Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons

The line for this game currently sits at 2.5, although it did briefly open at 3.5 and quickly got bet under the key number of 3.0. 

That move alone shows us how the market currently views Atlanta, and both of these teams in general. A view that can be summed up in one word—untrustworthy. Atlanta may be coming off a home win, but the way they went about defeating the Texans was unpretty at best. They also enter this game with a 3-2 record but a -13 point differential. 

What’s concerning for Falcons fans is the fact that Houston was able to shut down the Falcons' “vaunted” rushing attack, allowing just 2.77 yards per carry against to the combo of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. 

Given how one-dimensional the Falcons have been on offense to date, we’ll likely see more teams trying the “load the box” strategy and daring Atlanta to beat them through the air. To his credit, Desmond Ridder (329-1-0, 4-10-1) was up to that challenge in Week 5. He had the best statistical output game of his career against Houston, throwing for 8.9 yards per attempt and completing 75% of his passes and also accounting for two TDs (one rush, one pass). 

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) throws against the Houston Texans in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

While Washington did just get demolished by the Bears, they do present a more formidable challenge than Houston in some respects for Ridder. The Commanders rank second in pressure rate (Houston ranked 22nd) and DE Chase Young has shown a return to form of late and currently ranks fifth in overall pressures (3.0 sacks) in the league. Ridder had time against Houston but may not have the same luxury against Washington. 

Given how poorly the Commanders have defended the run this season (4.9 yards per carry allowed—26th in defensive DVOA) I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ridder’s numbers fall back down to earth, especially if Atlanta is able to secure some big plays on the ground.

If Atlanta is able to produce points in this spot, it will likely come from the feet of Robinson, who sets up well against a Washington defense that allowed 5.76 yards per carry to the Bears' RBs last week. Robinson has an early week projection of 14.3 carries and 69.1 yards on Fantasy Life this week. 

One major bright spot this year for Atlanta has been their ability to shut down big passing plays. The Falcons rank 7th in yards per pass attempt against and yards per play against (4.8). They have held every QB they have faced to date under 250 yards. While that is troubling for the prospects of downfield maestros Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, it could mean more work for Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, who provided consistent outlets for Sam Howell against the Bears. 

With CB AJ Terrell being a near-lockdown corner, you have to like the chances for another big game for Thomas, who is facing a Falcons secondary that has allowed the second-most receptions and fourth-most yards to his position. 

This is a matchup of two middling teams that both have very specific flaws. It rightfully feels tough to pick a side and we have trends with both Washington (Ron Rivera 58-43-2 ATS as an underdog) and Atlanta (Desmond Ridder 5-0 SU at home) to consider. 

Ultimately, siding with the +2.5 points in Washington is where I would lean early this week, although staying away from the spread and simply focusing on player props is likely the better option for betting.

This game feels destined to play out somewhat similar to Atlanta’s previous games against Green Bay and Houston, where the final spread was under 3.0 points and the game (both ATL wins) was decided by a last-minute FG.