The NFL Draft is truly one of the best times of year for sports bettors. Beating the sportsbooks consistently while betting on NFL games can feel impossible at times. They have the best data in the world at their disposal, and even the best bettors are only winning 55-60% of their bets.

But for the NFL Draft? The playing field is a lot more level. Everyone is dealing with the same lack of information. Most front offices keep their cards very close to their chest, so everyone is in the same boat when trying to figure out their plans.

That can make betting on the NFL Draft extremely profitable. It requires some work, but if you’re willing to put in the effort, there is money to be made at the end of April.

Let’s dive into three of the biggest tips for those looking to dive into the NFL Draft betting streets over the coming months.

RELATED: Our complete and free 2026 NFL Draft Guide.

Three Keys On How To Bet The 2026 NFL Draft

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

This is a popular investment strategy, but it applies to betting on the NFL Draft as well. In the stock market, this refers to buying a stock in anticipation of positive news and then selling when that news becomes reality. That allows traders to lock in a profit.

For the NFL Draft, this strategy requires you to be an absolute news hound. I’m not talking about turning out tweet notifications for guys like Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport. Once those guys are reporting on it, it’s basically already too late. Instead, you’ll need to monitor the local beat reporters and NFL Draft insiders. Those guys have their fingers on the pulse of the 32 NFL front offices, and they will often “leak” information to their followers.

That is easier said than done. It requires following social media, listening to podcasts and digesting as much written content as you can find. We’ll do our best to help you here at Fantasy Life, but speed is of the essence when it comes to betting on the NFL Draft. You’ll see guys move from +1000 to +100 in the blink of an eye once a rumor starts to gain steam, so you need to strike while the iron is hot.

By following the rumor mill, you should be able to amass a portfolio of tickets with positive closing-line value. If you can get guys as underdogs who end up closing as favorites, that’s a great way to have a very successful NFL Draft.

Embrace the Chaos

Tons of people are obsessed with the NFL Draft process. They know the players, they monitor the Scouting Combine and they digest all the news. There are thousands of mock drafts completed before the first round kicks off, and yet, there are still curveballs that throw us for a loop every single season.

Remember the 2024 NFL Draft? No one thought the Falcons would be in the market for a quarterback after signing Kirk Cousins in the offseason, yet they shocked the world by selecting Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. That resulted in J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix also coming off the board in the first 12 picks, putting a whopping six quarterbacks inside the top half of the first round. The first defensive player didn’t come off the board until pick No. 15, with the Colts selecting Laitau Latu.

Last year’s draft was dominated by the slide of Shedeur Sanders. He was someone the public believed to be a lock for the first round, possibly in contention to be selected as early as second overall. Even the most pessimistic Sanders faders didn’t expect him to slide all the way to the fifth round.

In short, we’re not nearly as good at predicting the NFL Draft as we think we are. That makes the value in buying up the longshots. There is very little money to be made by betting on what everyone expects to happen. Instead, look for opportunities to zig while the public is zagging.

Two of my favorite markets for this are “player to be selected by a certain team” and “position for a team to select with their first pick.” For the specific team market, the favorites are almost always overpriced, which allows you to hunt for big value with the underdogs. While you might not think a team in the 20s has a chance to draft a potential top-10 pick, crazy stuff happens in the draft all the time. Perhaps that player will have an unexpected slide. Perhaps the team you pick will trade up. Maybe a gas mask bong photo will be released right before the first pick (sorry, Laremy Tunsil).

The same is true for the first position drafted by each team market. You may not think a team is in the market for a receiver in round one, but what if they trade their first-round pick? Maybe they don’t get on the board until the third round, at which point, a receiver is the best player on their board.

Remember, you don’t need to be right all that often to be profitable with these types of bets. If you’re getting good numbers, just being right one time more than makes up for all the times you’re wrong.

Quarterbacks Tend to Go Later Than You Think

This nugget will always make me think of Matthew Freedman, who was literally pulling his hair out after the Falcons selected Penix in 2024. Freedman was a big Penix and Nix fader heading into that draft, and he ended up taking a bath.

That said, while it didn’t work out for him in 2024, his point is still a good one. Almost every year, quarterbacks slide down the draft board. For every guy like Penix who goes earlier than expected, there are 10 like Sanders who go much later.

I expect the 2026 NFL Draft to resemble 2025 much more than 2024. There is a clear-cut No. 1 prospect in Fernando Mendoza, and he is a massive favorite to go off the board to the Raiders at No. 1. But after that? There’s a whole lot of uncertainty.

We currently have Ty Simpson as the No. 2 QB in our NFL Draft Guide, but he’s the No. 56 prospect overall. Taylen Green is the only other QB inside the top 100, and he just barely makes the cut at 96. It would not be a shock if Mendoza is the only QB who hears his name called on the first day.

It only takes one team to fall in love with a player for him to go earlier than expected, and there are certainly a handful of QB-needy teams in the NFL. Still, I’m looking to fade this position pretty hard in Round 1.

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