👀 Don't forget about Year 2 WRs
In today's Fantasy Life newsletter, the team checks in on the NFL's rising year-two WRs, Luke Musgrave's dynasty fantasy football profile, and more.
It’s legal to discuss non-rookies in April…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Checking in on the NFL’s rising year-two WRs
- Best fantasy RB landing spots: Bengals sit at No. 1
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: TE Luke Musgrave
- 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Pick 3
- It’s 4/11. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft takes place in a mere 16 days.
The Fantasy Life crew has you covered with countless dynasty profiles and Super Model tiers on the incoming rookies, but remember that the 2023 fantasy season will undoubtedly be defined more so by the veterans.
% of top-12 fantasy producers by years of experience over the last 10 years (PPR per game ranks, minimum 8 games) https://t.co/MlvvYnyp4d
Today’s topic: What’s happening with the 2022 NFL Draft’s crop of WRs?
1️⃣ 2022 first-round WRs
📈 Falcons WR Drake London
London was flashing some lethal route-running ability for a man his size even before the late-season breakout (6-95, 7-70, 7-96, 5-47, and 6-120 receiving lines during the final five weeks).
Still, he had just one game with eight-plus targets in Weeks 1 to 11, with Kyle Pitts active vs. five-such performances during the final six weeks. Their workloads were nearly identical when both were healthy.
✈️ Jets WR Garrett Wilson
Wilson deserves a medal for putting up an 83-1103-4 receiving line while catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco – and he did so in style.
There’s serious boom potential as the undisputed No. 1 WR in an offense presumably led by Aaron Rodgers.
🏃♂️ Saints WR Chris Olave
All Olave did in 2022 was average the fifth-most yards per route run by a rookie receiver over the past 10 years (PFF):
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
2022 Olave (2.42)
⏱️ Lions WR Jameson Williams
Williams wound up touching the ball just twice in six games as a rookie. It was cool that those two touches produced a 41-yard TD as well as a 40-yard rush — and there was also the rather awesome 66-yard TD in Week 18 that was called back by a penalty — but it was largely a lost first season.
Fast forward to 2023, and Williams finds himself as the clear-cut No. 1 outside WR on the league’s reigning fifth-ranked scoring offense after the Lions didn’t re-sign D.J. Chark.
🤻 Commanders WR Jahan Dotson
The PPR WR28 in Weeks 1 to 4 before missing the next five games with a hamstring injury. Dotson did return for the stretch run and made the sort of plays that you’d expect from a top-16 pick.
The rising second-year talent’s fantasy ceiling is dependent on the team figuring out a real solution under center – I would LOVE to see Anthony Richardson be that guy, pal.
💨 Titans WR Treylon Burks
The allure of Burks is simple: He flashed down the stretch and remains the clear-cut No. 1 WR inside an offense with arguably less target competition than any other unit in the league.
🏀 You're Not Too Different From The Lakers...
and no, we aren't talking about your jaw-dropping athleticism...
The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off tonight. Win, and they lock up the No. 7 seed. Lose, and they play one more game for the No. 8 seed.
So...how does that make you similar to the Lakers?
Just ask BetMGM.
With BetMGM's First Bet Offer, it doesn't matter if you win or lose, because they're paying back up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.
The point - neither you nor the Lakers need to win in order to have a second chance.
Even so, winning is fun, so we pulled in resident NBA bettor Matt LaMarca to help out with his favorite bet.
💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Lakers (-8)
The first matchup in the Western Conference play-in tournament features two teams heading in opposite directions.
The Lakers have quietly been one of the better teams in basketball since the All-Star break, ranking sixth in the league in Net Rating. They made some quality additions at the trade deadline, while Austin Reaves has blossomed into a quality rotation player. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis seemingly at full strength, this team has plenty of positives to build on heading into this matchup.
On the other side, the Timberwolves are in a state of turmoil.
Everything seemed to come to a head on Sunday when Rudy Gobert was sent home after punching Kyle Anderson on the sidelines, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand after punching a wall in frustration. The team has suspended Gobert for tonight’s game, and McDaniels is set for an extended absence.
Not exactly what you’re looking for before your most important game of the season.
These two teams met two weeks ago in Minnesota, and the Lakers managed to secure a 12-point win. We could be looking at a similar outcome on Tuesday.
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What follows is a breakdown of the most fantasy-friendly RB landing spots available for free agents, trade targets and draft picks alike. Fantasy is the key word here; we’re looking to see which offenses would optimize fantasy points, not necessarily real-life wins. Take it away, Ian...
Supporting cast goodness and ease of pathway to the starting job were the main factors considered. Landing spots are only being considered for 2023. Cool? Cool.
😎 Best available RB landing spots:
🐅 1. Cincinnati Bengals
🦅 2. Philadelphia Eagles
🐟 3. Miami Dolphins
There was a lot of potential inside this backfield when free agency started: Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin entered the open market with free reign to sign with whoever they wanted.
Fast forward to the present day … and all three RBs returned to Miami. This leaves the offense with few available opportunities. However, it’s tough to be overly confident about either Wilson or Mostert completely nailing down the starting job considering how often they rotated down the stretch of 2022.
Whoever winds up working as head coach Mike McDaniel’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside simply by existing in the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense.
That said: No team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.
Ultimately, this Dolphins offense figures to continue to flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle before anyone else.
Wilson deserves the slight edge in the ole fantasy rankings thanks to his youth, superior contract, and enhanced playing time (even though Mostert was banged up). Even then, it'll be tough to rank either as a top-30 RB without more information surrounding McDaniel's plans for the position.
Ideal scenario? The team adds a clear-cut No. 1 RB who erases the present unpredictability of this backfield.
💭 Dream match: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
Even more speed inside the Dolphins’ already-electric offense. Gibbs could handle an Austin Ekeler-esque role as the clear lead back (especially on passing downs) while getting spelled when the offense feels like running between the tackles.
Click here for the rest of Ian’s top RB landing spots!
💪 Thank you Dane Brugler: The Beast is here!
📰 Reading between the lines: Good news out of Baltimore.
🏌️♂️ Masters champion Jon Rahm was jinxed by a certain NFL TE. Good thing he won anyway.
☎️ Chaos at the top of the NFL draft? Adam Schefter’s sources are sourcing.
🏈 The NFL’s reigning MVP worked out with some young QBs in Los Angeles. People helping people.
🎉 One of the best corners in NFL history just turned 75. Happy Birthday!
🐆 Top QB recruits continue to make visits. This could be fun!
❓ The NFL reportedly isn’t nearly as high on this position as the media. Overrated?
💯 Luke Musgrave
Rookie Draft Ranking: 34th (TE4)
Underdog ADP: 237.9
Rookie Super Model: 61st percentile
➕ Pros
📈 Potential for Spike Weeks
Musgrave had 76 targets across his four years as a Beaver. No, that’s not a typo. He amassed the same amount of looks in about a half-decade as a few of his classmates did just last season.
OK, so he won’t be Travis Kelce, nor can we project him to be. But a Dawson Knox comp is palatable, given Musgrave’s on-field production and average depth of target (aDOT).
Musgrave operated in line for 57.7% of his snaps, per PFF. So, while Oregon State didn’t deploy him as an obvious receiving threat, his size-speed combination made him one. He’s one of five TEs in the class with above-average yards per team attempt (0.88) and aDOT (13.2).
After showing out at the NFL Combine, Musgrave emphasized what scouts already saw on film. He can slide right by defenders after a smooth release from the line. Given the right situation, Musgrave’s athletic traits and receiving skills have spike-week potential despite lacking an every-down role in the passing game.
✋ Improved As A Receiver
Musgrave’s metrics in his final season at Oregon State are like a ray of hope in a cloud of mid. He opened the season with career highs in TPRR (30.0%) and ran a route on 89% of Chance Nolan’s dropbacks, but a knee injury ended Musgrave’s senior campaign after only two games.
We can’t take anything from his alpha-like numbers. But his progression heading into 2022 lends credence to the idea he was improving.
Musgrave ascended as an efficient pass-catcher at Oregon State while maintaining a 16% target per route run (TPRR) average across all three seasons. Musgrave has shown the ability to develop into a more reliable talent. However, he needs more time to get there.
➖ Cons
📉 Can’t Handle Competition
Sure, Musgrave athletically compares well to Dawson Knox, as I mentioned earlier. However, the comp falls flat when considering Knox’s teammates. The 2018 Ole Miss squad featured A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Elijah Moore. And let’s just say I had to google notable NFL WRs from Oregon State, and none of Musgrave’s former teammates made the cut (shoutout to Isaiah Hodgins, though).
So Musgrave’s scant role in the Beavers’ aerial attack already has my eyebrow raised. A comparison to the rest of his class over the years doesn’t change my thoughts.
Musgrave may have been able to generate yards, but that’s it. His team contribution lagged behind his peers with only 44 receptions and two touchdowns. His career-best 8% dominator rating in ’21 sits in the 22nd percentile. Without any confidence he can consistently earn targets, we can’t project him to have worthwhile fantasy value in his rookie season.
‼️ Fantasy Impact
Musgrave is coming off an injury, wasn’t his offense’s focal point and primarily worked on the line of scrimmage. None of which sound enticing to a fantasy manager. However, he does have a few things working in his favor.
Musgrave had a top-12 pass-blocking grade in his most-active season. Combined with his athletic testing, his likelihood as a second or third-round pick has legs.
Musgrave would best fit on a passing offense in need of help along the line but short on receiving depth (e.g., Carolina, Miami). However, even with a prime landing spot, his inability to draw targets would make him a dart-throw TE3 in best-ball or redraft formats.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist has put together a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 3 pick to the Cardinals Titans...
✊ 3.) Tennessee Titans - QB, Anthony Richardson, Florida, Jr.
6’4, 244lbs, 20 years old
Rookie Rank: QB:1, Superflex: 2
According to insiders, the Cardinals are reportedly entertaining offers from multiple interested parties vying for the opportunity to snag the supremely gifted Anthony Richardson, who boasts the title of the most athletic QB in combine history.
Just one week ago, Richardson sat at +200 to be the third overall selection. As I am writing this, he is now -105.
His expected probability has risen from 33% to 51% to be the third overall selection.
