Fantasy Football Strategy. Players to Avoid in 2023.

Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, but you know what’s not fun?

Sucking at fantasy football.

This brings us directly to today’s goal: Players to fade at ADP (average draft position).

To be crystal clear: I am not fully fading ANYBODY. Every skill-position player in the league could feasibly become a buy in fantasy land at the right price—and I’ve restricted qualifiers to those ranked inside the top 100 overall players since nobody needs a reminder to fade the WR65 this season.

Long story short: These players are a bit too expensive for my liking. Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP: And I am not a fan of these ADPs.

Joe Burrow, QB - Bengals

ADP: QB6 (pick 48.9)
Ian’s rank: QB6 (pick 54)

The preseason calf injury isn’t believed to be overly serious; Burrow should be good to go by Week 1 inside this ever-loaded Bengals offense.

So why have I not made a habit of drafting the 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick throughout the summer? Mostly because Burrow is being grouped in with the position’s elite dual-threat talents (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) and is being priced quite a bit ahead of more similar archetypes like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

Hard agree that Burrow has achieved more than Herbert and Lawrence during their respective careers; just realize even a slight limitation in the rushing department could make it difficult to replicate last year’s rather solid 75-257-5 rushing line. That could be the difference in Burrow achieving his 2022 QB4 finish in fantasy points per game, or 2021’s QB10 mark.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) walks back to the line in the fourth quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bengals won 27-10 to advance to the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 116

Ultimately, my problem with using a late-fourth or early-fifth round pick on Burrow comes down to the opportunity cost more than anything else. He warrants the sixth-place selection at the position, but drafting him means passing up on borderline WR2s, top-16 RBs, and TEs not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.

There’s a chance Burrow is being priced a bit too high relative to the position’s elite dual-threat talents, who have raised the position’s ADP floor higher than we’ve seen in recent years.

2023 QB6 overall ADP: 45
2022: 59
2021: 63
2020: 71
2019: 78

It’d be shocking if Burrow doesn’t put together another QB1 finish, but I’ve been far happier with rosters that waited for guys like Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith among others thanks to their drastically reduced cost and at least somewhat similar best-case upside.

Najee Harris, RB - Steelers

ADP: RB13 (pick 40.3)
Ian’s rank: RB16 (48)

I’ve drafted Jaylen Warren more than any other RB this year thanks to his high-end handcuff upside inside an offense that has historically been willing to leave one featured RB on the field.

This naturally raises the question: Why would I accordingly not be down to simply target the locked-in starter inside said offense?

Answer: Because Warren did enough in 2022 to turn Harris into far more of a bell-cow option as opposed to the every-down workhorse we saw in 2021:

2022: 14.9 expected PPR points per game (RB12)
2021: 19.7 (RB2)

This difference in opportunity dropped Harris from the RB7 to RB19 in PPR points per game; his inefficiency in both the run and pass game was far tougher to manage in 2022 without a legit every-down role.

Consider: Seven of Harris’ 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

The whole “Najee got a lot better after getting a steel plate removed from his cleat” storyline wasn’t true in terms of creating explosive plays, while the idea that Warren was only more efficient because defenses didn’t load the box the same way is also false.

Harris can make me look stupid by:

Presenting newfound elite efficiency behind an admittedly improved Steelers offensive line
Holding off Warren and seizing a more featured role (first-team preseason usage in Week 1 wasn’t a good start)
Getting a bit more lucky along the goal line (was stopped at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive a league-high seven times last year)

Anything is possible—but I don’t like the idea of spending a late third or early fourth-round pick to find out! This is especially true when similar “inefficient RB in a likely bad offense with a big workload” archetypes like Cam Akers, James Conner, and Rachaad White are available so much later in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

You can opt for these cheaper options on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE below!

Aaron Jones, RB - Packers

ADP: RB16 (pick 51.6)
Ian’s rank: RB17 (pick 56)

Jones was one of the NFL’s most efficient rushing RBs last season, ripping off top-10 marks in PFF rushing grade (90.7, No. 2 among 33 qualified RBs), yards per carry (5.2, No. 1), yards after contact per carry (3.2, No. 10), and PFF’s Elusive Rating (71.4, No. 8).

Of course, A-aron needed to make the most out of his opportunities in order to make up for a less-than-ideal workload. Last year Jones finished as just the RB17 in expected PPR points per game.

He led the way over teammate A.J. Dillon in rush attempts (213 vs. 186) and targets (72 vs. 43), but neither discrepancy was big enough to warrant constantly firing up Jones as the top-10 talent that his underlying per-touch numbers said he was.

Dec 4, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs the ball as Chicago Bears defensive back DeAndre Houston-Carson (36) pursues on defense in the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Further complicating matters:

A minor, if not major, offensive downgrade should be expected with Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers.
Jones joins Derrick Henry as the position’s two high-priced RBs who will be at least 29 years old by the end of 2023—historically this is the age cliff to worry about at the position.

This combination of less-than-ideal volume inside a descending offense for an aging RB simply isn’t something I want to make a habit of attacking at the Round 4-5 turn.

At this point I’d rather take soon-to-be similarly-priced pass-down backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall ahead of Jones thanks to their superior youth and potential for better overall offensive environments. Jones is also going alongside top-30 WRs like Diontae Johnson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who I also prefer at cost.

Miles Sanders, RB - Panthers

ADP: RB19 (pick 66.1)
Ian’s rank: RB23 (pick 75)

Determining whether or not Sanders gets a true three-down role depends on which offseason quote you want to use:

Head coach Frank Reich and general manager Scott Fitterer spoke to Sanders about getting him more involved in the passing game like he was back in 2019.
In February: Duce Staley himself said he believes in using three RBs and noted the position is like being “in a car wreck.”

It’s true: Sanders was a great pass-catcher back in 2019…the problem is that he’s been really bad ever since:

2022: 35.9 PFF receiving grade (47th among 47 qualified RBs), 0.29 yards per route run (47th)
2021: 67.1 (21st), 0.81 (tied for 47th)
2020: 37.0 (44th), 0.67 (40th)
2019: 75.7 (13th), 1.61 (11th)

Yes, transitioning to a dual-threat QB like Jalen Hurts didn’t help matters. Also yes, fifth-rounder Kenneth Gainwell emerged as the lead pass-down back anyway and even worked ahead of Sanders in the Super Bowl.

Kudos to the Panthers for opening up some nice lanes for D’Onta Foreman and company last season, but going from PFF’s single-best offensive line ahead of 2023 to their 16th-ranked unit is still objectively a downgrade.

Be careful about simply assuming that high-priced free agents who change teams magically work out every time.

Similar to Najee Harris, I struggle to go out of my way to draft a potentially inefficient RB inside of a likely bad offense based purely on projected volume when that same archetype is available at a cheaper cost in the form of Cam Akers, James Conner, and Rachaad White.

I also don’t blame anyone for not going out of your way for these backs in the first place—my favorite draft strategy for 2023 prefers getting one or two top talents at the position inside the top three rounds and largely waiting for the RB3 tier of guys after that.

Chris Olave, WR - Saints

ADP: WR12 (pick 19.6)
Ian’s rank: WR14 (24)

Look, I get it. Olave was incredibly efficient as a rookie, averaging the fifth-most yards per route run by a rookie receiver over the past 10 years:

2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
2022 Olave (2.42)

Highlights included Olave making Jalen Ramsey a burn victim and plenty of route-running goodness.

And yet, Olave's 72-1,042-4 receiving line (in 15 games) “only” produced WR26 status in PPR points per game.

Olave is expected to make one of the bigger 2023 leaps of any WR with a top-24 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.

Of course, that list is full of rising second-year WRs. The position does typically produce far more second-year fantasy studs than rookies.

Still, last season’s efficient performance probably (?) can’t get that much better, and it’s not a given that top-tier volume is on the way should Michael Thomas stay healthy for a change. The Saints were a bottom-seven bad-injury luck offense last season in terms of adjusted games lost.

It’s also not a complete given that Derek Carr is a massive upgrade over Andy Dalton. Metrics like adjusted yards per attempt (7.5 vs. 6.7), adjusted completion rate (76.8% vs. 70.8%), and PFF passing grade (81.0 vs. 65.4) paint the picture of Dalton being a superior signal-caller to Carr in 2022, although the latter QB did hold the lead in EPA per dropback (0.07 vs. 0.02).

Nov 27, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) gestures after making a play against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Drafting Olave in Round 2 can mean passing up upside RB1s like Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard, who would be viable Round 1 options in plenty of years. I’m also more confident in passing games like the Dolphins and Bengals than the Saints when considering the possibility that this passing game will be more of a two-man show in 2023.

Drake London, WR - Falcons

ADP: WR24 (pick 45.1)
Ian’s rank: WR27 (53)

London experienced a mini breakout down the stretch of 2022, ripping off 6-95-0, 7-70-0, 7-96-0, 5-47-0 and 6-120-0 receiving lines during the final five weeks of the season.

Some of the route-running and YAC moves that London put on tape were SCARY for a man standing 6-feet-4 and weighing 213 pounds.

Twenty-two years old in July, it’d make sense if the 2022 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick’s late-season accession is the sign of more to come.

The gargantuan-sized problem in the room: TE Kyle Pitts was sidelined during the final six weeks of 2022, undoubtedly helping London obtain a more consistent target share inside the NFL’s single most run-heavy offense.

Overall, London had just one game with eight-plus targets in Weeks 1 to 11 with Pitts active vs. five such performances during the final six weeks after. Their workloads were nearly identical when both were healthy.

Desmond Ridder starting the final four weeks of the season also played into this volume equation; just realize his small sample of work was actually worse than what Marcus Mariota put together during the first three months of the year.

Among 49 qualified QBs:

Adjusted completion percentage: Mariota (67.3%, 46th), Ridder (68.5%, 45th)
From a clean pocket: Mariota (72%, 44th), Ridder (66.5%, 48th)
On deep passes (20-plus yards): Mariota (27.1%, 44th), Ridder (20%, 48th)

Last year’s offense was the second-most run-heavy group in pass rate over expected since 2016…and they just drafted allegedly generational RB Bijan Robinson with the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick.

Maybe London is simply too good to let a little thing like volume hold him back, but I struggle to pay the premium on him when someone with similar issues like Michael Pittman is going two-and-a-half rounds later.

Brandin Cooks, WR - Cowboys

ADP: WR42 (pick 84.3)
Ian’s rank: WR49 (111)

Cooks has had a great nine-year career, ripping off six seasons with 1,000-plus yards while jumping around on the Saints, Patriots, Rams, and Texans over the years.

Last season’s 57-699-3 disappointment certainly had something to do with the Texans’ dreadful situation under center, although that didn’t stop Cooks from posting a 90-1,037-6 receiving line back in 2021.

Thirty years old in September, this is usually about the time that NFL WRs start to fade a bit.

Of course, Cooks doesn’t need to post top-12 numbers in order to beat his WR4 valuation, but there’s far more target competition on the table in the form of alpha No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb…and maybe even presumed No. 3 WR Michael Gallup.

Consider:

Jerry Jones and company thought enough of Gallup to hand him a five-year, $57.5 million contract before last season’s disappointing campaign.
Gallup literally was not able to walk just a few months before last season. Doesn’t sound ideal!
It wasn’t THAT long ago that Gallup was making some seriously impressive plays as one of Dak’s go-to targets.

I’d much rather attack similarly-priced and far more youthful complementary WRs who are also in good passing attacks like Zay Flowers, Elijah Moore, and Treylon Burks over the Cowboys’ rising 10th-year veteran.

Dallas Goedert, TE - Eagles

ADP: TE7 (pick 77)
Ian’s rank: TE7 (88)

You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of TEs who have been more efficient than Goedert on a per-route basis since he took over the full-time role from Zach Ertz. His yearly marks in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade are as follows:

2022: 81.7 PFF receiving grade (No. 4), 1.82 yards per route run (No. 4)
2021: 90.5 (No. 3), 2.34 (No. 2)
2020: 76.4 (No. 11), 1.63 (No. 9)
2019: 78.9 (No. 9), 1.64 (No. 16)
2018: 70.5 (No. 15), 1.44 (No. 17)

However, Goedert remains the clear-cut No. 3 pass-game option inside an offense that also regularly has a true identity in the run game. The latter point holds especially true near the goal line: Goedert only has four total end zone targets over the past two seasons (h/t Adam Pfeifer).

I’d much rather draft potential No. 1 pass-game options in their own offense like Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts at a similar price tag as Goedert, who is also rather inexplicably going a full two-plus rounds ahead of fellow talented TEs with target competition like David Njoku and Pat Freiermuth.