NFL Week 13 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, and Props to Bet.

Welcome to the Week 13 best bets article.

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.

Spread: Steelers -5.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Play to: Steelers 5.5 (-120)

Things aren’t looking great for the Arizona Cardinals.

Here’s a look at their injury report as of November 29th (WED):

Michael Wilson (shoulder) DNP, Trey McBride (groin) DNP, Marquise Brown (heel) DNP
S Jalen Thompson (ribs) DNP, CB Antonio Hamilton (groin) DNP, Starling Thomas V (ankle) DNP

Yikes. That is three top receivers on offense and at least two starters in the secondary (note: Jalen Thompson did practice Thursday).

For Pittsburgh, the news is far better on the injury front, as four players missed practice on Wednesday, but it was all for rest purposes. They may also get a significant boost this week as S Minkah Fitzpatrick is practicing in full again and looks likely to return.

This game is also slated to have some rain, which means it could become a bit of a trench battle and that favors the Steelers, big time. Arizona has allowed 5.3 yards per carry over their last three games and is third last in success rate against the run this season.

We like to think of the Steelers as great underdog targets, but they are 2-0 ATS as home favorites this year as well. The move away from Matt Canada opened up the offense last week and likely helps them put away a hurting Cardinals team by multiple scores in Week 13.

You can tail the Steelers and the bets below at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for your new account below!

Spread: Colts -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)

Play to: Colts -1.5 (-110)

The Colts got another solid cover last week (they are 7-4 ATS on the year) against a not terrible Tampa Bay squad and now curiously are only favored by a point over the mostly struggling Titans (5-6 ATS), who clawed out a close win against the league’s worst team in Carolina.

Nov 5, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) runs through an opening defended by Carolina Panthers defensive tackle LaBryan Ray (93) during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts have been solid at putting away weaker competition this year as well. They are 3-0 straight up in their last three games, all of which were against teams with losing records and negative point differential—and all but one of their 5 losses have come against teams with positive point differentials (Rams -2.0 point differential being the only exception).

The Titans enter this week with a -39.0 point differential and ranked 28th in EPA per play on defense (and 24th in overall defensive DVOA). The legend of Mike Vrabel’s record as an underdog (29-22-1 ATS) may be part of what is holding this line from moving more toward the Colts, but the Titans, for the year, are just 4-5 ATS as underdogs—and this easily the worst team that Vrabel has coached over the last five seasons.

Jonathan Taylor’s (thumb - out) absence is also a factor in keeping this line where it is, but backup Zack Moss (4.8 YPC) helped carry this team to a 3-2 record early in the season and had a career day against Tennessee (23-165-2) in Week 5.

Given the Tennessee O-line issues (5th most sacks allowed) and the Colts' emerging defense (6th most sacks gained), leaning Colts to scratch out another win against a weaker opponent makes sense.

Total: Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins under 49.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Play to: 48.5 (-110)

In general, it has been a great idea to fade any games with high totals this season. So far in 2023, we have seen 10 games close with a total of 50.0 or more, and those games have gone 8-2 to the under (per The Action Network).

Even if this game doesn’t close above 50.0—and it’s already moved under that number—we do have plenty of other factors that lead us to thinking the points may not come fast and furious this week. The emerging Miami defense (10th in EPA per play, 10th in yards per attempt against) has helped keep each of the past five games they’ve played under 49.0 points, and Washington’s own beleaguered defense figures to get a small bump in morale after they finally fired their defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio, this week.

The other big issue here: the weather. We don’t have tropical storms or snow, but it’s likely we’ll see rain. There is a greater than 50% chance of precipitation for rain this Sunday, and rain tends to impact the efficiency of passing games by anywhere from 10-15% (or more) depending on severity.

Given how passing-oriented Washington is (67% pass rate—highest in league), this one could disappoint from a scoring perspective and be a great under target this week.

Prop: Dameon Pierce over 24.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Play to: 27.5
Projection: 33.6

The Texans were down for most of their game last week against the Jaguars, and that means they only handed off the ball 11 times to their RBs. It’s good to have context like this because if you were only looking at Dameon Pierce’s snap count (11), you’d likely be pretty worried about his role going forward.

Pierce is definitely going to continue splitting snaps with Devin Singletary, but the fact that he took 42% of the Texans' carries last week (on such a low snap count) shows they also clearly want to keep him involved.

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce will also be another week removed from an ankle injury, and we should expect his efficiency to grow this week and next as he gets healthier. He’ll also face the Broncos, who are 31st in success rate against the run and have allowed nine different RBs to rush for over 30 yards against them over their last six games.

This low total looks worth playing to the over for Week 13.

Prop: Samaje Perine over 15.5 receiving yards (-115, Unibet)

Play to: 16.5
Projection: 21.1

Let’s stick with this game and turn our attention to the other backfield for another potentially great over target. Broncos RB Samaje Perine has been a great signing thus far for Denver, producing 33 catches and 337 yards receiving through just 11 games.

Even though his snap count dipped a bit last week (and he only caught one pass) this is a player whom the Broncos are reliant on in hurry-up situations near the end of half and in pass-friendly game scripts (down late). He’s gone for 16 yards or more receiving in nine of 11 games to date and has seen a targets per route run rate of at least 25% in four of his last five games as well.

Given the efficiency of the Texans' offense and fact the Broncos are +3.5 underdogs this week, there is a far greater likelihood we see Perine get more involved as a pass-catcher. The over on his 15.5 receiving total grades out as a strong edge in our site projections as well, where he’s predicted at 21.1 receiving yards for the week.

Ladder target: Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards (bet365)

75+ (+150) - play to +145
100+ (+390) - play to +350
125+ (+925) - play to +850

Aiyuk has been a touch up and down this year (4 games with 4 or fewer receptions, and under 60 yards) but the highs have been exhilarating. Four times he’s cracked the 100 yard barrier, and three of those games saw him cross the 125 yard mark as well. While the 49ers trended more toward Deebo Samuel last week, who carved up the Seahawks' softer zone coverage with short passes, the Eagles are likely a better spot for Aiyuk to excel.

The Eagles' corners have had all kinds of issues limiting big plays downfield this year, allowing the third most receiving yards to opposing WRs this season. They’re also 6th in passer rating against.

Aiyuk is top ten in yards before the catch and also leads the league in aDOT (for players with 50 or more targets). This puts him in a similar profile to other receivers the Eagles have faced of late like Gabe Davis (6-105) and CeeDee Lamb (11-191), who both had field days against this unit.

Ultimately, Aiyuk just makes sense from a numbers standpoint. With Brock Purdy he’s now gone for 75+ yards in seven of his last 14 regular season games (40% implied odds vs. 50% hit rate) and has produced 100+ yards in five of those 14 games as well (20% implied odds vs. 36% hit rate).

You can play the over on Aiyuk’s regular prop (59.5 yards, DraftKings) which we have projected for a nice edge (70.1 aggregate projections), but laddering him and chasing the bigger payouts in this spot makes plenty of sense as well.

You can tail the ladder at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of just $1!