👀 It's not ALL about the Rookies
Second-year players have feelings too!
Thank goodness April Fools is over. Worst “holiday” EVER…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life’s Discord Server:
Value check on three under-the-radar second-year players
Day #12,345 of OBJ watch
Dynasty Rookie Profile: Marvin Mims
Fantasy RB Tiers: CMC and Austin Ekeler are cheat codes
Fantasy One Hit-Wonders. They were hits, kinda.
It’s 4/4. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Getting excited about the NFL Draft is perfectly fine. Rookies of all shapes and sizes make an impact every year; it’s obviously important to pay attention to the offseason’s marquee event that singlehandedly alters all 32 rosters in three short days.
And yet (enter, Buzz Killington): The heavy majority of top fantasy performers annually consist of non-first-year talents. While rookies do occasionally infiltrate the top tier of fantasy football scorers, these examples are few and far between:
% of top-12 fantasy producers by years of experience over the last 10 years (PPR per game ranks, minimum 8 games) https://t.co/MlvvYnyp4d
It’s still important to monitor all the rookies set to enter the league, and the Fantasy Life crew accordingly has you covered with all sorts of dynasty-focused rookie profiles.
That said: Today’s goal is to take a brief step back to highlight three relatively under-the-radar players entering their second season who might be poised to make a rather large leap in fantasy land.
🕺 Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
The Titans were getting Chiggy with it in 2022 (I’m sorry).
Seriously though: The fourth-round rookie was arguably the team’s most consistent pass-catcher all season long. While Okonkwo played more than half of the offense’s snaps on just two occasions, he worked as one of the league’s most efficient TEs in just about any metric:
PFF receiving grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 47 qualified TE)
Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 14 (No. 1)
Targets per route run: 26.2% (No. 2)
Draft capital aside, Okokwo profiles as a poor man’s Kyle Pitts: Essentially a WR who is designated as a TE inside of a run-first offense. Maybe the departure of Austin Hooper leads to more of a full-time role for Chiggy in 2023, but if not he’s still a reasonable dart with middling Underdog TE2 ADP.
💨 Packers WR Christian Watson
Watson’s average of 2.26 yards per route run as a rookie ranked 11th among 80 qualified WRs; just imagine how great things would have been without his infamous drop on the Packers’ first offensive play of the season.
Of course, it took until Week 10 for the rookie to show any real signs of life, but after that he posted four consecutive top-10 PPR finishes. The hot stretch cooled over the final month of the season; at a minimum Watson proved capable of winning fantasy weeks thanks to his big-play ability – even occasionally with Jordan Love under center (okay, it was one time).
There’s a low floor here should Love struggle to run the offense, which explains Watson’s middling WR22 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy. Still, that price tag could look like a bargain in a hurry if the 24-year-old QB is a bit better than everyone thinks: Watson has the makings of a boom-or-bust WR3 with the upside for far more.
😡 Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco runs like a cheetah with thoughts of an assassin. Seriously: Getting in this dude’s way must be absolutely terrifying.
Pacheco turned 207 total carries into 1,027 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. He also caught 19 of 21 targets for 195 yards, but the Chiefs regularly turned pass-down responsibilities over to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and (especially) Jerick McKinnon.
Overall, Pacheco never played on 60% or more of the offense’s snaps; he had more games under 30% (7) than he did over 50% (3). It’s awfully difficult for primary early-down RBs to boom in full-PPR fantasy, especially on a pass-first offense like the Chiefs.
Consider: Patrick Mahomes’ league-high 73 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line were a full 20 more than second-place Kirk Cousins (53).
Expect Pacheco to continue supplying some bone-crushing highlights on the ground, but his projected lack of pass-game and goal-line involvement leaves him on the RB2 borderline in fantasy land.
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With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Dwain McFarland discusses the pros and cons of Marvin Mims as a dynasty prospect and which WRs he comps to at the NFL level.
🏈 Marvin Mims
Rookie Draft ADP: 26 (WR10)
Underdog ADP: 233 (WR91)
Rookie WR Super Model: 75th percentile (WR7)
The Fantasy Life Rookie WR Model loves Marvin Mims. He is the only WR ranked in the top two tiers of the model who is not expected to be drafted in the first or second round of the upcoming NFL Draft. Considering that draft capital is by far the No. 1 factor in the model, Mims's ranking speaks highly to his play and production.
The former four-star recruit currently projects to be a third-round selection in the NFL Draft after a strong showing at the NFL Combine, where his 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump metrics all ranked in the 89th percentile or higher. Mims had a top-five 40 time in this class, and of that group, he has the best collegiate resume.
Mims finished his three-year career at Oklahoma with 2,397 yards and 20 TDs on 123 receptions. The vertical threat finished strong with career-high marks in targets (23%) and receiving yards per team passing attempt (2.65) as a junior, and he just barely missed the 30% dominator threshold (28%).
If he surprises and is drafted in the top two rounds of the NFL Draft, Mims could climb to the top of Tier 2 in the WR Super Model.
➕ Pros
📈 Freshman production
While Mims’s junior season was an impressive finish to his collegiate career, the start was almost as impressive. He delivered a 24% dominator rating as a true freshman in 2020 by accounting for 18% of the receiving yards and 30% of the TDs for the Sooners.
As a true freshman, Mims also produced a career-high 33% targets per route run (TPRR), and his 4.07 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked in the 79th percentile, making him only the second player since 2014 to eclipse the 4.00 YPRR threshold before reaching the age of 19.
While he took a small step back as a sophomore with a 2.62 YPRR, Mims still managed a career average of 2.95 YPRR, which ranked in the 72nd percentile.
⚡ Explosive playmaker
Mims was an electric playmaker for the Sooners, with 32% of his targets going for 15 yards or more. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba created chunk plays at a higher rate (34%) in the 2023 draft class.
At Oklahoma, Mims played inside and outside, but one constant remained: his ability to stretch the vertical boundary. His career average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.7 yards grades out in the 79th percentile going back to the 2017 rookie class.
He is at his best on deep crossing routes, as Mims saw many of his downfield targets and yards after the catch created on such play designs.
➖ Cons
📉 Never dominated
Despite having produced 30% receiving yard shares and 30% TD shares in different seasons, Mims never put everything together in one campaign to eclipse a 30% dominator rating.
In addition, his career-high target share of 23% and career 22% TPRR are slightly below-average compared to prospects that went on to find success as top-24 fantasy WRs in the NFL.
Mims is also more of a build-up speed guy on film than an instant explosion type of WR. He can get over the top of defenders, but many of his catch opportunities were contested despite some highlight-reel grabs. Mims must improve to find continued success against better competition at the next level.
📽️ Not ranked highly by the scouting community
Film analysts are lower on Mims than data analysts. And while the film analysts do like certain aspects of his game, none have him graded as a high-end talent.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com echoes these sentiments. He has Mims ranked as his No. 10 WR and rated as a player who can work all three levels as an eventual average starter, but Zierlein has concerns about Mims's ability to win contested catches at the pro level.
If NFL scouting departments see him in a similar light, it could be challenging for Mims to climb into the top-two rounds of the NFL Draft.
🗒️ Fantasy Impact
While Mims’s profile isn’t flawless, he's also not a finished product. He is the youngest WR in the model’s first two tiers, and the data tells us to keep an open mind about his potential upside in the NFL.
The former Sooner might never become a target hog at the next level, but he has plenty of live outs thanks to his big-play ability and vertical prowess. His closest comps in the model are Christian Kirk, D.J. Chark Jr. and Dyami Brown.
Mims is an excellent target in both dynasty and best ball formats thanks to his current low price tags. In addition, his profile already accounts for expected third-round draft capital, which leaves plenty of room for upside should he surprise as a second-round selection in late April.
💌 Matthew Berry’s 2023 free agency Love/Hate is here! Two QBs are major winners.
🏀 April Madness: TV records were broken on Sunday.
📡 Under the radar RBs that you need to draft. Ian & Dwain hook you up.
🏥 One of the NFL’s best RBs is “making excellent progress” in his recovery. Good news!
🎵 We love a good one-hit wonder. Jonas Gray, we see you.
❓ Locked in top-10 pick? Premier agent Drew Rosenhause thinks so.
🤯 A highly-ranked QB prospect has many fans in Carolina. Peter King has sources.
👀 An AFC South team is reportedly gunning for the No. 3 overall pick. TRADE RUMOR SZN.
📝 Fantasy football punishments are the best. When it’s not you, of course.
🐶 Tyreek Hill tried to go WHERE? “They should have paid me.”
What follows is the first edition of Ian Hartitz's 2023 fantasy football RB tiers. The players are ranked in order inside of the specific tiers; just realize the disparity is far wider between tiers than individual rankings. Current Underdog Fantasy ADP and specific pick numbers are also noted.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
🦸 Tier 1: Fantasy football cheat codes (RB1-2)
🐐 RB1: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
Underdog ADP: 3.1 (RB1)
CMC’s pre- and post-trade usage was virtually identical: 17.5 expected PPR points in Weeks 1 to 6 with the Panthers, 18.3 in Week 7 through the NFC Championship with the 49ers.
A slightly reduced pass-game role in San Fran wasn’t enough to stop McCaffrey from racking up all kinds of fantasy points: He scored an absurd 13 total touchdowns in 14 games with the 49ers (including the postseason).
The only real concern for McCaffrey is that a healthier overall backfield leads to slightly less ridiculous week-to-week snap counts. While CMC cleared the 70% snap threshold in 57% of his games with San Fran, he failed to surpass that mark once in essentially the only three games he played with a healthy Elijah Mitchell.
McCaffrey will be 27 by the time the season rolls around, but nothing about his 2022 performance indicated a decline in on-field ability. Continue to fire up the NFL’s all-time RB1 in PPR points per game as just that thanks to his workhorse status inside of one of the NFL’s perennial best-schemed offenses.
🌩️ RB2: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler
Underdog ADP: 12.6 (RB3)
The Chargers have granted their stud RB permission to seek a trade. Nobody has scored more touchdowns than Ekeler (38) over the past two seasons, while his borderline erotic receiving ability would provide a boost to literally any offense in the NFL.
One problem: Ekeler might have a hard time maintaining one of the most fantasy-friendly workloads the position has ever seen on another squad. Targets are earned to an extent, but his 127 pass-game opportunities in 2022 were a full 19 more than the next-closest RB (Christian McCaffrey - 108) and 39 more than third place (Rhamondre Stevenson - 88).
It’d be silly for a team to trade for Ekeler, give in to his desire to land a more lucrative long-term contract, and proceed not to throw him the football; just realize literally no team has provided more expected PPR points per game to its backfield than the Chargers over the past three seasons.
The best-case scenario for Ekeler’s 2023 fantasy stock is to remain with his long-time employer and there’s not a particularly close second.
Ian’s full fantasy football RB tier breakdown!
