š„¶ Weather, Once Again
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, we preview the two Monday Wild Card games, recap a wild Sunday of NFL action, and more.
Delayed a day to avoid a terrible blizzard, Bills-Steelers is now forecast for only a moderate blizzard ā¦
In todayās Betting Life newsletter presented by Betting Life on YouTube:
- Monday Injuries: A.J. Brown OUT.
- Sportsbooks Win: Cowboys lose ā¦
- Bills vs. Steelers: Unders all around?
- Buccaneers vs. Eagles: Someoneās gotta win.
- Itās 1/15: Take it away, Matthew Freedman ā¦
For the first time ever, and quite by happenstance, we have a two-game Monday postseason slate: Bills-Steelers and Buccaneers-Eagles.
While Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the key injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
āļø Bills
No. 2 WR Gabe Davis (knee) is out, but the Bills are otherwise healthy on offense.
On defense, theyāll be without No. 3 S Taylor Rapp (calf) and probably No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee, Q), who didnāt practice this week ā but the extra day of rest might give him a chance to suit up.
I tentatively project LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder, Q) to play after returning to practice on Friday.
Given the forecast (snowy, windy, and cold), the loss of a WR and two DBs might not be keenly felt.
āļø Steelers
In positive news, the Steelers are getting back both of their starting safeties: SS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and FS Damontae Kazee (suspension). In fact, they have only one player listed out to injury.
The negative news is that the absent player is EDGE T.J. Watt (knee), the teamās most important defender. Perhaps thereās an outside shot that the extra day off will give Watt the time he needs to play, but I highly doubt it.
Without Watt, I like Bills RB James Cook ā one of my Wild Card fantasy favorites ā to have success against a diminished Steelers DL.
ā ļø Buccaneers
Depth DT Mike Greene (calf, IR) is not ready to return, and the Bucs might be without No. 3 LB K.J. Britt (calf, Q) and special teamer/CB Josh Hayes (knee, Q), but thereās only one injury of actual note for the team: QB Baker Mayfield (ribs/ankle, Q).
Last week, Mayfield struggled with a ribs injury that seemed to hinder his performance, and he also picked up an ankle issue. I fully expect him to play, but I have downgraded him a little based on his multiple injuries, his Week 18 form, and the fact that he didnāt get in a full practice.
š¦ Eagles
Itās not all bad news. After missing last week, WR DeVonta Smith (ankle), RB D'Andre Swift (illness), and No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee) all practiced fully every day.
And QB Jalen Hurts (finger) got in two full sessions on Friday and Saturday.
But itās also not all good news. No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee) is out, and the Eagles will be thin in the secondary without No. 3 S Sydney Brown (knee) and likely FS Reed Blankenship (groin, Q), who missed every day of practice.
Given that the Eagles are without their top pass catcher and probably two key backend defenders, the Bucs are one of my favorite Wild Card bets.
Check out More of Freedmanās Best Bets!
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š° Free playz for dayz.Ā Weāre up +46.4 units in NFL.
š„§Ā āYou donāt score, until you score.āĀ Two TD bets!
āļø Lines have been released for Packers-49ers.Ā An early Divisional Round bet to jump on.
š§ Packers get a massive win ā¦Ā and so do the sportsbooks.
š Not built different. The playoffs continue to be his Kryptonite.
ā²ļø Get this man a PlayStation.Ā The Rams clock management needs improving.Ā
šŖ¤Ā Jayden Reed.Ā Division finalist. Parlay Killer.
š§ Football:Ā A game made for TV.
šĀ The best Pickāem plays for Monday.Ā Eagles soar?
š¦Ā Michelle Pfeiffer and reasonable home prices. Itās been a long time since the Lions last playoff win.
š§± The worldās best betting system:Ā Fade Clay?
We might not get snowmaggedan, but the Steelers and Bills will still be dealing with very inclement weather when they this Monday. The Bills are heavy favorites and feature a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen at QB. The Steelers are set to start QB Mason Rudolph for the fourth week in a row. Can Pittsburgh make a game of this (or even pull off the upset)? Geoff Ulrich discusses below.
šĀ Best Bet: Under 38.5 (-110, bet365)
- Play to: 38.0 (-105)
This number has now settled in at 38.0 to 38.5, but it seems like itās being propped up by people who think this scheduling move is taking away all the bad weather that was initially in store for this game on Sunday. That doesnāt seem to be the case.Ā
As of writing, the weather forecast reads as follows: Highs of 19 degrees, 1-3 inches of snow, and winds up to 19 mph. Maybe weāre out of public safety territory, but weāre not in shorts-and-shirts or even pants-and-hoodies weather just yet.
We also have two teams with strong under trends going up against each other. Both of these squads went 11-6 to the under this season with the Steelers also posting a 6-2 under record on the road.Ā
I regret missing playing the under on the opening total but with the number popping back above 38.0 we now have another solid opportunity to buy in on the under once again.
ā¬ļøĀ Top Prop: Josh Allen Under 19.5 Completions (-105, DraftKings)
- Play to: 18.5 (+100)
- Projection: 18.0
This total (19.5) feels high to me. The cold weather alone could have an impact on passing efficiency, but the wind is also still set to be at 15 mph or greater, making it far less likely that either team will be dropping back more than necessary.Ā
You also have the fact that the Bills have moved to more of a run-first philosophy since switching OCs. They ended the season with the sixth-highest rush rate and had the third-highest rush rate over the final three games. Thatās led to some extremely low-output games from Josh Allen of late, including a stretch between Weeks 15-17 in which he completed fewer than 16 passes in three straight games.Ā
With our projections also in line and showing a good edge to the under, fading this completion total sets up as one of the more desirable prop plays for me on doubleheader Monday.
šĀ Same-Game Parlay (+1600, DraftKings)
- Under 38.5Ā
- Allen rushing TDĀ
- Allen under 19.5 compilationsĀ
- Allen under 1.5 passing TDs
- Jaylen Warren over 19.5 receiving yardsĀ
I think an under on the total correlates strongly with Allen passing unders in this spot. Allen has been running more and more as the season has worn on, and thatās included more red zone carries as well. He enters this week having scored a rushing TD in 13 of his past 14 games with 15 TDs overall in that stretch.
The Allen rushing TD prop also correlates nicely with an under on his passing TDs (and completions) ā since any Allen rushing score would also mean the Bills are more likely to be ahead and not passing the ball late.Ā
As for Warren, he has averaged 25.4 yards receiving over his past five starts, and with the Steelers as +10 underdogs he could see an uptick in up-tempo snaps near the end of the game.
The final game of Super Wild Card Weekend features the defending NFC Champs traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. The Eagles were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, but a late-season slump has caused their odds to plummet. Can they right the ship against the NFC South champs? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Buccaneers-Eagles.
šŖĀ Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.0 (-115, DraftKings)
Itās extremely tough to trust the Eagles. For starters, their defense has been abysmal down the stretch. From Week 8 on, theyāre 30th in EPA/play defensively. Theyāve been a bottom-four unit against the run and pass, and they allowed at least 415 yards in their final two games against the Giants and Cardinals. Neither of those teams had anything to play for, while the Eagles were playing for the NFC East crown.
Additionally, their offense is banged up. A.J. Brown has already been ruled out, while Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are at less than 100%. Hurts didnāt even throw the ball until Fridayās practice, which is not encouraging before a postseason contest.
Finally, the Eagles have been overvalued for most of the year. They have an expected record of just 8.6-8.4, while theyāre 16th in yardage differential. The result is an ATS record of 7-8-2, while the Bucs are tied for the second-best mark in football at 11-6.
If Phillyās offense shows any signs of decline without their top receiver and with a banged-up QB, itās going to be tough for their defense to overcome it. The Bucs arenāt a great team in their own right, but theyāre at least healthy. Theyāve also been great at stopping the run all season, which matches up well against the Eagles offense.
The key here is getting the full field goal. If this number dips to +2.5, the Bucs become far less appealing. Make sure to grab one of the remaining +3.0s while you still can.
ā¬ļøĀ Top Prop: Julio Jones Over 1.5 Receptions (-125, DraftKings)
I wouldnāt blame you if you didnāt even know Jones was on the Eagles. Thatās how minimal his role has been this season.
However, the absence of Brown changes things. Jones has taken on a larger role down the stretch, posting a target share of at least 11% in three straight games, and heās going to have even more opportunities with Brown sidelined. Brown leads the team with a 30% target share and 41% air yard share for the season, so there are plenty of additional looks up for grabs.
We have Julio projected for more than three targets and two catches vs. the Buccaneers, so thereās solid value with this number.
š¤Ā Same-Game Parlay (+672, FanDuel)
- Buccaneers ML
- Jones Over 15.5 receiving yards
- Rachaad White Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
- White anytime TD
Instead of playing the Bucs on the spread, Iām going to use the moneyline for the SGP. Iām also going to pair that with the over on Jonesā receiving prop since that grades out extremely well in our projections.
After that, Iām banking on a big game from White. Heās not the most efficient runner in football, but he commands a monster workload on a weekly basis. Whether itās on the ground or through the air, expect him to find success in this juicy matchup.
