Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

I need more than 500 words to talk about this game.

Actually, by all rights, this match is a short story on its own, with multiple plotlines converging on Lincoln Financial Field.

Is Dak back?

What happened to Tony Pollard?

Jalen Hurts struggles against good defenses. Can he perform against the Cowboys’ pass rush?

A.J. Brown. Grown ass man. (There’s no plotline here. That’s just a fact.)

But it’ll be tough to find another contest with more players colliding at the intersection of real and fantasy football. Using last week’s results alone, we’ve got five top-12 options between both squads. However, to me, the visiting team looks like they have the advantage.

So, let’s dive into the Cowboys’ passing attack.

Dec 26, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) catches a pass in front of Washington Football Team cornerback Bobby McCain (20) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no analysis behind keeping CeeDee Lamb in your starting lineup. He leads Dallas in every receiving opportunity metric. The only stat worth mentioning is his on-field deployment in Week 8. Against the Rams, Lamb ran a season-low 51.6% of his routes from the slot. We think of him as a power slot WR, but Dak’s top option averaged 6.53 YPRR on his routes from the perimeter. And after seeing Terry McLaurin posterize the Eagles’ DBs, Lamb will terrorize Philadelphia’s secondary regardless of where he lines up.

And Tony Pollard will be a terror, too. But mostly to fantasy managers.

In his first year with the backfield to himself, Pollard has scored two times. Even worse, they happened all the way back in Week 1. But the opportunity is there. Pollard’s one of eight RBs with over 50.0% of his team’s carries along with a 10.0+% target share. And the Cowboys have run the most red-zone plays (130). But 54 have happened with Dallas up by two scores or more. No other team has more than 25. So, with the chance for a ‘normal’ script, Pollard’s explosive nature and receiving skills will have to take over against an Eagles’ defense ranked second in run-stop win rate.

On the Philly side, the birds’ aerial attack starts with Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. Brown is one of six WRs with a target share of over 30.0% and a 40.0+% air yard share. His historic run has kept Hurts and fantasy managers happy, but his friends are also (finally) getting into the mix.

Folks with DeVonta Smith on their roster were (rightfully) wringing their hands over his week-to-week usage. He hadn’t crossed the goal line or century mark since Week 2, while Brown got all the highlights. And not much changed for Smith, but his connection with Hurts looked as strong as ever.

• Target Share: 21.9% (Weeks 1-7), 20.0%
• TPRR: 17.9%, 17.1%

Smith’s resurgence couldn’t have come at a better time. The 49ers, Cardinals, and Chargers have averaged the most yards per drive against Dallas this season. Their commonality is their diverse passing game with multiple options at each level. And with Dallas Goedert already ninth in target share amongst all TEs (18.3%), Hurts should have all he needs to stress the Cowboys’ secondary. 

And we should expect Philly’s ground game to keep Dallas occupied, too. Since news came out about Hurts’ knee bruise, D’Andre Swift’s rushing share has increased to 60.8% to go with his 9.2% target share. Accordingly, Swift sits at 11th in rushing success rate with his increased workload. The Cowboys’ front has held all but one RB to less than 75 yards, but Swift’s involvement in the passing game should make him a viable RB2 in Week 9.