I love doing NFL mock drafts. I like creating NFL Draft big boards. I enjoyed helping to put together our 2026 NFL draft guide.

But let's be honest: That stuff is all foreplay.

If you really want to get down and dirty—I'm talking about the true degenerate stuff that would make your neighbors scared to see you outside the house while they take their post-dinner constitutional stroll around the block—then you gotta get involved in the NFL draft betting market.

I can't claim to be the world's best draft prop bettor. That said …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

Some sportsbooks have already released markets for the draft, and there are a few that stand out to me.

Let's dig in, using some data from NFL Mock Draft Database, Grinding the Mocks, my top 200 prospect big board, my most recent mock draft and my personal index of recent sharp mocks.

NFL Draft Prop Bets - 2026 Round 1 Positional Totals

Under 1.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1

• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Odds: +170
• Implied Probability: 37.0%.

This bet essentially comes down to whether QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) goes in Round 1.

ESPN's Dan Orlovosky believes that Simpson is the No. 1 QB in the class. Per Orlovsky, there's a meaningful number of NFL decision makers who agree with him.

But I'm not buying it.

Let's set aside that Simpson and Orlovsky have the same agent. I take Orlovsky at his word. 

But Simpson is No. 35 in the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board and No. 38 on my big board. He's No. 27 at Grinding the Mocks, and 52% of recent sharp mocks have him, but he's not in Round 1 of my recent mock.

Big picture: All this data suggests that he's a borderline guy for Round 1.

I think No. 16 to the Jets is the earliest he can go—but the Jets are clearly not building for this year. As I note in my recent QB situations breakdown, the Jets are playing for 2027.

Framed differently: If the Jets liked Simpson well enough to take him at No. 16, then they just would take him at No. 2. And they probably wouldn't have traded for veteran Geno Smith.

Similarly, if the Cardinals liked Simpson well enough to trade back into Round 1 to take him (they have No. 34 near the top of Round 2), then they simply would take him at No. 3—and they wouldn't have signed veteran Gardner Minshew.

The Browns won't take him at No. 6. That's simply too high—and this specific front office has already invested too much in the QB position to be able to get away with that pick. And the Brown won't take him at No. 24 … because if they invest a first-rounder in him and he fails, then the entire front office could get fired.

The Dolphins won't take him at Nos. 11 & 30. They just signed Malik Willis.

The Rams won't take him at No. 13. They're trying to maximize their odds of winning the Super Bowl this year, and investing a first-rounder in a backup is a poor way of going all-in.

The Steelers might consider Simpson at No. 21 … but I expect veteran Aaron Rodgers to re-sign with the team eventually, and does the team (and HC Mike McCarthy) really want to put a rookie behind Rodgers for his final season? I'm skeptical.

But the top of Round 2? Yes, that's the spot where I could see the Jets taking him at No. 33, Cardinals at No. 34 and Browns at No. 39.

To me, Simpson looks like a classic Round 2 QB. There are legitimate reasons to like him. He was a five-star recruit entering college, and in his final season—his first as a starter—he was a good passer (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs on a 64.5% completion rate).

But he has significant issues as a prospect. He's not big (6-1, 211 lbs.). He had just 15 starts in college. He did little as a runner this past season (93 yards). And his play fell off in the second half of 2025 (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

He might go in Round 1 … but he shouldn't.

Either way, I think it's maybe a 50/50 prop—but the market's pricing under 1.5 QBs in Round 1 as if it has only a 37.0% chance of happening. I like those odds.

Under 1.5 Running Backs Drafted in Round 1

• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Odds: -900
• Implied Probability: 90.0%.

This bet almost certainly comes down to RB Jadarian Price (Notre Dame).

Daniel Jeremiah recently put Price in his Round 1 mock … at No. 32.

But here's the thing:

• I respect Jeremiah, but he's just one guy, and he's the only sharp mocker I've seen recently include Price.
• It's No. 32—the last pick in Round 1. Come on!

Here's another thing: Not many teams need RBs after free agency. 

And it's not the most financially prudent decision to take an RB in Round 1.

Price is No. 46 at NFL Mock Draft Database. I have him at No. 56. To me, he was a clear combine loser. 

While some guys ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.3 seconds, Price managed a more pedestrian time of 4.49 seconds (at a modest 5-11, 203 lbs.). While that number is fine on its own, it's accompanied by a downright scary 10-yard split of 1.61 seconds (second-worst mark in the class).

With average speed and subpar burst, Price is not the kind of runner a team should take in the top 32.

I think the odds of fewer than two RBs going in Round 1 are around 95%.

Under 4.5 Cornerbacks Drafted in Round 1

• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Odds: -235
• Implied Probability: 70.2%.

On both NFL Mock Draft Database and Grinding the Mocks, there are three CBs in the top 32.

• Mansoor Delane (LSU)
• Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)
• Avieon Terrell (Clemson)

On my big board, I also have CBs Colton Hood (No. 28) and Brandon Cisse (No. 29) in the top 32—but I know that they're borderline first-round guys, and I have only four CBs in my most recent mock.

On top of that, 84% of recent sharp mocks have fewer than five CBs in Round 1.

Under 2.5 Safeties Drafted in Round 1

• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Odds: +180
• Implied Probability: 35.7%.

I've mentioned this before: Safeties often fall in the draft.

Last year, Nick Emmanwori was a consensus first-rounder. He fell to Round 2. The same with Brian Branch in 2023.

In 2022, Kyle Hamilton was one of the best players in the class. He fell to No. 14.

In 2021, Tre'von Moehrig—to my eternal chagrin—fell out of Round 1 despite being widely mocked there. The same happened with Xavier McKinney in 2020.

In 2018, both Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James—two future first-team All-Pros—fell past their elevated spots in consensus big boards and mocks and respectively landed at Nos. 11 & 17.

Here's why I bring all this up.

Most big boards currently have three safeties in the top 32.

• Caleb Downs (Ohio State)
• Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)
• Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

But safeties fall. I have McNeil-Warren at No. 33 on my board. If he went in Round 1, it wouldn't be a surprise. But I see him as a borderline guy.

And 48% of recent sharp mocks have fewer than three safeties in Round 1.

I think this is a true coinflip, so I'll take the plus odds.

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