Chiefs at Chargers 

When the NFL set up this matchup, there is little doubt they had dreams of a Justin Herbert / Patrick Mahomes duel in the L.A. spotlight with the AFC West title on the line. Instead, the majority of this game is likely to be a QB battle featuring Easton Stick vs. Blaine Gabbert (barf emoji). 

The Chiefs haven’t officially decided if they are going to rest their starters, but given that they have clinched the AFC West and have no shot at moving up in the seeding (they are locked in at number three, regardless of what happens this week), there is little chance that Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs' starters (Kelce, Pacheco, etc.) play much more than a few drives in this game. 

So what does that mean for betting and fantasy? Expect to see more names like Noah Gray and Richie James for the Chiefs. RB La'Mical Perine could get a lot of run as well considering the Chiefs' RB room has been banged up of late, with all three of their starters (Edwards-Helaire, Pacheco, and McKinnon) having nursed injuries over the last month. 

Don’t expect a ton of points. The total in this game has moved down to 36.0 and is even sitting at 35.5 in spots. The Chargers' offense only managed 9 points last week against a very mediocre Broncos defense and will likely again be without WR Keenen Allen (heel), who has little to no incentive to play in this game. The Chargers would love to run the ball a lot given the sorry state of their WR room, but their RBs could only manage 3.03 yards per carry against one of the worst rush defenses in the league last week, which tells you the state of their offense. 

Austin Ekeler, who does seem likely to have a full workload in this game (unless injury or a coaching decision comes out later this week), would be in a good spot given that he’ll likely be facing backup defensive linemen for most of the game. He’s gone for over 45 yards rushing in three of his last four starts, and if his opening prop numbers come out below that target, he could be a good over bet. 

Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Easton Stick hasn’t been terrible for what he’s been given to work with but did only manage 5.78 yards per attempt last week. He’s rushed 12 times over the last two games and figures to be in a spot to use his legs once again to help move the chains. His rushing prop has gone up over the last couple of weeks, but if his total stays under 20.0 yards, he’ll likely have a great shot at hitting his over in this category once again. 

The line in this game is sitting around +3.0 at most sportsbooks, who are anticipating that the Chiefs sit most of their starters. Even if that happens, I'd still expect Andy Reid, who is a players' coach through and through, to give some of his best players shots at hitting their incentives. DT Chris Jones needs just 0.5 sacks to activate a $1.25M bonus, and Travis Kelce (16), Rashee Rice (62), and Isiah Pacheco (65) are all on the verge of clearing the 1000-yard threshold in either rushing or receiving. 

The Chiefs may be sitting their starters, but the Chargers are already playing backups at many positions and may still have to defend some of the Chiefs' best players (Jones, Rice, etc.) for a couple of drives early on. And any lead the Chiefs get against the Chargers may be good enough given the state of the Chargers' offense. 

This line could move more toward the Chargers' side if the Chiefs officially rule out Mahomes, but even at +3.0 the Chiefs do look somewhat enticing. These Week 18 games are always tricky, and this one sets up as a classic preseason battle with backups dominating on both sides. You don’t have to bet on these sorts of games this week, but if you are, taking the points is rarely a poor idea.