Saints at Browns (-3.0) – 32.5 total

This game has “you must be desperate to come to me” vibes attached to it. The weather outside will be more than frightful without much delight on the field. Let’s look at where things stand for the Saints.

Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) won’t make the trip to Cleveland. Olave, on his own, accounts for 41.0% of the team’s air yards over their last four games. Combined with Landry, the duo has earned 42 of Andy Dalton’s 99 attempts. Let’s assume the Saints coaching staff won’t criminally underuse Alvin Kamara, but New Orleans has a couple of other options.

If you went up against Evan Engram on Thursday, Taysom Hill looks like a way to even the odds. Only Kamara has more designed rushing attempts since Week 11. Additionally, Hill has at least one throw, rush, and target in the red zone. Lamar Jackson is the only mobile passer to face the Browns, and he tagged them for 59 yards. Hill is the home-run play, but the Saints' other tight end can also provide support.

Juwan Johnson missed Week 13 and returned last week to lead the team in targets. He also had two red-zone looks, and his 40.0% TPRR was second among all tight ends on the week. His potential usage increase, at worst, boosts his floor, making him a viable streaming option if needed.

We should expect the weather conditions to impact Cleveland’s passing attack adversely, but Deshaun Watson was already doing it himself. Since his return, he’s 21st in EPA per play and 24th in CPOE. Watson has connected on one throw of 20 air yards or more, and the offense has averaged 27.5 yards per drive after sitting at 34.6 for most of the season. As a result, the rest of the squad has suffered.

Amari Cooper is still on top regarding targets, but Watson’s volatility drops him into the low-end WR2 ranks, with Donovan Peoples-Jones a tier below. The Saints are 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, with a potential for their top corner to be back on the field. If Cleveland expects to win this game, they’ll need to do it the old-fashioned way.

Nick Chubb gave us a scare to start the week with two missed practices. However, he got in a limited session to close out the week and will play on Saturday. We just watched the Falcons drop 191 yards on the ground between Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson against the Saints in Week 16. With New Orleans ranking 26th in rushing EPA allowed over the last month, Chubb is the only trustworthy option for season-long managers, given the weather conditions.