49ers at Cardinals

The 49ers will go off as heavy favorites once again in Week 15. They are now at a +175 point differential on the season and have won five games in a row, and all of those wins have come by 13 points or more. 

The line in this game opened around -13.0 at some places but now sits at -13.5 or -14.0. Certainly there will be little to no appetite to back the Cardinals as home underdogs in this spot, but they have excelled in these types of games this season for bettors, going 4-2 ATS as home underdogs in 2023. They also produced one of the biggest outright upsets of the year when they beat Dallas at home in Week 3.

Arizona is coming off an upset win on the road in this game and will also have extended rest given that they were on a bye in Week 14. The late week bye will certainly help a team who injected Kyler Murray (knee) and James Conner (knee) back into their lineup mid-season off lengthy injury absences. Arizona may also get WR Michael Wilson back in the lineup and two cornerbacks in Starling Thomas and Antonio Hamilton. It was also noted that Marquise Brown (heel) who has been bothered by a foot injury, is likely to get in full practices for Week 15. 

Arizona is not at SF’s level (no one is) on offense, but they are 10th in EPA per rush and face a 49ers' defense that is just 20th in success rate against the run. James Conner, who put up a 25-105-2 rushing line against the Steelers should be a pivotal figure for the Cardinals once again. While the 49ers don’t typically allow many yards to opposing RBs (mainly because San Francisco is so good at controlling the ball when they are on offense), two of the 49ers' three losses saw opposing RBs go for 16+ carries and 80+ yards on the ground. If you like Arizona to keep things close, the over on Conner’s yards and carries should be of interest. 

While Kyler Murray hasn’t been exceptional as a passer, the increased health of his WR room should be of benefit this week as well. WRs going up against San Francisco have had success as the 49ers have ceded the 9th most fantasy points and second most receptions to opposing WRs this year. If Marquise Brown is able to practice (in full), he may also be in for a kind of shock game. Pairing his receiving over with Murray’s passing over on Underdog for pick’em contests makes plenty of sense as well when those lines eventually get released. 

Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

On the flip side, this certainly screams “multiple TD” day for Christian McCaffrey, who produced 145 rushing yards on just 16 carries in Week 14 but was held out of the end zone against Seattle, for just the second time this year. Arizona has been run on almost all season, and ranks out 26th in EPA vs the rush. 

More alarming is how often the Cardinals give out big plays in the secondary (31st in EPA per dropback), and the fact they are facing an elite QB-WR-WR-TE coregency with Brock Purdy feeding dead-eye strikes to some of the best after-the-catch receivers in the game in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. 

Purdy leads the league with 9.9 yards per attempt and is in another great spot this week (weak defense, dome environment) to pad his stats and get a leg up in the MVP race. 

There is a lot to unpack in this game for betting and fantasy. The offensive players on both sides feel like they are all in above average spots, and if Arizona does come out and put the 49ers on their heels (big ask admittedly), we could see some monster fantasy games transpire in this meeting. 

At +14.0 I would consider the Cardinals a wager given how solid they have been at home this year. They played the 49ers close for a half in Week 4 (without Kyler Murray) and have the rest advantage. The over on the 47.5 total also looks promising, and the alternate line props on players like Marquise Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Brock Purdy should all be of interest. 

This game feels like it could be a breath of fresh air and provide lots of offensive excitement for Week 15.