Early 2026 NFL MVP Bets and Odds: Josh Allen Leads The Field, Patrick Mahomes Is A Fade

If you’re betting the NFL MVP, you’re not just picking the best player—you’re betting history.

And history is loud.

With rare exception, this is a quarterback award. The market reflects it, the voters reinforce it and every season drives the point home.

In 2025, Christian McCaffrey turned in one of the most productive non-QB seasons in recent memory and barely cracked the top four in voting.

A quarterback has now won MVP in 13 straight seasons.

Since 2000, just four running back outliers:

Marshall Faulk (2000)
Shaun Alexander (2005)
LaDainian Tomlinson (2006)
Adrian Peterson (2012)

Wide receivers? Tight ends? Never happened. You’ve got better historical odds betting a kicker.

Four decades ago, linebacker Lawrence Taylor was celebrated as league MVP. That’s the last time a position other than QB or RB was honored.

So, yes, you can bet on a non-QB. You can also light your money on fire. And the books know it.

At DraftKings, the top 27 players on the MVP board are quarterbacks. That includes:

Two guys who may not even start, and another who’s currently unemployed.

All with shorter odds than Jahmyr Gibbs or McCaffrey.

What a world.

So how do we attack it?

The Deserving Favorites For 2026 NFL MVP

Josh Allen | QB | BUF | +550

Allen checks every box: production, narrative, consistency and voter trust.

He edged Lamar Jackson for MVP in 2024 with 40 total touchdowns, then followed it up with another top-three finish despite the Bills taking a slight step back. That’s now four straight top-five finishes.

Voters don’t just like Allen. They default to him.

Now he gets help.

Buffalo traded for DJ Moore, a proven 1,000-yard receiver who got buried in Chicago and is entering his age-29 season, and he’ll be reunited with new head coach Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator during two of Moore’s most productive seasons in Carolina.

This was already a top-five scoring offense (28.3 PPG). The Bills are positioned to reclaim the AFC East crown and contend for a Super Bowl. If that happens, Allen is the cleanest MVP bet on the board.

Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | +650

We’ve already seen this movie twice.

Jackson is one of just 11 multi-time MVP winners, unanimously selected in 2019 and nearly replicating the feat in 2023. When he’s healthy, he’s as dangerous as anyone in football.

Limited to just 13 starts in 2025, Jackson will be motivated to prove that departed coach John Harbaugh was the reason for the Ravens’ regression. As the win totals have decreased from 13 to 8 over the last three seasons, opponent point totals have risen, but the team reinforced the defense and will return its most important offensive players.

Baltimore is expected to contend again, and MVP voters love a bounce-back story tied to team success. If the Ravens win 11-12 games, Jackson will be right in the middle of this conversation again.

Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | +1000

Herbert controversially received a first-place vote for MVP last season on the way to a sixth-place finish. Why? His ability to overcome a horrendous offensive line and a lousy run game that contributed to taking a career-worst 54 sacks while passing for just 3,727 yards.

The argument now is simple: if he survived that, what happens if the environment improves?

Despite repeated playoff failures, everyone knows the raw ability is there (two seasons of 4,700+ passing yards), and Herbert has an above-average supporting cast.

If Ladd McConkey looks more like he did as a rookie, Quentin Johnston takes another step forward, Oronde Gadsden proves his freshman season was only a sign of things to come and Omarion Hampton can stay healthy, the Chargers offense will be dangerous, and Herbert will be in the top player conversation.

Value Bets For 2026 NFL MVP

Drake Maye | QB | NE | +1100

Maye nearly pulled off an MVP shocker in his first full season, finishing one first-place vote behind Matthew Stafford. Not bad for a guy with 60/1 odds entering the year.

Now comes the hard part.

The Patriots went from 4 wins to 14, benefiting from a very soft schedule. That won’t be the case this year. Aside from the usual pair of games with the Bills, the Pats will host the Broncos, Packers and Steelers, and visit the Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Jaguars and defending champion Seahawks. It’s a gauntlet.

So why bet him?

This number is fragile.

If New England can execute on its long-rumored trade with Philadelphia for A.J. Brown, Maye’s odds will immediately shorten into the single digits.

Right now, you’re betting on the possibility of the move, not just the player.

Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | +12000

This is a long shot for a reason. Running backs don’t win MVP anymore. Even historically dominant seasons from McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley have an Offensive Player of the Year ceiling.

But if you’re going to take a shot at this price, Gibbs makes sense.

With David Montgomery gone to Houston (RIP, Sonic and Knuckles), the backfield is his. Over the last two seasons, Gibbs totaled 3,700+ scrimmage yards and 38 touchdowns as Montgomery’s touches steadily declined.

And now the volume could spike, especially if new partner Isiah Pacheco’s injury woes continue.

Detroit’s offense is elite, and Gibbs has the explosiveness to produce a truly absurd statistical season.

2026 NFL MVP Bets To Fade

Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | +1000

Yes, it’s Patrick Mahomes.

No, I’m not betting him.

The two-time MVP tore his ACL in Week 15 of last season and underwent surgery in mid-December. Even on an aggressive timeline, he’s cutting it close for Week 1, and that assumes no setbacks.

Then you must consider the lack of a proper offseason or training camp. How long before he actually looks like Mahomes?

Joe Burrow tore his ACL in 2020 and returned nine months later, winning Comeback Player of the Year (the first time). The Bengals won 10 games, and Burrow led the league in completion percentage.

When Kyler Murray tore his ACL in Dec. 2022 and returned the following October, there was a clear year-to-year drop in mobility.

We’ve seen varying success stories.

Mahomes’ improvisation and movement are central to his dominance. Even a slight dip matters.

Could he still win MVP? Of course. But at this price, you’re paying for the name, not the situation.

Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | +1400

A legacy award in Year 17? Maybe, but Stafford is the reigning MVP and a worthy winner after leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns.

I won’t go full Max Kellerman and start screaming about a cliff, but at 38, regression is coming.

The Rams should be great again, and the roster has improved. Between age, natural variance and declining production from key weapons like Davante Adams, this feels like a peak rather than a baseline.

Final Thoughts on Early 2026 NFL MVP Bets and Odds

If you’re betting MVP this early, you’re not just projecting performance; you’re betting on health, storylines, team success and market movement.

That’s why:

Allen is the safest play.
Jackson is the narrative play.
Herbert is the upside swing.
Maye is the market play.
Gibbs is the lottery ticket.

Mahomes?

He’s the guy everyone will talk themselves into betting, which is often a pretty good reason not to.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Early 2026 NFL MVP Bets and Odds: Josh Allen Leads The Field, Patrick Mahomes Is A Fade