New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

At the start of last week, if you looked at this game on the schedule you likely would have thought that this would have been a laugher, and an easy spot for a big Saints win. That was back before the Vikings traded for Joshua Dobbs, who orchestrated a comeback for the ages against Atlanta when he came in in relief of Jaren Hall (concussion). 

That win came against Atlanta, though—whose defense has regressed monumentally the last few weeks—and this week Dobbs faces a different test against one of the best secondaries in the league in New Orleans. The Saints may have failed to cover last week, but they picked off Tyson Bagent three times and will face a Vikings team who is horrendous at running the football. Minnesota ranks 27th in yards per rush and 22nd in big play runs (10+ yards). 

Dobbs's ability to run the ball (7-66-1 last week) could be a huge benefit for them in this regard going forward, especially since they just lost arguably their most explosive runner in Cam Akers (Achilles).  The Saints allowed Tyson Bagent to rush for 70 yards last week and have allowed a QB to rush for more than 30 yards five times already this year. 

TJ Hockenson (7-69) led the Vikings in receiving again against Atlanta but faces a good coverage team here in the Saints who have allowed the sixth fewest yards to opposing TEs. If Minnesota can’t get more pivotal runs from Dobbs, it could be a long day for their offense. 

The Saints' offense had a nice day against the Bears, but it was almost all a result of Taysom Hill, who caught a TD pass, rushed the ball 11 times for 52 yards, and threw a TD pass. The Saints have scored 62 points since upping Hill’s usage two games ago but do face a good rush defense in Minnesota, who is fifth in yards per rush attempt against. The Saints have caught a couple of bad defenses off guard with Hill’s usage but will likely need the arm of Derek Carr to do more of the heavy lifting in this spot. 

Nov 5, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) rushes with the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Carr has completed over 70% of his passes in his last two games, but that came against low pressure defenses in the Colts and Bears. Minnesota blitzes more than any other team in the league (51.3%) (but is just average in pressure rate). There will be one-on-one opportunities in this game for both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to break out, and breaking some explosive plays feels like it will be paramount for the Saints to have success. 

Despite this being a tough spot for Minnesota, who is coming off a big win, the Saints are just 2-6-1 ATS this year and Derek Carr is just 18-35-2 ATS for his career now (the worst record of any QB over the last 20 years as a favorite). If this game moves to a pick’em, the Saints would become more desirable as their defense has been great at keeping them in games even when their offense has struggled, and Dobbs (despite being a hero last week) is still a limited passer going up against a tough secondary. 

One thing I do like targeting this week in betting is the Saints' passing offense for some overs. Carr has done well against weaker passing defenses, going for 300+ yards against TEN, IND, and HOU. Minnesota has been better this year in coverage but still profiles as a funnel to the pass defense who allowed Taylor Heinicke to throw for 268 yards and over 7.0 yards per attempt in Atlanta’s pop-gun passing offense. The Saints push the ball downfield far more and Carr, Olave, and Shaheed should pile up the yards in this spot.