NFL Week 14 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.
Matt LaMarca highlights his favorite early betting lines to attack for Week 14 of the NFL season, helping you beat line movement that will come throughout the week.
In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.
The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.
That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.
Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 14.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles:
- Current Line: Cowboys -3.0 (-115; Caesars)
- Opening Line: Cowboys -1.0
- Target Range: Cowboys -3.0 or better
Matthew Freedman, Geoff Ulrich and I discussed the marquee 49ers-Eagles matchup in-depth on our Sunday live show. While Freedman and I disagreed on how to approach the spread in that contest — I liked the 49ers, Freedman liked the Eagles (suck it, Freedman) — we both agreed there was merit in targeting the Cowboys at -2.5 before that game kicked off.
Sure enough, the -2.5s are all gone at this point, and this number is even up to -3.5 at some locations.
If you weren’t lucky enough to jump on the Cowboys early, I suggest grabbing a -3.0 while you still can. Even though the Eagles have the better record, the Cowboys are clearly the better team on paper.
In terms of expected record, the Cowboys are currently sitting at 9.5-2.5. The Eagles entered their showdown with the 49ers at 7.0-4.0, and things are only going to look worse after another disappointing performance.
The Eagles have now been outgained in five straight contests. While they managed to escape the first four with victories, the 49ers plastered them by 23 points in Philadelphia. The 49ers also managed to make the Cowboys look silly earlier this season, but at least that game was played in San Francisco.
The 49ers are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league right now, but the Eagles’ previous performances are what’s really concerning. They survived against the Chiefs, Bills and Commanders, but the Cowboys are a completely different animal, especially when playing in Dallas.
Dak Prescott is putting up MVP-caliber numbers, and Dallas ranks third in EPA/play on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are fifth in offensive EPA/play and 27th on defense, so Dallas seems like the clearly superior squad.
With this line already on the move, grabbing a -3.0 is imperative while you still can. This number is heading to 3.5, and if it gets there, it might even flirt with 4.0.
You can grab +3 at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!
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Chicago Bears (+4.5) vs. Detroit Lions:
- Current Line: Bears +4.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Opening Line: Bears +1.5
- Target Range: Bears +4.0 or better
The Lions started the year looking like Super Bowl contenders, but they’ve been a flawed team over the second half of the year. Since Week 7, they’re dead last in EPA/play defensively.
That didn’t manage to hurt them Sunday vs. the Saints, who didn’t seem to realize the game started at 1 p.m. ET. They were down 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, which made the odds of them coming back extremely slim.
Still, the Saints gave it one heck of a shot.
They managed to cut the deficit to three points in the third quarter, and they had opportunities to secure a backdoor cover or win. Unfortunately, Derek Carr went down with an injury, and even though Carr isn’t great, he’s clearly better than Jameis Winston.
Now, the Lions have to deal with a Bears’ squad currently playing their best football. They’ve won two of their past three games, and they should’ve beaten the Lions in Detroit in Week 11. They were up 12 points with 4:15 left on the clock before ultimately choking down the stretch. Their offense has played extremely well with Justin Fields back under center, while their defense is miles improved from the start of the year.
The Bears will also have a rest advantage thanks to a bye in Week 13, so they’re another great team to lock in early. They’re currently available at +4.5 at most locations, but they’re down to +4.0 at Circa. That’s considered to be the sharpest sportsbook in the U.S., so I’d expect other locations to follow suit.
You can tail +4.5 at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
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Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens:
- Current Line: Rams +7.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: Rams +7.0
- Target Range: Rams +7.5 or better
This is another game that has opened right around the a key number. The Rams are listed as 7.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, but I think this number is clearly headed to seven. They’re already down 7.0 at some locations.
The Rams have looked tremendous offensively when healthy this season. They scored 37 points against the Cardinals in Week 12, and they followed that up with 36 points against the Browns in Week 13.
Dec 3, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (15) celebrates with quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) and running back Kyren Williams (23) after catching a 7-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens are going to represent a tough test, but with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams all rolling, I think they’ll be able to hold their own.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are still a bit of a question mark after losing Mark Andrews to an injury. Their game against the Chargers in Week 12 was much closer than the final scoreline suggested.
Lamar Jackson has historically been great as a home favorite, but getting 7.5 just feels like too much. Stafford has only been an underdog of at least four points in three previous contests as a member of the Rams, and he’s 2-1 ATS in those matchups.
You can tail the +7.5 at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 and your team wins!
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Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals:
- Current Line: Colts -2.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Opening Line: Colts +9.0
- Target Range: Colts -2.5 or better
The Bengals have yet to take the field in Week 13, but they’re double-digit underdogs against the Jaguars. Odds are, they’re not going to win that matchup.
However, the Colts continue to pick up unexpected Ws. They’re in the thick of the AFC playoff race at 7-5 thanks to an outstanding offense. They entered Week 13 eighth in points per game, and after scoring 31 against the Titans, they’re only going up.
Gardner Minshew continues to make a case that he deserves to be a starting QB at the NFL level. He’s prone to the occasional turnover, but he’s capable of making the throws needed to keep an offense moving.
This is another game where we’re hovering right around a key number, and three is the most important key number in football. If we lock them in at -2.5, the worst case scenario is this line moves to -1.5 or -1.0. That’s ultimately not that significant. However, the difference between -2.5 and -3.0 is massive, so the reward far outweighs the risk.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 32.5
- Current Total: 32.5 (-105; FanDuel)
- Opening Total: 41.0
- Target Range: Under 32.0 or better
Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Patriots. It doesn’t matter if it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe at quarterback: This team simply can’t score.
It’s borderline criminal what this offense has done for the defense of late. Their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in three straight games, yet the Patriots have lost all of them. That puts them in some rarified air:
What’s going to change in Week 14? If anything, they have a tougher matchup vs. the Steelers, who entered Week 13 fifth in the league in points per game. I don’t think they’re that good, but they’re still clearly better than the Chargers’ defense that kept them off the scoreboard on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are going to have to start Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Kenny Pickett is expected to miss an “extended period” following an ankle injury on Sunday, and Trubisky represents a clear downgrade. He couldn’t get anything going against a weak Cardinals defense on Sunday, so I doubt he fares much better against New England.
With unders continuing to smash in primetime games and low-total contests, points should once again be at a premium for both of these squads.
