🧗♂️ A Rookie WR Is Climbing
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight a rookie WR who has the stars aligning, rookie risers and fallers, and more.
After the NFL Draft, normal humans start drafting fantasy teams…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Everything Aligning for this Rookie WR?
- What Now? Live. Laugh. Draft.
- Rookie Risers & Fallers
- Dynasty Stock Watch. Treylon to THE MOON.
- It's 5/3. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…
It is an amazing time to be alive.
With the NFL Draft in the books and Best Ball Mania IV popping off, we are watching the market react in real-time to rookie landing spots.
Gone are the days of weeding through iffy mock draft data where half the drafters leave after Round 3 or waiting until August for real drafts to get cranking. Nope, in 2023, we already have legit data based on over 1,700 $25-entry drafts, and it is only May 3rd!!!
That said, no rookie WR climbed more in the last few days than Jonathan Mingo. The market has spoken, and we must decide how to react.
📈 Jonathan Mingo, Panthers — ADP Up 58.9 Spots
💪 Strong Draft Capital
Mingo gained steam late in the draft process. At 6’2” and 220 pounds, running a 4.46 forty-yard dash, he was one of the only size-speed combination options in the class. The Ole Miss WR climbed from late-round status to a top-80 pick in mock drafts but ultimately blew that projection away as the eighth pick in the second round. The Panthers have big plans for Mingo, pairing him with their No. 1 pick — QB Bryce Young.
With great draft capital — the most highly correlated factor with future NFL success — in tow, Mingo lands on a Carolina depth chart lacking high-end target competition.
🔨 Overcomeable Depth Chart
Adam Thielen will be 33 this season and registered a WR6-worthy PFF receiving grade (65.6), targets per route (15%) and yards per route run (1.06) last season with Minnesota. Additionally, D.J. Chark Jr. was added in free agency, and while he is a decent deep threat (15.9 aDOT), he has never been a target hog. In two seasons, Terrace Marshall Jr. has failed to live up to his second-round capital.
⚠️ Lackluster Production Profile
With so many positive factors going Mingo’s way, it is easy to see why the BBMIV crowd has quickly pushed his ADP to Round 13. While that price tag is still palatable from an opportunity cost perspective, there is a major red flag in Mingo’s profile. He wasn’t a productive college WR, bombing multiple factors that correlate with future NFL success.
- 30th-percentile career receiving yards per team pass attempt
- 39th-percentile best receiving yards per team pass attempt
- 16th-percentile career YPRR
- 41st-percentile explosive target rate
For his career, Mingo delivered a 17% TPRR, well below the 25% average we see from future top-24 performers. With his second-round draft capital factored in, this cocktail creates a 69th-percentile score in the WR Super Model. WRs with similar scores to Mingo in the model have registered a top-24 season 7% of the time, and 14% have reached the top-36 in their rookie season.
🤓 Draft Window Is Now, But Chill If Price Gets Too High
Mingo’s ADP will likely keep pushing higher as we move into the summer, so grabbing shares now isn’t a bad idea. While he has a chance to pay off, this type of profile hasn’t often found success in Year 1. Keep that in mind if he reaches the single-digit rounds like some other early second-rounders in recent seasons.
🔮 The Future Is Now
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Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re reading this newsletter because you’re here for the long haul. “What now, Cooter?” Each week I’ll break down ways to survive the off-season.
Survival Tip No. 8: Back to the Basics
Wake up, buttercup. Our three-month “football-free” slumber is over. It’s time to officially plug back in after the NFL draft.
However, just like we preach in fantasy, you don’t win a championship on draft day. Let’s get back to the basics with a few reminders before the hype trains leave the station:
🏆 Only One Team Wins
Despite all of the excitement surrounding incoming rookies and their hopeful pairings within the league, only one team will win the Super Bowl. Source? Trust me.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but only one team will win your fantasy league championship, too. So temper your post-draft expectations justttt a little bit.
It’s fine to celebrate draft picks. It’s fun to speculate how those new additions will bolster each NFL team. But there will absolutely be teams and players that fumble the bag. I’m looking at you, newly appointed backup QB Zach Wilson.
Celebrate in the moment, but brace yourselves for the potential pain that comes with high expectations. Not every draft pick will play out the way we hope, and not every team will figure their sh*t out this season.
32 teams have bettered their chances, but there can only be one.
💌 Don’t Forget Fandom and Friendships
It’s time to iron out your old NFL shirts and dust off your jerseys. Find your old pig skin and toss it around with your neighbor while you talk about the weather or whatever it is good neighbors do.
Most importantly, it’s time to call them. Your true friends. The smart ones.
Make sure they’re still committed to staying in your home league. See if they want to vote on a fun league punishment. Hell, call everyone up and start up a new league with weird scoring, because why not?
Fantasy football has never been just about winning.
At its core, fantasy football has always been about rooting for players and watching the games with your friends… while you win. Duh.
🎒 Players are Human
While some NFL Scouting Combine results seem super-human, these players are also 20-something-year-old kids. They have high hopes and expectations, just like we do.
The NFL draft results are about more than just fantasy production.
While it’s fun to speculate on Jahmyr Gibbs’ ceiling and which week Will Levis might become a starter, these guys are packing their bags and moving to a new team that comes with new obstacles, barriers, and bananas. They’re human, too.
🤝 Quality Over Quantity
I know I just said you should start a new league just for the hell of it, BUT we need to consider the context.
Everyone is buzzing with rookie fever and hyped that their friends are starting to talk ball again. It’s contagious. In times like these, it’s easy to fall victim and become the sucker of start-ups. You know, the guy who says yes to every new league and then can’t keep up with waivers once Week 4 hits. Oof.
The quality of your leagues is important. You want leagues that will stand the test of time and that you have the time to stand. (Bars)
Don’t chase the high of drafting blindly. Join leagues with caution. When you find the right group, you’ll know. Live Laugh Draft <3
⚡️ Bijan sporting an ELECTRIC jersey number. Legendary power-up.
🤔 Zeke could play for Dallas again. Good news for Pollard lovers?
🚀 These rookies are ready for blast-off. Who’s rising and who’s falling?
🔥 Caleb Williams + Marvin Harrison Jr. to Cardinals!?!? Everyone. Seems. To. Agree.
📋 It is 5th-year option SZN. Some were picked up. Some weren’t.
🍎 Aaron Rodgers, the puppet master? He’s pulling the strings in the Big Apple.
☝️ NFL GM takes on badge-bros philosophy. Upside or die, Chris.
😎 This rookie doesn’t lack confidence. Best WR duo in the NFL?
❤️️ Seattle loves Zach Charbonnet’s versatility. Could he play pass-downs?
📢 Bold statement. Hard to disagree, though.
With the NFL Draft officially behind us, Sam Wallace looks at a few players who saw significant shifts in their dynasty stock.
📈 Dynasty Stock Up
👨🚀 Treylon Burks
The Titans made a splash early on Day 2 by selecting Kentucky QB Will Levis. After falling out of the first round, Levis has the opportunity to become the heir apparent to Ryan Tannehill.
Perhaps more surprisingly, Tennessee didn’t select a wideout until the final round. Behind second-year WR Treylon Burks, there’s a steep dropoff to the next option. It’s possible no team has a more significant gap between their WR1 & WR2.
Elite target volume is all but assured for Burks this season.
Tannehill and Burks both struggled with health last season. However, if they remain healthy, they could build on the success we started to see. Dwain McFarland had this to say about Burks in his Week 12 Utilization Report:
In six games, the rookie has three superstar-level TPRR performances.
Talent is the No. 1 factor for WRs, and the best way to understand talent is the ability to demand targets.
The first-round NFL Draft pick leads the Titans in TPRR (23%) and has little competition for targets.
The opportunity for Burks to erupt this season is right in front of him. His closest competition for targets has 906 total receiving yards in three years (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine).
Burks to the moon in 2023 and beyond.
📉 Dynasty Stock Down
😢 Kenneth Walker
One year after selecting RB Kenneth Walker in the second round, the Seahawks spent another second-round pick on rookie RB Zach Charbonnet. In reality, Seattle needed the depth, but it’s still unfortunate for Walker managers.
Charbonnet grades as the RB3 (80th percentile) in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model. He’s a tier below fellow RBs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, but he’s in a spot to contribute right away.
Charbonnet also demonstrated top-end elusiveness and big-play ability in his career. His missed tackles forced rate (0.23) put him at the 73rd percentile, while 17% of his rushing attempts went for 10+ yards (69th percentile).
In his final two seasons at UCLA, Charbonnet totaled:
- 398 rushing attempts
- 2,496 rushing yards
- 61 receptions
- 518 receiving yards
- 27 total TDs
In 2022, he was a second-team All-American and had the second-highest PFF rushing grade among all RBs with 100+ carries.
These are all great things for Seattle but not for Walker and his fantasy managers.
Prior to the NFL Draft, Walker’s dynasty ranking climbed to RB5. I assume he’ll drop a few places, but he should still be inside the top 10 based on talent and situation.
