A.J. Brown Dynasty Fantasy Football Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?
Sam Wallace breaks down the cases to buy, to sell and to hold WR A.J. Brown in dynasty leagues.
What in the world do we do with A.J. Brown in dynasty fantasy football? If you'll allow me a few moments of your time today, I'll outline the case for buying him, selling him and holding him. Stick around long enough, and I just might tell you how I'm approaching this fascinating situation.
Buy A.J. Brown In Dynasty Fantasy Football
If you're telling me that I have a chance to trade for one of the game's most dominant, physical wideouts in his prime who will either maintain his role as the No. 1 option for his team or earn big money to be the top option somewhere else, I'm making that trade every time.
Brown has averaged 82 receiving yards per game in four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles. He also hasn't scored fewer than seven TDs in any of those seasons. In fact, just last year (age 28 season), he finished as the WR6 in target share (30%) and was 15th among wideouts with at least 250 routes in yards per route run (2.09).
He managed that on an offense that averaged just 22.3 points per game (19th in the league), which was the lowest in Brown's four years with the team. I would certainly project the Eagles offense to get back on track and continue putting up points as they have in recent seasons.
Also, if you're deep into a certain type of analytics, the Eagles have alternated between 14 wins and 11 wins over the last four seasons. Guess how many wins they should have this year if the pattern continues for a fifth year? That's right, 14 wins. That means lots of fantasy points are about to be scored next fall.
If you're looking to add an absolute man of a wide receiver who can elevate your dynasty squad and give you the winning piece you need to make a title run, Brown is the type of player who can be a true difference-maker in your locker room.
We've seen wideouts remain productive deep into their 20s and even well into their 30s. If a team is willing to not only trade for him but give him a significant contract (which would likely be his last sizable one of his career), he's going to be a near-lock for 30%+ target share for another QB.
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
Sell A.J. Brown In Dynasty Fantasy Football
Wait, you're telling me that you want to trade for a soon-to-be 29-year-old who has missed six games over the last two seasons and has become the latest "disgruntled star player" who wants out of his current situation?
Sounds like a ticking time bomb, and you certainly don't want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
Sometimes in life, we have this perception that the grass is greener on the other side. We think a change of scenery is just what we need to finally feel content and fulfilled. But let's look at what the Eagles have done for Brown during his tenure:
- 2022 - Super Bowl appearance
- 2023 - Wild Card loss
- 2024 - Super Bowl Champions
- 2025 - Wild Card loss
Sure, the Wild Card losses don't feel great, but Brown has been to two Super Bowls (won one of them), has enjoyed 3 division titles, won 11+ wins in each season and made four straight playoff appearances. It's hard to have a better four-year stretch than that in the prime of your career.
Brown isn't a free agent, but the trade rumors have been swirling for a while now. However, Brown has $45 million remaining on a three-year, $96 million extension he signed back in 2024. The tricky part, in essence, is the guaranteed money baked into the contract ($84 million). If the Eagles trade him now, they would take on over $43 million in dead cap this season.
For now, it sounds like the Eagles are holding off on trading Brown until after June 1 so they can spread the cap hit over two seasons instead of just one. The downside there, though, is that it would be after the NFL Draft, and the Eagles won't be able to accrue any draft capital for the 2026 class, further pushing things down the road.
All this is to say there's no guarantee that if Brown is traded, he'll experience the same level of success. Sure, he might be happier (and more wealthy), but that doesn't always translate to fantasy points. Sell him while he's still in a Philly uniform and his value is at its peak.
Hold A.J. Brown In Dynasty Fantasy Football
The Eagles should hold onto Brown and so should you. He might be on the tail end of his prime, but he's a physically imposing wide receiver who still turned in solid numbers last season. In fact, at this stage, I'm more interested in his underlying metrics. Those will paint a clearer picture and let us know if what he is doing is sustainable moving forward.
As previously mentioned, he's still commanding targets at an elite clip, which means Jalen Hurts trusts him and so should you. Don't let the fear of a possible trade make you panic sell Brown. He's in a situation where, if you have him on your roster, his value is pretty well insulated:
- If he stays in Philly, he maintains his elite role
- If he gets traded, his contract will necessitate elite usage
That's it. Sometimes, we can make fantasy football harder than it needs to be. Brown is great at football and great at scoring fantasy points; keep him on your team.
Every once in a while, situations arise that cause confusion amongst the industry and we're not quite sure how to handle them. Sometimes, leaning into the uncertainty can be a great way to accrue value before the chips have landed and the landscape is clear. However, in cases like this, everything around Brown is just noise. It doesn't matter where he ends up; he's elite.
So ... What Should You Do With A.J. Brown In Dynasty Fantasy Football?
You've seen three cases for how to handle Brown in your dynasty leagues—buy, sell or hold. Personally, if my roster is even close to competitive, I'm firmly in the buy/hold camp. I believe he's too talented to just trade away short of a massive haul, and that likely won't happen because of the looming unknown of a potential trade this summer.
As laid out in the buy/hold sections, Brown has maintained a high level of play over four years with the Eagles. I genuinely believe there's a very good chance the two sides come to an agreement in the months ahead and that Brown remains in Philly moving forward.
However, even if the Patriots (for example) do trade for him, he immediately steps into a high-volume WR1 role for a young, ascending QB in Drake Maye. Maye might not be a better QB than Hurts (highly debatable already), but the coaching and overall offensive environment would be an ideal fit for Brown.
If you have different (or similar) opinions on how to manage your shares of Brown across your various dynasty leagues, make sure to check our Discord server and let me know your thoughts!
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
