Underdog fantasy drafts are in full swing and while it isn’t even April yet, the early ADP is a pretty good indicator of what your home league draft might look like once we reach the summer. Sure, things will change, especially with the NFL Draft about a month away. 

Looking at the early ADP, there are a few players that stand out as potential avoids for me. Again, so much can change, and while I certainly don’t dislike these players, I do dislike the value.

Players To Avoid In Early 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts

De’Von Achane | RB | MIA

• Underdog ADP: 13.2

I highlighted Achane as a post-free-agency fantasy football loser, and the more I think about it, the more I’ll likely be avoiding him in the first round of drafts this year. There is so much change in Miami right now, between the coaching staff, quarterback and wide receiver room. Achane is the only constant, and he should see plenty of volume.

It may just be a different volume.

Receptions have been a huge part of Achane’s game since entering the NFL. Over the past two seasons, Achane has averaged 72.5 catches and 86 targets, meshing perfectly with Mike McDaniel’s scheme and Tua Tagovailoa’s tendencies. But the changes in this Miami offense will directly impact Achane, especially his targets in the passing game.

Over the past two seasons, new Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has had a very healthy 15% scramble rate, while only sporting a checkdown rate of 6.7%. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.5% scramble rate and 14.5% checkdown rate during that same span. There also might be fewer designed/schemed targets for Achane with McDaniel no longer calling plays. His offenses have been very fantasy-friendly, involving plenty of motion, shifts and space creation. Last year, Achane saw 20 targets from motion, which was tied for the fifth-most among running backs. And in 2024, no running back saw more motion targets than Achane (31).

Fading a player with the home run-hitting ability of Achane is scary, but I’m expecting more doubles and singles than long balls this season.

TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE

• Underdog ADP: 48.3

Speaking of home-run-hitting running backs, Henderson posted four different runs of 50-plus yards as a rookie, but his usage was underwhelming, especially after being selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Henderson logged 43% of the offensive snaps last season, while commanding 42% of the rush attempts and 36% of the routes, all below Rhamondre Stevenson. The veteran also handled 88% of the long down and distance snaps, as well as 67% of the two-minute drill, according to the Fantasy Life Utilization Report. 

And during the playoffs, the utilization got even worse.

During New England’s Super Bowl run, Stevenson emerged as the clear lead running back, logging 71% of the snaps and 61% of the rush attempts. Henderson averaged just 8.8 touches per game throughout the playoffs, while playing just 31% of the snaps during that stretch. Overall, in games Henderson and Stevenson were both active, the rookie averaged under 11 touches and just 8.4 PPR points per game.

Henderson should see more involvement in year two, but this feels like a split backfield at the very best. And while everyone wants him to go away, Stevenson was strong last year, ranking third in yards per touch (5.9), 10th in yards per route run (1.45) and first in rushing yards over expected per attempt (+1.4).

Malik Nabers | WR | NYG

• Underdog ADP: 18.4

If he were fully healthy, this wouldn’t even be a discussion. But Nabers is coming off not only a torn ACL, but meniscus damage as well. And while the Giants are hopeful their star wideout is ready by the start of training camp, Nabers himself hasn’t committed to being good to go for Week 1. At the end of January, Giants general manager Joe Schoen provided an update that didn’t exactly scream confidence either.

“Malik is trending to hopefully be ready for training camp,” Schoen said. “Things can change … but that’s the hope.”

There’s no doubt that when on the field, Nabers is going to dominate targets. And with Jaxson Dart under center, the New York offense is on the rise. However, there is a chance we don’t see Nabers to open the season, and with other wideouts I like more being drafted after him (Drake London, Nico Collins, George Pickens), he is likely a player I’ll avoid until we get some more positive injury updates. 

Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ

• Underdog ADP: 39.1

You know, fading all of these immensely talented players is a dangerous game. But when we're talking about early rounds, all of these players are talented. Wilson is no exception, and he should see as much volume as almost any wide receiver in the game.

But that isn’t really anything new.

Since entering the NFL in 2022, Wilson is averaging a healthy 9.1 targets per game, the ninth-most in football during that span. And during his first three seasons, before only playing seven games last year, Wilson averaged a whopping 156 targets. However, that only translated to fantasy finishes of WR30, WR32 and WR18 on a points per game basis. The Jets offenses have been so bad, limiting Wilson’s overall ceiling.

Entering 2026, Wilson should once again contend for the league-lead in targets, but it once again may not lead to gaudy numbers. The Jets brought in Geno Smith to play quarterback, but he is coming off a season where he ranked 30th in EPA/DB (-0.17) and 25th in yards per attempt (6.8). With a career-best per-game finish of WR18, it feels like you’re drafting Wilson at his ceiling at WR17.

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