Steelers at Bills 

The Steelers backdoored their way into the playoffs after the Titans (who were +4.5 underdogs last week) managed to upset the Jaguars. For the Steelers, just being in the playoffs at this point must feel surreal to an extent. They ended the year with a -20 point differential—which is by far the worst among all playoff teams—and are just 23rd in EPA per play on offense and 22nd in yards per play. 

To top things off, last week the Steelers lost their heart and soul on defense, edge rusher TJ Watt, who led the league in sacks. Now they head into Buffalo as +10.0 underdogs and will be facing a Bills team that has won five in a row and looks to be peaking at the exact right time. 

On the surface, the Steelers have no shot. Josh Allen (despite his turnovers) is coming off one of his best games of the year and ended the season with 44 total TDs, while the Bills' defense has been a solid unit down the stretch and are 5th in EPA per dropback since Week 12. 

However, Mother Nature may have thrown the Steelers a bone. The weather in this game looks nasty. Highs are set to be around 25 F and winds may get as high as 30mph at some points. In short, it’s going to be very windy and very cold, which means passing the ball will be extremely difficult. That is fantastic news for the Steelers, who would prefer to keep this game as ground-based and unexciting as possible. 

The Bills are just 26th in rush EPA on defense since Week 12 and allowed 4.6 yards per carry against in the regular season—the fifth-worst mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Steelers' rushing attack has looked a lot more promising of late. They’ve rushed for over 140 yards in two straight games and are sixth in success rate via the run since Week 14. 

Jan 6, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) rushes as Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (92) defends during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Najee Harris, who sometimes gets ridiculed for his slow, plodding running style, is perfect for these kinds of conditions and has seemingly found his stride exactly when the Steelers have needed him to, scoring four times in the last three games. Harris ended the year tied for third among all RBs with eight runs of 20+ yards. His anytime TD props for the game (which are still hovering around +200 or bigger) likely offer some value this week and would certainly be a good bet to include in any same-game parlay that includes a Steelers win or cover. 

While the conditions are ideal for Pittsburgh, winning this game will still not be easy. The Bills have played well of late and Josh Allen—15 rushing TDs on the year—will almost certainly find the going easier without TJ Watt in the lineup for Pittsburgh (Watt was ruled out on Tuesday by the Steelers). The Bills also have a good possession receiver in Dalton Kincaid, who went for 84 yards in the biggest game of the season for Buffalo and will likely be pivotal for them once again given the conditions. 

The total in this game opened above 40 but has plummeted down to 35 at some sportsbooks. I’m not sure if I would bet the under now that the number has fallen so much, but certainly, if the weather forecast holds, I wouldn’t hesitate to lean that way Friday night. 

As for the spread, it’s gross but 10 points is a huge amount to give Pittsburgh in this spot. There is little doubt that the Bills are the better team, but the conditions are going to push this game into the Steelers' favor, who will likely convert enough first downs on the ground to keep this game close. Mike Tomlin’s playoff W-L record isn’t great, but he’s great at covering in these kinds of spots, with a career 55-35-4 ATS record as the underdog (regular season and playoffs). 

Pittsburgh may not pull off the upset, but I expect the combo of the Steelers' run game and the weather to keep this game low-scoring and within a TD, up until the final whistle.