Super Bowl Futures Picks Ahead Of Week 4: Trust Trevor Lawrence & Jags As A Longshot

The deeper we get into the season, the more data we can collect on each team, giving us clarity on the current landscape of the league. From a top-tier team that is grossly mispriced to a pair of contenders that are in a great position to compete for the number one overall seed, below is a breakdown of three of my favorite Super Bowl futures heading into Week 4.

Super Bowl Futures Picks for Week 4

Reminder: the goal of this bi-weekly column is to build a portfolio that will return a profit no matter who wins the Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200, DraftKings)

Since the start of the regular season, Trevor Lawrence has gone under the radar, quietly ranking in the top-10 in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and success rate while averaging 10.4 air yards. With Lawrence playing at a very high level, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been efficient on offense, climbing up to eighth in dropback EPA.

Even though the lack of protection Lawrence receives from his offensive line in pass sets is a cause for concern, the Jags' front five have fared much better on the ground, climbing up to the middle of the board in run block grade per PFF. The o-line’s ability to open up holes has helped Bhayshul Tuten fight off contact while bursting through the trenches, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

With the Houston Texans falling to 0-3, the Jags are currently in the driver's seat in the AFC South, creating a very favorable path to the playoffs. The schedule opening up in the second half of the year will also keep the Jags in contention for the number one overall seed in the AFC, giving them a massive edge to help make a run to the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks (+1100, Caesars)

Yes, we are double-dipping on the reigning Super Bowl champs. After thwarting the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, the Seattle Seahawks were on pace to put away Washington until a trio of turnovers burned them in the end. Loss to the Commanders aside, the Seahawks are still one of the more well-rounded contenders in the league, entering Week 4 ranked in the top-10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball.

In Sam Darnold’s first game back from injury, the Seahawks QB was able to air out the ball, throwing for 379 yards and four touchdowns while completing 68.88% of his passes. With Darnold expected to take a step forward with his production under center while shaking off his injury, the Seahawks offense will be able to complement the defense, drastically reducing the amount of variance they have to combat on a weekly basis.

With positive regression looming large over Seattle’s offense, buy the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at +1100 before they start to string together wins and plummet the number in the process.

Minnesota Vikings (+2500, BetMGM)

Like the Seahawks, positive regression is looming large over Minnesota the more Kyler Murray gets acquainted with the offense, making the Vikings a team to buy now before it all clicks together. When healthy, Murray is a dangerous dual-threat QB, giving the Vikings the versatility they need to keep pace with the top contenders.

On the other side of the field, the Vikings have been dominant on defense, ranking in the top-2 in defensive rush EPA while leading the league in dropback success rate. With the rest of the NFC North possessing glaring holes at key positions while the NFC West cannibalizes itself, expect the Vikings to steadily pull away from the pack and make a push for the top seed in the NFC.