🏈 Football Is Almost HERE!
The preseason is OUR SZN …
If you’re already in 150+ best ball leagues, then you’re enough of a degenerate to bet on NFL preseason games. (No judgment.)
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:
- One. More. Sleep. Till. FOOTBALL.
- League Punishments: “Shame. Shame.”
- A Rookie QB Gets All the Starter Snaps.
- JSN or Lockett? Both.
- Javonte Williams: Finally Some Good News.
- It’s 8/2. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
I’m a degenerate. You’re probably one too. You subscribe to a newsletter about fantasy sports … and you actually read it … during the offseason.
Don’t act as if you’re not a full-blown sicko.
As such, you’ll probably want to make some bets on NFL preseason games over the next month.
Here are a few guidelines for betting on the NFL preseason, as well as a bet I like for tomorrow’s Hall of Fame game — the most important contest of the entire calendar year (other than the Super Bowl, I guess).
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), moneyline (ML), over/under (O/U), return on investment (ROI). Historical sports betting data from Action Network (via Bet Labs).
💸 Bet on the Ravens
No one takes the preseason more seriously than HC John Harbaugh. His Ravens teams tend to be deep and disciplined, and that combination pays dividends in the preseason.
Under Harbaugh, the Ravens have dominated.
- Harbaugh in Preseason: 38-16-1 ATS (35.9% ROI)
- Harbaugh in Preseason: 43-12 ML (45.0% ROI)
I doubt we’ll see the Ravens as underdogs at Commanders (Week 2) and at Buccaneers (Week 3), but they might be getting points vs. Eagles (Week 1) — and Harbaugh as a preseason underdog has historically been a printing press.
- Harbaugh as Preseason Underdog: 17-5 ATS (51.9% ROI)
- Harbaugh as Preseason Underdog: 15-7 ATS (61.5% ROI)
I’m not saying that you should mortgage your house to bet on the Ravens in the preseason. But maybe your mother’s house? Worst-case scenario, she can live with you if it doesn’t work out.
One second. “Ma, the meatloaf!”
Where was I?
☀️ Bet Unders in Hot Weather
I don’t have preseason temperature data before 2019, so the sample is small, but since then, the under is 8-2 (50.3% ROI) in games with a temperature of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
In general, I think the trend of “the hotter the weather, the fewer points scored” makes sense. Few players want to go hard in the heat.
With that in mind, here are the games that at a glance look like they might offer some weather-based betting opportunities.
- Falcons at Dolphins: Fri. 8/11, 7 pm ET (Week 1)
- Steelers at Buccaneers: Fri. 8/11, 7 pm ET (Week 1)
- Jets at Panthers: Sat. 8/12, 4 pm ET (Week 1)
- Ravens at Commanders: Mon. 8/21, 8 pm ET (Week 2)
- Lions at Panthers: Fri. 8/25, 8 pm ET (Week 3)
- Bengals at Commanders: Sat. 8/26, 6:05 pm ET (Week 3)
- Ravens at Buccaneers: Sat. 8/26, 7 pm ET (Week 3)
- Dolphins at Jaguars: Sat. 8/26, 7 pm ET (Week 3)
Disclaimer: I might have missed some games. I’m not a meteorologist, be sure to check the weather closer to kickoff, etc., etc.
✈️ Fade the Team of Hard Knocks
The Jets have gotten a universe of hype since trading for four-time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers in April. And they are the team of the 2023 season of Hard Knocks.
Historically, the team on Hard Knocks has had inflated lines in the preseason.
And that’s what I expect to see with the Jets this year, which means that I like the Browns -2.5 vs. the Jets in the Hall of Fame game tomorrow (-110, BetMGM).
Given that this contest is in Canton, OH, the Browns don’t exactly have a home-field advantage, but they also definitely don’t have the travel disadvantage of the Jets.
I like the Browns roster, and I like mobile Browns QBs Joshua Dobbs, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Kellen Mond a lot better than pocket QBs Zach Wilson, Chris Streveler, and Tim Boyle in what amounts to a glorified backyard football game.
I would bet this to -3.
For the rest of my preseason guidelines, check out my 2023 preseason betting overview. For more bets from everyone on the Betting Life team, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.
Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, let’s get inside those mushy little brains and engage in some mental warfare. Let’s go mental!
But don’t worry, we know generating league punishments can be a cause for contention…Fantasy Life has got you covered. Stay tuned 👀
🧠 The Psychology Behind League Punishments
We aren’t going to dive too deep into behaviorism here. I’m talking about league punishments, after all. Not Pavlov. But we do need to talk about how our brains react when met with a punishment.
I’m very aware that not every league has a punishment looming in the distance, but I think they should.
And here’s why:
😉 That Extra Oomph
I have advocated for league punishments and side bets for years. But it’s not just because I anecdotally find them fun.
Punishments can provide us with extra motivation. That extra oomph…
Sure, rewards are better, but only one of us can win. So in turn, only one of us can be rewarded.
What do we do about all of the league mates that miss the playoffs with no reward in sight? Well, we dangle a punishment in front of them, that’s what!
🦥 No Slacking Off
Sure, there are a slew of factors in fantasy football that are unpredictable. But sometimes, losers are just lazy leaguemates.
Let me ask you this: Does your league chat fizzle out after a few weeks? Are people not setting their lineups or hitting the waiver wire with the fire and tenacity that you‘d expect (or maybe not at all)? Does your league mentally check out after they’ve missed the playoffs?
Punishments can teach us to avoid whatever action got us penalized in the first place. And sometimes our league needs a refresher course.
So let a league punishment motivate everyone to stop f*cking up and slacking off.
🤝 Sharing is Caring
It’s easy to get behind the terror side of things, but what do punishments have to do with a shared sense of camaraderie? Well, when people adopt the same attitudes and motivations, it can increase feelings of social belonging.
Awww <3
Merely belonging to a group and sharing in all the fear and fun can increase your league’s participation.
Because with a punishment, we are either sweating it out together or we are rooting for the loser to look silly together. Regardless of what it is, we are doing it together.
The turmoil, anguish and enjoyment can be shared by all. YAY FOR PUNISHMENTS!
And I’m sure even the loser-iest of losers can still find something fun to be said about the experience. Not that I would know, of course.
So remember, sharing is caring.
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⬆️ He took every practice rep with the starters. The arrow is pointing up for this rookie QB.
❓ A reporter highlights something that almost happened. We’re nearing the zenith of training camp SZN.
🤞 A star WR walked off the practice field. Fingers crossed that it’s not too serious.
⚜️ There’s a lot of bounce-back potential in this offense. Will they return to form?
🥪 A star RB walks into a New York City deli. Sometimes the setups write themselves.
🐎 Would it be fair to call him “Mr. Unlimited”? This injured RB is practicing without limitations.
📈 Comparing ADPs to Fantasy Rankings. Exploit these misprices.
🫖 I prefer my GMs to read tea leaves instead of scouting reports. This veteran RB might soon have a job.
🏈 The sexiest this guy has looked in years. “Super Bowls and more MVPs.”
⏰ If there’s one thing a 30-year-old WR with 10 games in three years doesn’t have, it’s time. We don’t like this training camp takeaway.
💪 It’s not quite Terrell Owens in the driveway, but it’s still good. This bounceback WR punishes himself with pushups.
It’s easy to forget about a team’s veteran when a new, young player enters the mix, especially in fantasy football. Today, Chris Allen is here to identify some situations around the league that are worth leveraging in your drafts…
Getting new things usually forces me to lose interest in what I have.
It’s like during the holidays when you open a gift. Anything else you were interacting with beforehand becomes less important. The item in front of you takes precedence. And it’s not like the old stuff becomes useless, but curiosity in the unknown is alluring.
We do the same in football.
A team signs someone in free agency or uses an early pick on a player, and the veterans are dead to us. And we’ll use every bit of offseason news to justify the hype. I found a few situations across the league where there may be more fire than smoke and how we can leverage the info in drafts.
⚔️ Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Tyler Lockett
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: ADP 61.7
- Tyler Lockett: 63.5
The fantasy community had mixed reactions to the Seahawks’ decision to draft Smith-Njigba at 20th overall.
On the one hand, Seattle was flying high after making it to the playoffs despite trading away Russell Wilson. Geno Smith had a career-changing season, and the passing game finished tenth in pass rate over expectation (PROE). So expanding their aerial attack only added confidence to the team for their 2023 campaign.
But on the other hand, the team also added an RB on Day 2. And we’ve seen the offense revert to an inefficient playstyle and crater down the stretch. In 2021, Seattle had a 3.0% PROE, which plummeted to -7.0% while we watched the last of the Wilson era fizzle out. Consequently, drafters can’t wholly trust the Seattle passing game.
Apparently, JSN and Lockett can’t co-exist. One will cannibalize the other’s opportunity. But honestly, it’s not that simple.
🏆 Who Wins?
Seattle will have enough volume to support both WRs. The winner? Geno Smith.
It’s taken some time, but we’re starting to see how Shane Waldron wants to run the offense.
- 2021 with Wilson: 22nd in pace, 32nd in plays per game
- 2022 with Smith: 13th in pace, 22nd in plays per game
We’ve seen similar effects from Sean McVay acolytes in Minnesota and Cincinnati. And a team’s PROE remains stable if the offensive personnel (coaching and QB) remains the same. So we can expect similar tendencies with JSN on the field. Three-WR sets should be their primary formation, but folks may point to last season’s numbers as another reason to choose between Lockett and his heir apparent.
- 2018: 78.1% of dropbacks with 3 WRs on the field
- 2019: 76.4%
- 2020: 68.4%
- 2021: 74.3%
- 2022: 63.4%
With Geno at the helm, Seattle hit a five-year low in their 11-personnel rate. And at first glance, it looks like a knock against Lockett and JSN meeting their ADPs. But think about Geno’s options in obvious passing situations.
The Seahawks were trotting out players like Freddie Swain (6 ft., 197 lbs) and David Moore (6 ft., 219 lbs) to Marquise Goodwin (5’9”, 185 lbs) and Dee Eskridge (5’9”, 190 lbs). Unsurprisingly, we saw less out of Seattle’s ancillary WRs.
Smith-Njigba had the fourth-highest YPRR while posting a top-20 mark in YAC per reception in his final healthy season at OSU. Goodwin, Laquon Treadwell, and Eskridge combined for as many red-zone looks as Lockett. JSN’s onfield ability blows past any of their past options, and he can capitalize on any RZ looks without biting into Lockett’s workload.
It doesn’t have to be one or the other when Seattle’s moves indicate they want the pair to succeed together.
Two more situations to leverage in drafts
