Bets from the Group Chat Week 12. Trust in George Pickens.

After a couple of near misses, the group chat parlay record has moved to 3-4. Before you go writing us off, though, it’s worth noting that we’re still up +13.39 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).

We went 2-1 on the individual plays the last two weeks as well, and overall, the singular bets are an incredible 16-5 since inception.

Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay). If parlays aren’t your thing we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!

Week 12 Group Chat Parlay

Mark Drumheller Likes: Ravens -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

Play to: -115

Here are Mark’s own words from our FREE bet tracker:

“Ravens getting healthy with Stanley back, and Flowers expected to give it a go. LA missing Everett is key against a solid Ravens defense that has the personnel to lock up the Chargers' limited weapons. LA's rush defense is mid from a success rate and EPA per rush perspective when you filter out garbage time (20th on first downs).”

Geoff & Freedman Like: Rams -2.5 and Kyren Williams 60+ rushing yards (+185, BetMGM)

Alright, I am combining a couple of bets into one this week to give us our second and third legs. This kind of correlation play worked for us in the past with Taysom Hill rushing props and the Saints covering the spread, and I think we’re in a nice spot to break out the same kind of play again.

Oct 15, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs past Arizona Cardinals linebacker Kyzir White (C) and safety Joey Blount (32) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports

Williams is confirmed starting again this week (after an IR stint), and Sean McVay confirmed he’ll be in his usual role and workload. For reference, Williams went for over 100 yards and over 20 attempts in two of his last three games before hitting IR. He is also playing a Cardinals rush defense that has allowed the third most yards to opposing RBs.

If we like Williams to have a good day in his return, then we should like a Rams cover. In those two games where Williams sailed over 60+ rushing yards, the Rams covered on each occasion (won outright by 6 points or more) and L.A. is facing a Cardinals offense that may be without Michael Wilson (out) and Marquise Brown (questionable). On defense, the Cardinals are now even weaker without DL Kevin Strong (out) and have more key defensive players listed as questionable.

The signs all point to the Rams being a strong spread play in Week 12.

Putting it all together: +613, BetMGM SGP

Ravens -3.0 (-120)
SGP: Rams -2.5 & Kyren Williams 60+ rush yards (+185)

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

Week 12 Ladder Plays

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.

The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.

The Week 12 ladder targets are below.

George Pickens, WR - Steelers (BetMGM)

50+ rec yards (+110) - play to +100
75+ rec yards (+330) - play to +310
100+ rec yards (+700) - play to +650

Cincinnati has now allowed 43 explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on the season (third-most) AND will be without their top corner in Cam Taylor-Britt this week as well. Despite the poor stretch of late, Pickens has gone for 100+ yards in three games this season (in 10 games) already, and should be freed up for more targets this week with OC Matt Canada finally being let go by the team.

Given that we have now seen five different WRs go for 80+ yards against the Bengals in their last four games, playing Pickens through 75+ and 100+ yards this week looks like a solid upside venture for Week 12.

Rashid Shaheed, WR - Saints (DraftKings)

60+ rec yards (+290) - play to +210
70+ rec yards (+425) - play to +450
80+ rec yards (+650) - play to +900

It’s a Week that ends in K, so another great time to take a shot with one of the NFL’s best downfield weapons in Rashid Shaheed.

What makes this spot even spicier, though, is the fact the Saints will likely be forced to up his workload thanks to the Michael Thomas injury. Shaheed saw a season-high nine targets in Week 11 once Thomas left the game and faces an Atlanta defense that allows far more explosive plays via the pass than run.

Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a long pass in front of Indianapolis Colts cornerback Tony Brown (38) during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

While Shaheed’s production can be a roller coaster, he’s already gone for 60+ yards in 4/10 games this year, and the +290 odds on DraftKings look juicy at that level considering they suggest a 26% implied probability of that occurring. Of course, we know Shaheed can go bigger as he’s fourth in yards per catch and has exceeded that 80+ yard mark in three games this season as well. Atlanta’s secondary is solid but not infallible and allowed DeAndre Hopkins a career game earlier this year when the veteran grabbed four catches for three TDs and 127 yards.

Shaheed’s regular prop of 37.5 projects as a strong over target for us on Fantasy Life, but if you want more upside and bigger payouts, laddering up to bigger levels in this spot is certainly warranted—and will likely be in future weeks as well, unless the odds adjust.

You can tail the Shaheed ladder on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Bets from the Bet Tracker

Each week the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.

Matthew Freedman Likes: Travis Etienne Jr. UNDER 16.5 carries (-115, Bet365)

Projection: 15.1
Cutoff: 15.5

Etienne has gone under this total in three of his last four games now. Part of the issue is that the Jaguars have been limiting his snaps more of late to try to keep him fresher (sub 70% snap share the last two games).

The other issue is that he’s also got competition for carries from Trevor Lawrence, who averages around 5.0 carries per game. Add in a Houston team who is solid against the run on defense and explosive on offense, and you may have a poor game script for Etienne to approach the over on this big total in Week 12.

You can tail Etienne at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of just $1 or more!

Geoff Ulrich Likes: Kenny Pickett over 192.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel)

Projection: 203.3
Cutoff: 197.5

Maybe I’m being too ambitious, but I really do think that with Matt Canada out, and the weaker Bengals secondary on tap, the totals for all the Steelers receivers in Week 12 are all too small. And, if I think that, by default I almost have to like the over in this scenario for Kenny Pickett as well.

Pickett has his faults, but he’s still working with an explosive receiver out of the backfield in Jaylen Warren, a superb route runner in Diontae Johnson and a deep ball wizard in George Pickens. If the Steelers show any improvement in efficiency this week, the big plays will likely come fast against a Bengals defense that is dead last in explosive pass plays allowed, per snap, on defense this season.

You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Bets from the Group Chat Week 12. Trust in George Pickens.

Week 12 Group Chat Parlay

Mark Drumheller Likes: Ravens -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)

Geoff & Freedman Like: Rams -2.5 and Kyren Williams 60+ rushing yards (+185, BetMGM)

Putting it all together: +613, BetMGM SGP

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Week 12 Ladder Plays

George Pickens, WR - Steelers (BetMGM)

Rashid Shaheed, WR - Saints (DraftKings)

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Bets from the Bet Tracker

Matthew Freedman Likes: Travis Etienne Jr. UNDER 16.5 carries (-115, Bet365)

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Geoff Ulrich Likes: Kenny Pickett over 192.5 passing yards (-113, FanDuel)

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