Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

At this point in the season, the one thing that the Bears franchise can hang their hat on is the fact they may have absolutely fleeced the Panthers, who paid them a king’s ransom for the right to draft Bryce Young. Sure, the Bears likely should have held onto the pick and taken CJ Stroud, but there is a strong likelihood that at least half the teams in the league would have taken Young, just like Carolina. 

Young enters this game averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt (dead last among starting QBs who have played more than 3 games) and with a QBR of just 29.5. In EPA per play standings just two QBs rank below him—Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson. In short, it’s been bad, and while you can make excuses about the lack of receiving talent (true to an extent) and play calling, the bottom line is that less-heralded young QBs like Sam Howell and Will Levis have overcome similar issues and looked far more competent to date. 

For this week, Young faces a Bears defense that is 26th in yards per pass attempt against and has allowed the most passing TDs in the league (19), while gaining just 6 INTs to date. This SHOULD be a spot where Young can find some rhythm and potentially put up a multiple-TD game. The Bears are also last in pressure rate, and Young was swallowed up by a solid defensive line in Indianapolis, as he took four sacks and threw a pick-six that essentially ended the game. 

Nov 5, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks for a receiver during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

If Young does get on track this week (big if), then this may also finally be the spot where Jonathan Mingo breaks free as well. I have been tracking Mingo all season, and while it’s been frustrating to watch, the Panthers are committed to having him develop. Mingo has a 98% route rate over the last two games, and while he only managed to convert on one of four targets last week, his nine targets over the last two games is second only to Adam Thielen. With the Bears' top corner Jaylen Johnson likely shadowing Thielen, Mingo does make sense to target here in DFS and potentially props. 

The Bears' QB for this Thursday is still undecided. Right now, the line has moved to Carolina +3.5, so it does feel like the market may be pricing in a Justin Fields return. There is also the fact that Tyson Bagent (220-2-3, 8-70) has been serviceable as a fill-in. Bagent’s three INTs came against one of the toughest pass defenses in the league last week (so he gets a small pass), but he was able to push the ball downfield a bit more last week, averaging 7.33 yards per attempt. 

One player who hasn’t benefited from Bagent being under center is DJ Moore, who has been held under 60 yards in every game Bagent has started. Fields was forcing the ball more to Moore, who had 8 catches in the last two games Fields started, but Bagent has spread the ball around. Darnell Mooney went for a season-high 5-82 last week, and TE Cole Kmet has 16 catches and two TDs over the last two weeks. 

Mooney may be a good anytime TD target this week IF Bagent starts, but do expect the Bears to run the ball a ton in this spot, regardless. The Panthers are 25th in yards per rush attempt against (4.4), making this a spot where we’re likely to see D’Onta Foreman (20-83 last week) take a big workload again. 

It’s hard to pick a side given the uncertainty at QB right now with Chicago. Carolina is the worst ATS team in the league (1-6-1), but Chicago (3-5-1) is right behind them. Despite a tough go last week, the Panthers' defense has come on of late, and it’s important to note that last week the Panthers' offense gifted the Colts seven points plus lots of short fields. Even a moderately better performance by Young and crew likely keeps this game close. 

Neither team here is inspiring, but the +3.5 with Carolina is the side to lean on at the moment given the short week of prep, which favors the team without the QB drama.