Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Headlines 2026's Biggest Movers
Adam Pfeifer highlights the biggest risers and fallers in fantasy football ADP heading into 2026 relative to where the players were being drafted in 2025.
Find someone who loves you the way fantasy football players love drafting … in March.
It may seem insane, but plenty of drafts are being held every day, mainly over on Underdog. But it is a good way to pinpoint some early trends and changes following the 2025 season. Using the ADP tool, let’s highlight some (very) early fantasy football ADP risers and fallers as we enter free agency.
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Risers In Fantasy Football ADP Entering 2026
James Cook | RB | Bills
- Current Underdog ADP: 10.7, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 32.4
After an 18-touchdown 2024 campaign, many screamed regression regarding Cook’s 2025 fantasy prospects. But a career-high 309 carries and 14 more touchdowns later, the fourth-year running back finished as fantasy’s RB6 in fantasy points per game.
Drafted around RB13 during the summer, Cook is currently coming off the board towards the back end of the first round in early drafts. Buffalo promoting Joe Brady could be beneficial for Cook, who has really thrived in his offense. Brady took over as the Bills’ offensive coordinator in Week 11 of the 2023 season. Since then, Cook is averaging nearly 18 touches, 100 scrimmage yards, 0.90 touchdowns and 17.3 PPR points per game across 40 regular-season contests.
Admittedly, Cook’s lack of elite pass game usage could keep him from returning first-round value next year. Four other first-round running backs all saw a target share of at least 18% last year, while Cook lagged well behind at 8%. And according to the Utilization Report, he logged just 29% of the two-minute drill snaps. But as the lead RB in an elite, run-first offense, he should once again contend for the rushing title.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seahawks
- Current Underdog ADP: 5.3, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 33.1
119 receptions, 1,793 yards, 10 touchdowns and a Super Bowl ring? Yeah, it’s safe to say Smith-Njigba had a successful third NFL season. He was the focal point of Seattle's passing attack, seeing at least a 30% target share in all but four games. His 44.4% first-read target share and 35% overall target share both led the NFL, while his 31% TPRR trailed only Puka Nacua. With the Seahawks utilizing 12 personnel 30% of the time, JSN’s target competition remains uninspiring, especially if Rashid Shaheed signs elsewhere this offseason.
George Pickens | WR | Cowboys
- Current Underdog ADP: 23, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 54.9
Picture this—George Pickens playing wide receiver… but this time, he gets to actually move around the formation.
It’s a concept the Steelers failed to grasp. The Cowboys understood the assignment.
Last season in Pittsburgh, just 23% of Pickens’ targets were off in-breaking routes, while sporting a 22.4% target rate. But in his first season in Dallas, 43% of Pickens’ targets came off in-breakers to go along with a 27.3% target rate. No longer just a boundary option, Pickens transformed into a matchup nightmare en route to a career-best season (93/1,429/9 TD). In fact, Pickens’ production was right there with CeeDee Lamb’s when the two played together. Pickens averaged 7.8 targets, 5.3 catches, 77.1 yards and 14.9 PPR points per game alongside Lamb, while the latter averaged 15.4 PPG in the split. Playing in Dallas’ pass-heavy offense, there is enough for both Pickens and Lamb to shine.
Fallers In Fantasy Football ADP Entering 2026
Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | Jaguars
- Current Underdog ADP: 61.7, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 17.2
Who had a worse season? Brian Thomas Jr. in 2025 or Game of Thrones in 2019?
I mean, at least Game of Thrones had dragons …
Thomas was arguably the top bust in all of fantasy last year. He finished as WR42 in PPG (9.9) after being drafted as a top-10 wideout. Thomas was already disappointing to open the year, but he really struggled after the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers. After Meyers joined the team in Week 10, Thomas averaged just 5.2 targets and 8.9 PPR PPG. Jacksonville essentially deployed him as a vertical, boundary wideout, as 11 of his 31 total targets following the Meyers acquisition were 20-plus yards down the field (35.4%). He never saw more than seven targets in a game during that stretch, while trailing both Meyers and Parker Washington in both target share and TPRR. This time last season, Thomas was the clear alpha in a Jacksonville receiving room that is suddenly crowded. He’s the top faller, and for good reason.
Jalen Hurts | QB | Eagles
- Current Underdog ADP: 70, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 33.1
The Super Bowl hangover was in full effect last season, especially for the Philadelphia offense. Drafted as a top-four fantasy signal caller, Hurts finished as QB8, failing to average 20 fantasy points per game for the first time as a full-time starter. The Eagles lacked any sort of creativity on offense, deploying basic hitch route concepts more than anyone wished to see. Inept playcalling impacted Hurts, who failed to reach 200 passing yards 10 different times this past season. In early drafts, Hurts is coming off the board as QB7, behind Drake Maye and Caleb Williams.
Tyrone Tracy | RB | Giants
- Current Underdog ADP: 135.1, 2025 Yahoo ADP: 81.8
Following the drafting of Cam Skattebo, there was plenty of risk surrounding Tracy in fantasy drafts last summer. He opened the season as the starter, but a Week 3 injury paved the way for Skattebo to take over. During Weeks 6-7, Skattebo led the Giants' backfield, logging 56% of the rush attempts, while averaging 21 opportunities per game to Tracy’s 6.5. Of course, the rookie would go on to suffer a season-ending injury in Week 8, allowing Tracy to return to his RB1 role. There has been a ton of smoke around the Giants and free agent/rookie running backs this offseason, making it unlikely Tracy carves out a fantasy-friendly role in 2026.
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