Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

The Seahawks come in reeling. They’ve lost two divisional games in a row with their last outing being a spanking at home, courtesy of the juggernaut 49ers. While it has been a bleak couple weeks to be a Seahawks fan, this team is still in the playoff race and benefited from the Vikings' meltdown on Monday Night, who now sit in the seventh seed (6-6) and a half-game back of the 6th seeded and 6-5 Seahawks. 

The line in this game opened at around -7.5 and, predictably, got bet up into the 9.0-9.5 range where it sits as of writing. The Cowboys' tendency to blow out weaker opponents this year certainly has something to do with the move. In games where the Cowboys have been favorites in 2023, they are 8-1 ATS this season with their only misstep coming against another NFC West opponent in the Cardinals back in Week 3. The Cowboys have also managed an insane +196 point differential in those 9 games. 

Before you go out and put it all on Dallas, though, consider a few notes about their opponents. Those 8 wins have come against teams like the Giants (x2), Patriots, Jets, Panthers, and Commanders. The only teams they have faced with winning records this year were the Eagles and 49ers (both losses). They also played a very close 20-17 game with a Chargers team in Week 6 who was 2-2 at the time. 

Seattle has had its issues this season, but they don’t belong in the group with New York, Carolina, et al. One area of concern for the Seahawks on defense is against the rush, where they are now just 20th in yards per rush attempt against on the season. LB Leonard Williams (questionable) missed practice early this week for Seattle, and his absence would be a big one considering they are facing Tony Pollard this week, who, after a slow start, is now 3rd in explosive run rate on the season and 5th in yards after contact. 

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates throwing a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Even if the Seahawks can stuff Pollard, they’ll have to deal with Dak Prescott, who is entering the MVP conversation and in the midst of a smoking-hot stretch of football. Prescott has amassed an incredible 17-1 TD to INT ratio over the last five games, but will take on a Seahawks secondary this week that has talented corners and has allowed under 7.0 yards per attempt in their last two games. 

For Seattle, they’ll need to find ways to move the ball through the air, something they could not do effectively against the 49ers. Dallas is a solid run-stopping unit, and Seattle looks likely to be without their most explosive back in Kenneth Walker (oblique), who didn’t practice to start this short week. Seattle certainly has the weapons to hurt Dallas through the air, but they’ll have to give Geno Smith more time. Smith averaged just 6.66 yards per attempt against the 49ers and was sacked six times in that game. 

This game comes down to the QBs. Can Dak Prescott overcome an above-average secondary, something he failed miserably at when facing the 49ers earlier in the season? And can Seattle give Geno Smith protection so he can use their all-star receiving core to hurt Dallas, who has a talented but somewhat thin secondary after losing Trevon Diggs early in the year?

Given the way Prescott has played this season, it’s highly probable that the Cowboys come out with the win. But I do expect the Seahawks to at least slow him down somewhat and make this a close game.

The under 46.5 points has some appeal this week as a result. The Seahawks are 4-1 to the under as the away team with the only “road over” on their docket being their Week 2 video game comeback win against the Lions.  Dallas played a close, low-scoring game against the Chargers, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the same kind of game broke out here in what is a massive contest for Seattle’s playoff hopes.