Seahawks (-7.0) at Rams – 40.5 total

My how the mighty have fallen. It feels like forever ago that the Rams were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Their season as defending champs got off to a dreadful start, getting embarrassed by the Bills on Thursday Night Football, and it’s only gotten worse from there. They’ve been all but eliminated from playoff contention after winning just three of their first 11 games, and now they’re listed as seven-point home underdogs against the Seahawks. I can’t imagine there are many previous instances of defending Super Bowl champs being dogs by a full touchdown at home.

The Rams remain extremely banged up on offense. Cooper Kupp is currently on Injured Reserve, and with the team struggling, it’s hard to imagine him playing again this season. Matthew Stafford also missed last week’s contest, and head coach Sean McVay told reporters that it’s “safe to say” he won’t suit up again in Week 13.

That leaves Bryce Perkins as the likely starter versus the Seahawks, and he looked overmatched last week against the Chiefs. Kansas City entered that contest 22nd in defensive DVOA, but they were able to limit the Rams to just 198 yards of total offense. Perkins completed just 13 of 23 passes for 100 yards, and he had two interceptions. Those are obviously terrible numbers, but he’s getting virtually no help from his pass-catchers. With Allen Robinson joining Kupp on the sidelines, the Rams receiving corps looks more fit for the preseason than the regular season.

That said, do the Rams really deserve to be this big of an underdog against Seattle? Some of the betting trends would suggest they do. The Rams have failed to cover the spread by an average of 7.5 points per game this season, which is the worst mark in the league. They’re 0-5 this season against teams with winning records, losing by an average of 16.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Geno Smith is 11-5 against the spread in his last 16 starts.

Geno has undoubtedly been one of the most pleasant surprises of the year. He’s gone from a career backup to someone who deserves consideration for the bottom of the MVP ballot. He ranks eighth at the position in Pro Football Focus grade, and he’s outperformed his predecessor Russell Wilson by a wide margin.

The Rams’ defense still has some blue chippers in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they’ve dipped to just 16th in defensive DVOA. They’ve been particularly bad against the run, which does not bode well for a matchup with Rookie of the Year favorite Kenneth Walker III. Walker has flourished since taking over as the team’s starter, racking up eight touchdowns in his past six games.

However, the sharps still think this might be too many points. The Rams have received 61% of the spread dollars on just 40% of the bets, so they think this game might be a bit closer than expected.