andrews for the No. 2 spot.
His ADP is certain to continue to rise, but he’s looking like a potential steal at his current position of 67.2 on Underdog.
Read on for more Week 2 preseason lessons
