👀 You NEED to draft this late-round RB
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, we break down the late-round case for Tyjae Spears, Underdog Weekly Winners, and more.
Don’t forget to use sunscreen before fully embracing Hot Best Ball Summer…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the NEW FantasyLife.com:
- The late-round case for Titans RB Tyjae Spears
- Weekly Winners: Pete breaks down Underdog’s new contest
- Jets DL Quinnen Williams got PAID
- Cheapest No. 1 WRs in fantasy: Texans, Panthers, and more
- It’s 7/14. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The Titans’ offense has been the Derrick Henry show for the better part of the last five years. Sure, the likes of A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill mixed in some solid seasons, but this has consistently been one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses during head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure.
- 2022: -10.6% pass rate over expected (30th)
- 2021: -8.2% (No. 32)
- 2020: -9.4% (No. 30)
- 2019: -6% (No. 30)
- 2018: -7.6% (No. 31)
- 2017: -4.2% (No. 24)
Henry has accordingly balled out, posting top-two marks in rushing yards per game in four straight seasons … but how long can this last?
There are serious age cliff concerns at this point for the 29-year-old veteran. The Big Dog has more miles on the odometer than any other RB currently priced inside of the position’s top-36 talents ahead of 2023.
This doesn’t even include Henry’s 619 touches at Alabama, or his infamous high school carry count.
Credit to the man for playing at least 15 games in all but one of his seven career seasons, but it’d sure make a lot of sense if we’ve already seen the best out of King Henry.
😎 Enter rookie RB Tyjae Spears.
Selected with the 81st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Spears carries the draft capital that is consistent with big-time year-one performers and is the fifth-highest-rated back in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie RB Super Model.
Obviously, the 5’10, 201-pound RB isn’t displacing Henry at the top of the depth chart any time soon; just realize Spears profiles as exactly the sort of pass-down threat who could turn Henry back into more of a one-dimensional early-down grinder – and theoretically take over the backfield should disaster strike.
From The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s ever-excellent “The Beast”:
“A three-year starter at Tulane, Spears was consistently productive in offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda’s RPO-based multiple offense. After a torn ACL in 2020 and shared workload in 2021, he had an extremely productive 2022 campaign, finishing No. 5 in the country in rushing yards (1,581) and rushing yards per carry (6.90).
Spears is a slippery runner with his dynamic start/stop cutting skills, patient vision and darting acceleration, which are highlighted on counter and outside zone plays. He has the functional skills to provide value in the passing game, but he can be more dependable as a blocker and pass catcher.
Overall, Spears doesn’t have the desired build or run strength, but his explosive read-plant-burst action allows him to abruptly change his rush path and elude tacklers. He shows the potential for three-down duties, although he will be at his best as part of a committee, similar to the Buffalo Bills’ James Cook.”
Dane Brugler
Dontrell Hilliard, scat-back from ‘22, remains a free agent, while the team’s primary incumbent backup Hassan Haskins was arrested on an aggravated assault charge on June 30.
Spears profiles as a potential “FLEX with benefits” type of RB who could:
Put together some usable fantasy weeks thanks to his potential for a quality pass-down role.
Boom down the stretch due to a Henry injury, or simply because the Titans fall out of the playoff race.
Currently priced as just the RB53 (pick 171) over at Underdog Fantasy, Spears’ long-term knee health concerns aren’t a good enough reason for him to be going so far behind fellow youthful handcuff-plus types like Jaylen Warren (RB44, 135.2), Kendre Miller (RB45, 137.4), Tank Bigsby (RB46, 141.4) and Jerome Ford (RB50, 161.5).
Don’t be surprised if the rookie’s ADP spikes in a meaningful way come August once it becomes clear just how barren this backfield depth chart really is.
👀 The Answer Key To Winning Your League
You've used them before (*cough - SparkNotes - cough*)...
And now, your newest answer key for Fantasy Football and Sports Betting dropped on Monday.
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Underdog recently launched a new, mind-bending best ball contest format called Weekly Winners. It’s an entirely different beast that requires new strategic angles to consider. Today, Pete dives into the myriad of ways to attack this unique contest…
What if you could enjoy both the fun of best ball drafting with the immediate gratification of weekly DFS payouts?
That’s exactly what Underdog Fantasy accomplished with their latest new best ball format: Weekly Winners.
Unlike Best Ball Mania IV and other tournament offerings where Week 17 is largely all that matters, Weekly Winners pays out $205,000 of the $3,500,000 prize pool each week.
With $20,000 going to first place every week for 17 weeks, drafters will get to sweat cash prizes on a weekly basis, as opposed to only in the fantasy playoffs.
This exciting wrinkle to traditional formats presents us with an entirely new puzzle to solve.
And let me tell you…as you start to peel back the Weekly Winners onion, you quickly realize that there are about a million different ways to attack this…
📈 Ceiling is all that matters
In traditional best ball formats, we are forced to balance resiliency alongside ceiling.
You need a team that can outperform 10 other teams in Weeks 1-14, then beat 15 more teams in Week 16, beat 15 more teams in Week 16, and then finally best 440 teams in Week 17. This gauntlet of essentially four uncorrelated tournaments presents interesting roster construction challenges.
But in Weekly Winners, we are battling against 260,999 other rosters each and every week. Sure, the top 1001-7315 teams each week will (almost) get their money back ($10), but the real goal is to finish in the Top 10 and 200x (or better) our buy-in:
To do this, we can throw safety and floor out the window. Who cares if Jameson Williams misses the first six games of the season? Weeks 7-17 are worth just as much as Weeks 1-6.
💪 Draft like you are right…on steroids
One thing we discussed a lot last year in our Best Ball summer school pieces was drafting like you are right. One big mistake new drafters often make is wanting to cover all of their bases and reduce risk:
“Well, what if Patrick Mahomes gets hurt? I’ll want to have another good QB in case…”
This line of thinking results in not maximizing a roster for upside and instead optimizing for safety. When you take Mahomes early, you must work under the assumption that he is going to be in your starting lineup virtually every week, meaning your second QB will rarely be utilized. That pick should instead be used on another skill position player who can strengthen another portion of your starting lineup.
In Weekly Winners, this line of thinking is even more paramount. Because we are competing against so many other teams, we need to engineer our teams even more intentionally around our early-round picks.
Nearly any positional start in this contest is viable–3RBs, 3WRs, QB/pass-catching stack, etc.– but every pick you make in subsequent rounds should complement how you started your draft.
👑 The elite onesies are king
Over the course of 14 weeks in the regular season vs. eleven other teams, or in a playoff pod competing against 15 other teams, you don’t need to have the perfect team to advance.
But in Weekly Winners, it is very likely that you will need not just one or two, but a handful of the highest-scoring players at each position in a given week to win.
Extending that thought, it is very likely that you will need one of the highest-scoring QBs and one of the highest-scoring TEs to crash the top of the leaderboards.
Because of this, we want to be prioritizing both the Elite QBs and Elite TEs whenever possible:
QB:
- Jalen Hurts
- Josh Allen
- Patrick Mahomes
- Lamar Jackson
- Justin Fields
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
TE:
- Travis Kelce
- Mark Andrews
- T.J. Hockenson
- George Kittle
- Kyle Pitts
- Darren Waller
- Dallas Goedert
My favorite teams have one QB and one TE from this cohort. When you do land these elite onesies, it is unnecessary to take any more QBs and TEs.
In the spirit of drafting like you are right, you are now tasked to build a team that can win when both your QB and TE are the highest (or near the highest) scoring players in the same week.
P.S. The Mahomes/Kelce pairing is nearly impossible to get based on their ADPs, but you can still get Hurts-Goedert and Jackson-Andrews fairly easily. Example of one of my drafts from the 2 hole:
Read on for more Weekly Winners tips & tricks
💸 Stud Jets DL Quinnen Williams got PAID. That’s a lot of zeroes.
🔥 HUGE update to the Giants field. That’s hot.
🙏 More info on Saquon Barkley’s ongoing contract negotiations. My best ball teams hope this gets settled soon.
🤔 The Steelers’ rising third-year workhorse RB is sometimes available in Round 4. Are you buying?
👀 QBs surrounded by high-end WRs historically put up huge fantasy numbers. Ian accordingly LOVES these cheap QBs.
🏥 Kyler Murray (ACL) is optimistic about his recovery timeline. So you’re saying there’s a chance.
🏈 A QB competition can open up betting opportunities…and Matthew Freedman found one he loves.
Three offenses don’t have a single WR with an ADP inside of the top-10 rounds of drafts (top 120 overall picks) heading into 2023. Discerning who will rise to the top in these uncertain situations could provide some enticing late-round WR values. Ian breaks down their stories…
Houston Texans
- Nico Collins (WR60 ADP, 131.4 overall)
- John Metchie (WR78, 181)
- Robert Woods (WR86, 205)
- Tank Dell (WR94, 212.3)
- Xavier Hutchinson (WR137, 216)
The allure for Collins comes down to the reality that he’s the incumbent leader in the clubhouse for an offense with more available targets and air yards than any other group in the league.
Collins is a rising third-year veteran who proved capable of demanding targets at a high level last season even when sharing the field alongside former No. 1 option Brandin Cooks.
There isn’t another WR on the roster with Collins’s size, as he measures at 6’4 and 215 lbs., and he sure looks like the offense’s starting X receiver.
I’m in on Collins at cost because he profiles as the favorite to lead all Texans WRs in targets this coming year. The price is right, as he’s usually still available after my favorite middle-to-late-round QB, RB, and TE targets are already off the board.
Things get a bit more interesting behind Collins. Woods seemingly profiles as the offense’s starting Z receiver after fetching $10 million guaranteed in free agency. Plus, he’s well-versed in this system and is a much cheaper version of Adam Thielen, who is even older and faces similar depth chart competition.
I’m not going to pretend like I’m always thrilled to draft the artist known as Bobby Trees, but Woods stands out as a rare potential team target leader alongside guys like Mecole Hardman, Marvin Jones, and Josh Downs, and none of those WRs are even locks to even start for their respective teams in three-WR sets.
Both Metchie and Dell carry Day 2 draft capital, but it’s unclear if either will win a starting spot. Metchie is also already dealing with a strained hamstring.
As for Dell, he has size concerns at 5'8 and 165 lbs., which is somewhat ironic considering his moniker of “Tank”. It's unclear if the rookie would play a true every-down role even if he were to crack the starting lineup. I haven’t made a habit of drafting either Metchie or Dell and much prefer Woods available in the same ADP range.
Read on about who to target from the Panthers and Giants
