Broncos at Chargers 

Both of these teams are still involved in the hunt for the final two playoff spots in the AFC, but time is running out. For the 5-7 Chargers, a loss likely means another season with no playoffs and another blown chance to capitalize on Justin Herbert’s rookie contract. 

The team comes in off a win, but the win was about as uninspiring and visually horrific as a win can be. Los Angeles only managed 6 points against the Patriots last week—including 39 yards rushing—but still managed to pull out the W and even covered the spread in the 6-0 win. 

Justin Herbert’s arm was the catalyst for most of the Chargers' yards last week, but he’s starting to run out of people to throw to. Keenan Allen played through an injury and wasn’t as effective as he normally is, and Austin Ekeler (2-9 last week) has been abysmal as a pass catcher in this new Kellen Moore offense. If there was a bright spot last week, it was likely that rookie Quentin Johnston stepped up when the Chargers needed him and converted five of seven targets into 52 yards. 

Johnston also had a brutal drop on an easy 20+ yard pass, so while the game was a step in the right direction, it’s also not correct to sound the breakout alarm just yet. The Broncos' defense got absolutely lit up by CJ Stroud (274-1) and Nico Collins (9-191-1), and if Allen is again at less than 100%, the Chargers will need their first-round rookie to take yet another step up in efficiency. 

Nov 13, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) is pushed out of bounds by Buffalo Bills defenders in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The Broncos had a chance to beat the Texans down the stretch last week, but Russell Wilson (186-1-3) couldn’t pull off the late game TD. It’s a stark reminder that while Wilson is having a bounce-back year, he’s not the QB he was in Seattle, when those kinds of drives routinely ended with him pulling off some kind of miracle throw or run to win the game. Wilson’s three INTs were also a huge step back, but he won’t be under as much pressure from this Chargers defense who ranks 28th in yards per attempt against and has just 6 INTs on the season (tied for second least in the league). 

While his bounce-back year has been curtailed a bit by Wilson’s eroding talent, WR Courtland Sutton (2-77-1) is in line for a potential big game against this defense. Sutton only managed two catches against the Texans, but just missed out on some other big plays which would have put him over the 100-yard mark and a much bigger day for fantasy purposes. The Chargers have allowed the third most fantasy points and fifth most yards to opposing WRs this season, and Sutton has pushed well past Jerry Jeudy into the number one receiver role in this offense, with a 29% and 30% target share over the last two games. 

The Chargers may also be a great matchup for early down back Javonte Williams to find some traction again. Williams was mostly shut down by the Texans' emerging young front, but the Chargers are below average in success rate and EPA per rush and were allowing some solid runs by Rhamondre Stevenson, before he left with an ankle injury, last week. Williams’s usage tends to go as the Broncos' score goes, so if you think they’ll be ahead late in this game (or that the score will be close for the most part), the overs on his carries and yards will be worth looking at again. 

The spread in this game opened at Broncos +3.0 but has moved down to +2.5 in spots, as people just don’t believe the Chargers can win a critical game. I tend to side with that thesis as well. Sean Payton gives Denver a massive coaching edge and is one of the most profitable underdog coaches from a spread perspective in NFL history, for his career. 

The Chargers just don’t have the versatility on offense right now that can match the Stroud/Collins connection of last week, making this a spot where the Broncos' defense should be able to get more stops. That will likely allow Denver to revert to a steady dose of Javonte Williams and the odd shot to Courtland Sutton, which is likely enough to take down this failing Chargers team.