Patriots at Broncos

The Broncos' convoy hit a roadblock last week when they got smashed on the road 42-17 by Detroit. As a result, they now sit at 7-7 and trail four other 8-6 teams in the race for the last two playoff spots. 

On top of having a mediocre offensive output, the Broncos' rush defense once again got exposed by Detroit, whose RBs rushed for 6.85 YPC and 185 total yards. Denver also allowed Jared Goff to throw for a career-high 5 TD passes, but most of the yards came on the ground for the Lions, who dominated when they had the ball. 

The Patriots aren’t the Lions obviously, but they could be getting RB Rhamondre Stevenson back this week, who has missed a couple of games with an ankle sprain. If Stevenson can go, it would at least give the Patriots a shot at replicating some of the Lions' success against Denver who ranks 30th in success rate vs the run. 

If Stevenson can’t go, expect a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott once again. Elliott has taken 33 carries over his last two games but only managed to produce a meager 2.81 yards per carry. While Elliott hasn’t looked great, a lot of the issues have to do with the Patriots O-line, who had trouble making room for the more spry Stevenson early in the season as well. Elliott may not be efficient, but he’ll be likely to get volume in this game simply because of how weak Denver is against the run. Elliott will be an above-average fantasy start, and both his total carries and rushing yards may make for good over-targets in this situation as well. 

Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) returns the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots didn’t have Juju Smith-Schuster last week, but they did welcome back DeVante Parker and rookie Demario Douglas, who played as the primary WRs for Baily Zappe and both saw five targets each. 

Parker will likely draw Patrick Surtain in coverage this week, and the Patriots should utilize the middle of the field more with both Douglas and TE Hunter Henry. Henry (knee) posted a 7-66-1 line last week but also left the game early. If he can’t go, it could be a good place to spot-start Mike Gesicki in deep fantasy leagues or daily fantasy lineups. Denver has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season and allowed Sam LaPorta to go for three receiving TDs last week. Gesicki’s TD prop will be of high interest if Henry sits. 

As for Denver, their run game has stalled of late and they’ll have a hard time getting it going against New England, whose defense ranks first in success rate against the run. That’s a little worrisome for Denver in this game as Russell Wilson could only complete 56% of his passes and threw for just 6.96 yards per attempt against a poor pass defense in Detroit. After cracking the 300-yard mark in Weeks 2 and 3, Wilson has only gone for more than 250 yards in a game once the rest of the season. 

Denver’s best WR this season, Courtland Sutton, was finally held out of the end zone last week but still managed a 5 rec., 71-yard day. The Broncos may need to target his big body in the red zone more in this spot given how tough New England is against the run. 

I can’t say I love this spot for Denver, whose comeback took a pretty big hit last week. The Patriots have looked far more chipper since switching to Zappe at QB, who completed 74% of his passes against a tough Chiefs secondary. The Broncos have now lost two of their last three games and face a bad stylistic matchup given how much they love to run the ball on early downs (6th in run rate). 

With the line now hitting 7.0 in spots, I think taking the points with the Patriots makes sense. Sutton may make some big plays to get Denver the win, but the Broncos' defense is likely to cede enough big plays of their own to keep this within a converted TD.