Best Bets for Team USA vs. Serbia: Expect an offensive eruption from Team USA

The United States men’s basketball team officially begins its Olympic season on Sunday. They’ll start with a bang, taking on a Serbia squad led by three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. It’s easily the biggest challenge they’ll face in pool play, with the two teams widely expected to advance to the knockout stages.

These two squads did meet in the run-up to the Olympics, with the Americans dismantling Serbia 105-79. That said, the game was played on American soil, and it’s hard to read too much into the USA's victory.

Can the Americans cruise to another easy victory, or will Serbia bounce back? Let’s dive into everything you need to know and my favorite bets for Team USA vs. Serbia on Sunday.

Team USA vs Serbia Best Bets

Team USA -13.0 (-108; DraftKings)

I’m always hesitant to back the USA in international competitions, regardless of sport. On American sportsbooks, it’s natural for the home squad to become overpriced. No American wants to bet against their home country at the Olympics, so the books can inflate the line by a point or two.

Still, I think the US matches up incredibly well with this Serbia squad.

Serbia might have the best player on the planet, but Jokic has very little in terms of supporting talent. Bogdan Bogdanovic was their leading scorer in their two exhibition contests (17.5 points per game), and while he’s a legit NBA player, he’s never been a threat to make an All-Star team. Vasilije Micic led the team in assists, and he struggled to find minutes for the worst team in the league.

Much like the Nuggets, Serbia is going to run everything through Jokic. There’s no denying how impactful that strategy can be–Jokic averaged 26.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game for the Nuggets this season–but he’s not facing some random NBA squad on Sunday. He’ll be taking on the best big men from the best basketball nation in the world… and Joel Embiid.

The trio of Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo should be able to keep Jokic in check. No one can stop him completely, but that’s a hell of a lineup to throw at anyone. Davis and Adebayo are both DPOY-level defenders, while Embiid has the size and strength to hold his own. The trio combined to limit Jokic to 6-19 shooting in their exhibition contest, and if Jokic doesn’t improve significantly on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine the result being much different.

On the other side, Serbia has little chance against the American offense. LeBron James and Steph Curry were a combined 13-20 against Serbia in their tune-up, while Adebayo and Anthony Edwards each chipped in at least 16 points. There are simply too many weapons to slow down this offense, particularly without any elite defensive wings. I like the US to approach 100 points once again, which should be enough to cover the spread.

Other Bets For USA vs. Serbia

Bam Adebayo Over 6.5 points (-120; DraftKings)

Adebayo’s role has decreased slightly since the start of the exhibitions. He played 18.6 minutes in the team’s first tune-up game, but that figure decreased to just 14 in the win over Germany. However, Germany and South Sudan lack the same interior presence as Serbia, and Adebayo should be one of the team’s top answers for Jokic. I’m expecting him to play a solid role off the bench.

Even if he does play less than 15 minutes, Adebayo still has the potential to go over 6.5 points. He’s not one of the team’s top offensive options, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a capable scorer. He shot over 52% for the Heat during the NBA season, and he even displayed range out to the 3-point line.

Ultimately, his defense should get him on the floor, and he has the offensive game to take advantage.

Steph Curry Over 2.5 3-pointers (-145; DraftKings)

In Team USA’s three tune-up games, Curry has attempted seven, nine, and nine 3-pointers. I see no reason why that would change in the Olympics, which makes this line simply too low. If he averages nine 3-point attempts per game, he doesn’t even need to shoot 40% to hit the over on 2.5.

Curry is the greatest shooter in basketball history, and he’s playing with the greatest set of teammates he’s ever had. Opposing defenses can’t focus on him the same way they do when they’re facing the Warriors. Expect Curry to make it rain.