🏈 Fade THIS Playoff Team
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we highlight the best draft strategy from the 1.01 draft spot, guys you want to draft in 2023, and more.
Yes, that’s a reference to a relatively minor New York indie band from the 1980s, because we wanted to see just how obscure we could get …
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:
- Pessimism pays off with a +250 bet.
- “Reactive Devaluation”: The name of my HS garage band.
- A MAJOR sports media transaction.
- Get these guys if you want to win.
- How to dominate when drafting with the 1.01.
- It’s 8/9. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
If you like a team before the season kicks off, there are many ways to leverage your enthusiasm.
You can bet on the team to win the Super Bowl or its conference or division. You can take a position on the team to make the playoffs or exceed its win total.
You can back its players in the awards markets and go over on their season-long player props. And, naturally, you can draft them in your fantasy football leagues.
But if you dislike a team, there aren’t many avenues to register your antipathy via a futures bet.
The main way is to take the under on wins, which is why I view the win total market as a place for en vogue pessimism. Like France, minus the hats or accents. Or Istanbul. (Callback, nailed it.)
Plus, win total markets are usually inflated.
There are 272 games this year, but often all of the team totals add up to 274-276 games, with the juice slanted to the over. And that makes sense, given that most bettors would rather back teams they like than fade teams they dislike, and their lopsided action moves the lines and juice up. In other words, it’s a market full of buyers -- and that creates opportunities for sellers.
And there’s one team, in particular, I want to short: The Giants.
⬇️ Giants Under 5.5 Wins (+250, BetMGM)
The standard win total for the Giants is 7.5 -- but if you’re willing to indulge your skepticism you can bet under 5.5 at the enhanced odds of +250 in the alternate market at BetMGM.
And my Giants cynicism is nourished.
Despite going 9-7-1 last year, the Giants had a -6 point differential. QB Daniel Jones is an average-ish talent. On paper, they have bottom-six WR/TE and OL units on offense and bottom-six Back Seven units (LBs, secondary) on defense.
On top of that, the Giants have a schedule that compounds upon itself as it progresses.
🤠 Week 1: Loss to Cowboys
In Week 1, they’re +3.5 underdogs at home against the divisional rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. For the sake of argument, let’s say they lose. They’re 0-1 … and then they play 4-of-5 away.
🚗 Weeks 2-6: On the Road, Forever
In Week 2, they travel west for an afternoon game against the Cardinals, which is followed up with a Thursday Night Football road game against the 49ers. Even if they stay out west, they’re in a tough spot with back-to-back road games 2-3 time zones away on short rest. Let’s assume they beat the Cardinals but lose to the 49ers: 1-2.
For Week 4, the Giants return home and have three extra days of rest against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, but they’re deprived of the benefit of playing a West Coast team in the early time slot. That game will be a coinflip, but I lean Seahawks because they could be better on both sides of the ball this year. Giants: 1-3.
And then in Weeks 5-6 they have back-to-back road games as notable underdogs against the Dolphins and Bills. That puts them at 1-5.
🏠 Weeks 7-8: Home, But Minimal Advantage
After that, they’re home for the next two games -- but they host the NFC East rival Commanders and same-stadium Jets. Home-field advantage is significantly diminished within the division, and the Giants will have almost no home advantage against the Jets. Let’s say they split: 2-6.
👋 Weeks 9-11: Away, Away, Away
And then comes the epic coup de grâce: A three-game road trip. In Week 9, they go to Las Vegas, where they’re underdogs to the Raiders in the afternoon. In Week 10, they go to Dallas, where they’re even bigger dogs in a rematch with the Cowboys. Then finally in Week 11 they go to Washington for a rematch with the Commanders.
Back-to-back divisional rematches as the second and third games of a three-game road trip? That’s criminal. Giants: 2-9.
🦅 Where are the Eagles?
And here’s what’s absolutely brutal about all of this. The Giants still have to face a Bill Belichick-led Patriots defense right before the Week 13 bye… and they still have two games remaining against the Eagles (Weeks 16 & 18).
The Giants aren’t likely to win only five games, but once you look at their schedule it’s easy to see how they could pile up losses. If you use the Fantasy Life odds calculator, you’ll see that the under has a 28.6% implied probability of hitting at +250. In reality, I think there’s a 35-40% chance of the under cashing.
For more analysis, check out my Giants betting preview. For more bets from everyone on the Betting Life team, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.
You can tail the Giants under on BetMGM, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up here!
⏰ The NFL Season Is Almost Here
Time is running out to lock down the games you want to attend...
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Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, let’s get inside those mushy little brains and engage in some mental warfare. Let’s go mental!
🙉 Reactive Devaluation
A few weeks ago I took out my metaphorical megaphone to yell about increasing league participation. I explained, a little loudly, how leaguemates will inherently care more about a league that they help to create.
And while that is true, it may not be as simple as I implied…
You see, while giving everyone an avenue to voice their ideas is beneficial, we have to watch out for another cognitive bias: Reactive Devaluation. If the leaguemate that is proposing the ideas is viewed in a negative light, their suggestions are less likely to be heard.
To put it simply: If you are viewed as the antagonist of your league, you won’t find much support for your ideas.
🏆 What does this mean for fantasy football?
👏 Rule Changes
Leagues can get stale, especially if they’ve been together for a long enough time. We all get the itch to switch something up.
Maybe you want to add keepers, move from rolling waivers to FAAB, or even change your playoff seeding. A little change, when voted upon, never hurt no one.
But your league might devalue any and all of your ideas.
It’s a bummer, but we’ve all seen it happen in real time. “Hey guys, what if we…” DENIED. Change is scary and if your buddies don’t trust you or your motives, you won’t get anywhere.
✅ Solution 1: Inception. Sprinkle small hints of your ideas into casual conversation. “Man, remember last year when Trey got first pick on waivers every single week? Must be nice...” Tiptoe around the discussion. And maybe, just maybe, someone else will think the rule change was their idea first and suggest it to the group for you.
✅ Solution 2: Find a trusted, outside source to explain or vouch for the rule change. An article. A video. Whatever you can find, share it with the group. It’s their idea now, not yours.
👊 Punishments & Side Bets
Here’s my megaphone again: Here Ye! Here Ye! Punishments and side bets should not only be encouraged, but required!
Punishments don’t have to be an ‘end of season’ thing. Any given week you can choose to go toe-to-toe with anyone in your league. Choose a side, set the penalty, and voila! Side bet time.
But we are hardwired to devalue ideas that come from our enemies and adversaries… remember? This can cause a huge problem in fantasy leagues when anyone proposes a league punishment that isn’t you…because everyone is an adversary. EVERYONE.
✅ Solution 1: You need to build rapport with your league. Being the antagonist can be fun, but it’s going to be a barrier to initiating any kind of punishment or side bet.
✅ Solution 2: Well… Let’s just say that we know generating league punishments can be a cause for contention. And Fantasy Life has got you covered this season. Stay tuned 👀
📈 RBs might not matter, but this guy has a market. Multiple teams are looking at this former rushing leader.
📼 Not every rookie QB becomes a star. How many hours of tape did he say he watched???
💰 The inmates are once again running the sports media asylum. El Presidente is back in office.
🏆 We can’t stop drafting best ball teams. But who have we been drafting the MOST?
🏴☠️ Maybe the three-time first-team All-Pro WR is a good fantasy pick? No matter who throws him the ball, he produces.
💤 Personally, I spell “league winnerz” with a “z.” Get these guys at the end of your draft.
🫂 Why would you waste space in the newsletter to highlight a defensive player? It’s a feel-good redemption story.
🔢 This RB is about to have 2,000 yards receiving. Adjust your ranks.
🗑️ “Unofficial depth chart” = “garbage”: Don’t freak out, but this star rookie is listed as the No. 3 RB on his own team.
🔥 I’m sure that fantasy drafters won’t overreact. This offense is going all Edgar Allen Poe.
If you’re drafting from the 1.01 in Fantasy Football, you’re the only one in your entire league with the option of any player you want in the entire draft. While the selection may seem clear-cut, things can get challenging at the turn. Today, Matt LaMarca is here to guide your process from the coveted 1.01 draft spot…
Congratulations. You’ve officially secured the top pick in your fantasy football draft, giving you the pick of the litter. You can take whoever you believe to be the best player in fantasy, whether it’s a running back, wide receiver, or tight end.
After that? Things get a little more complicated.
Let’s dive into my roadmap for navigating the top pick in fantasy football drafts.
🏆 Start With Justin Jefferson
Who to grab with the first pick is a pretty easy decision this season. Jefferson is pretty widely considered the best skill-position player in fantasy after racking up 128 catches, 1,809 yards, and nine touchdowns last season. Austin Ekeler just barely edged him out in PPR scoring despite nine additional touchdowns, and Ekeler is almost certainly due for some regression.
Meanwhile, It’s not hard to imagine Jefferson having an even better season in 2023. For starters, Pro Football Focus credited Jefferson with 11.1 expected receiving touchdowns last year, so he could easily see some improvement in that department.
Additionally, Jefferson’s target metrics were pretty pedestrian compared to some of the league’s other top receivers. Jefferson ranked ninth in target share, and with Adam Thielen now in Carolina, he could see a spike in that area as well.
Jefferson is coming off the board in with an ADP of 1.1 in Underdog drafts, while he has an ADP of 1.2 in FFPC contests. He occupies the top spot for all four of our rankers, so clicking his name is the easiest part of the draft.
↩️ Uncertainty at the 2-3 Turn
While the first selection is pretty easy, what to do at the Round 2-3 turn is a much tougher call.
Personally, I’m hoping to land a stud running back that falls past ADP. Tony Pollard is the dream target, but with an ADP of 18.5 on Underdog, that’s not going to happen very often. Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor are more realistic targets, but they also have ADPs slightly below this range.
If all three of those players are off the board, I’ll probably pivot to other positions. Josh Jacobs is the next RB up in our consensus rankings, but taking him at pick 24 or 25 feels like a reach.
Taking a quarterback in this range might feel early, but the position is changing. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen all put up massive statistical seasons in 2022-23, and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again. Grabbing one of those three players gives you a huge edge at the position, so grabbing one at the 2-3 turn is advisable if you don’t like the running backs and receivers.
Of the trio, our rankers give a slight edge to Mahomes, but Hurts and Allen arguably provide higher ceilings.
At receiver, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Calvin Ridley are likely to be the best options on the board. Ian Hartitz and Rob Waziak have Higgins as their favorite option of the bunch, while Dwain McFarland prefers Ridley. All three players are more high-end No. 2 options than No. 1s, but they’d be solid complements to Jefferson.
Pairing one of them with Jefferson and a high-end QB likely leads you to a “zero RB” strategy moving forward. It doesn’t mean you can’t grab a running back in the next few rounds, but you’re likely going to be behind the eight ball at that position compared to most of your leaguemates. That’s not nearly as damning as it would’ve been 10 years ago. Just make sure to keep your eyes peeled for any RB value that pops up during the draft and on the waiver wire.
Read on for the rest of the 1.01 Draft Strategy
