Steelers at Colts

Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing loss on TNF to the Patriots, and the Colts had their own self-implosion last week against the Bengals. This line opened with the Steelers set as +2.5 underdogs pretty much across the industry and has moved a touch, with Pittsburgh’s spread getting shortened to where they are now just +1.5 underdogs at many sportsbooks.  

Indianapolis's injury situation is fairly light with LB EJ Speed and RB Jonathan Taylor being the two big names to monitor leading up to Saturday. Head coach Shane Steichen has said Taylor is expected to return this season but didn’t sound very optimistic when talking about his availability this week. He is getting close, though, and his activity is worth monitoring. 

The Steelers have more pressing issues. They are already down starting QB Kenny Pickett and have two linebackers in TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith in the concussion protocol. Luckily for the Steelers, they played on Thursday last week, so the defensive stalwarts have a couple of extra days to clear the protocol. Both men practiced in limited fashion on Wednesday, giving them a good shot at returning for this game. 

So how do we approach this for betting? Let’s dive in and see where the edges are for Saturday. 

Best Bet: Steelers +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Play to: Steelers ML +100

Coming off two terrible losses and with their playoff hopes in the balance, the Steelers look to be in one of the prime “buy-low” spots that have made Mike Tomlin a popular coach with bettors over the years. 

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) runs after a catch as Arizona Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins (25) chases during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh is 86-57-6 ATS under Tomlin in games that close with the Steelers set as either underdogs or favored by 3.0 points or less. Further, while the Colts have out-performed for much of this season, they were exposed badly last week by the Bengals, whose RBs broke a ton of big plays against their defense—a unit that now ranks 16th in overall EPA per play and 29th in success rate against the run. 

Both teams have turnover-prone QBs, but with LBs Alex Highsmith and TJ Watt trending toward playing, the chances of Gardner Minshew (13 turnovers in 13 games) turning over the ball multiple times seems high. Pittsburgh is certainly a solid money line candidate (+105) in this spot and also makes for a great teaser play (+1.5 to +7.5) if the line stays in the +1.5-2.5 range as well. 

Props: Zach Moss under 73.5 yards (-110, FanDuel)

• Projection: 68.7
• Play to: 71.5 (-110)

Moss, in his last three games where Jonathan Taylor was inactive, has rushed for 28, 51, and 70 yards, respectively—all despite averaging 16.66 carries over that stretch. 

The Steelers are also not an ideal matchup. It looks as if they could have both their starting linebackers (TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith – concussion) available after both men started the week practicing. Pittsburgh as a defense also ranks out 9th in EPA per rush and 3rd in success rate against the run. Last week, despite Ezekiel Elliott getting 25 carries—and both Pittsburgh LBs getting hurt—the Steelers only gave up 68 yards rushing for the game to the former Cowboy. 

You could also look to fade Moss’s carries in this spot (set at 18.5 at most sportsbooks), but with the Colts giving him so many snaps, I’d give a slight edge to fading the yards, a total he’s not come close to going over on in seven straight appearances. 

Ladder bet: Jaylen Warren rushing yards (DraftKings)

• 60+ (+200) 
• 80+ (+500) 
• 90+ (+800)
• Play to +180 | +450 | +750

I bet the over on Jaylen Warren’s total carries in our FREE bet tracker this week and do think this is a spot where Warren is likely to excel, both in volume and efficiency. 

The Colts' defense has gone downhill between the tackles since they cut loose LB Shaq Leonard and now sit 29th as a group in success rate against the run. Last week the RBs for the Bengals managed 229 total yards, and since Week 10 the Colts have allowed 5 different RBs to rush for 75 yards or more against them. 

Warren, as we know, is also very explosive. 

While he’s coming off a slow game, he did go for 80+ yards in three straight games, between Weeks 9 to 11—despite never seeing more than 15 carries in those starts. Even with those big games, and the good matchup, we’re still getting +500 and +800 (16.6% and 11.1% implied probability) to bet he goes over 80 and 90 yards. Warren’s a good buy low candidate and great ladder target for betting in Week 15.